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【202302】安全与新兴技术中心-美国对中国人工智能企业的投资分析_68页_英.pdf
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【202302】安全与新兴技术中心-美国对中国人工智能企业的投资分析_68页_英.pdf
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Policy Brief
February 2023
U.S. Outbound
Investment into
Chinese AI
Companies
Author
Emily S. Weinstein
Ngor Luong
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 1
Executive Summary
Policymakers in the United States and abroad are increasingly concerned about the
national security implications associated with outbound investment, and some in
Washington are advocating for a potential outbound investment security review or
regime to address the national security risks associated with outgoing U.S. capital. This
policy brief analyzes data from Crunchbase on U.S. outbound investment into Chinese
artificial intelligence companies between 2015 and 2021 to better understand the
scope and nature of these transactions. This report aims to identify: 1) the main U.S.
investors active in the Chinese AI market, and 2) the set of AI companies in China that
benefitted from U.S. capital during this period. It also lays out potential implications
and next steps for U.S. policy. Our key findings include the following:
● Chinese investors remain the dominant investors in Chinese AI companies.
Between 2015 and 2021, at least 71 percent of the transaction value and 92
percent of the investment transactions with no U.S. participation came from
Chinese investors alone.
● Based on available data in Crunchbase, between 2015 and 2021, 167 U.S.
investors participated in 401 investment transactions—or 17 percent of 2,299
global investment transactions—into Chinese AI companies.
● Collectively, observed transactions involving U.S. investors totaled $40.2 billion
invested into 251 Chinese AI companies, which accounts for 37 percent of the
$110 billion raised by all Chinese AI companies. However, we do not know the
exact portion of the $40.2 billion that came from U.S. investors.
● Ninety-one percent of the observed U.S. investment transactions into Chinese AI
companies during the covered time period came at venture capital (VC)
investment stages, such as angel, seed, and pre-seed.
While Crunchbase data suggests that U.S. outbound investment into Chinese AI
companies is limited, such financial activity, commercial linkages, and the tacit
expertise that transfers from U.S.-based funders to target companies in China’s
booming AI ecosystem carry implications that extend beyond the business sector.
Earlier stage VC investments in particular can provide intangible benefits beyond
capital, including mentorship and coaching, name recognition, and networking
opportunities. As such, U.S. outbound investment in Chinese technology, and
particularly AI, merits additional attention and tracking.
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 2
The U.S. government is not currently in a position to effectively monitor, measure, or
regulate outbound investment flows to Chinese AI companies. This, combined with the
highly complex nature of these transactions, means policymakers should attain a full
understanding of the nature and scope of U.S. financial and technological support to
Chinese AI companies before proceeding to address any concerns, and doing so
cautiously. To this end, we provide a set of recommendations:
1. Identify clear policy objectives for any potential outbound investment
security review or regime. There is a sufficient amount of U.S. outbound
investment into Chinese AI companies to warrant further investigation with
clearly scoped objectives.
2. Devise a pilot program for collecting data on U.S. outbound investment into
China. Revise disclosure requirements for U.S.-based funds, as well as
disclosure requirements for U.S. firms investing in Chinese companies,
particularly those in sectors deemed critical to national security.
3. The U.S. Department of Treasury, in conjunction with the interagency, should
expand and revise the scope of the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial
Complex Companies List. The expansion could include privately-held Chinese
companies that can attract VC investments, as well as sectors critical to national
security beyond defense/materiel and surveillance.
4. Create a mechanism to prevent U.S. investment into Chinese companies on
the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Entity List. This could require divestiture
from Chinese companies on the Entity List and restrict future investment in
listed entities.
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 3
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 4
Background on the Chinese AI Ecosystem ................................................................................. 6
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 8
Assessment of U.S. Outbound Investment into Chinese AI Companies ............................ 10
Investment in Chinese AI Companies: Understanding the Trends .................................. 10
Transactions with U.S. Investor Involvement ..................................................................... 11
Transactions without U.S. Investor Involvement .............................................................. 16
Types of Chinese AI target companies ..................................................................................... 18
Types of U.S. Outbound Investment into Chinese AI Companies .................................... 20
Understanding the Intangibles Attached to VC Investment .................................................. 23
Top U.S. VC in China ...................................................................................................................... 24
Mentorship and Coaching ......................................................................................................... 25
Name Recognition and Building Strategic Networks ...................................................... 27
Limitations .............................................................................................................................................. 33
Next Steps .............................................................................................................................................. 35
Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 42
Authors .................................................................................................................................................... 44
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................ 44
Appendix A: Methodology for Identifying AI Companies and Cross-border AI
Investment.............................................................................................................................................. 45
Appendix B: Taxonomy of Primary Applications of AI ............................................................ 46
Appendix C: Additional Figures and Tables ................................................................................ 50
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 4
Introduction
Policymakers in the United States and abroad are increasingly concerned about the
national security implications associated with foreign investment. There are several
ongoing debates surrounding the rationale for a potential outbound investment
security review or regime. Policymakers who have advocated for an outbound
investment screening regime fear that U.S. capital is flowing into entities in China that
are actively supporting the Chinese military (formally known as the People’s Liberation
Army, or PLA), some of which includes taxpayer dollars through the retirement and
pension funds of public sector employees.
1
Others worry about safeguarding supply
chains—especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw a world forced
to reckon with the fact that China dominated critical supply chains around personal
protective equipment and other important materials.
Separately, others in the White House and in Congress are worried that the tacit
knowledge associated with investment into Chinese high-tech firms in areas such as
artificial intelligence poses national security concerns. In October 2022, new export
control policies aimed at China’s advanced node semiconductors and supercomputing
inputs attempted to lay the groundwork for future U.S. policies aimed at slowing
China’s progress in AI.
2
Just a month earlier, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
argued that AI is one of several “force multiplier” technologies, and as such, leadership
in these fields is a national security imperative, and the United States must maintain as
much of a lead as possible.
3
This report analyzes Crunchbase data from 2015 to 2021 on U.S. outbound investment
into Chinese AI companies to more effectively understand the scope and nature of
these transactions. It seeks to identify the main U.S. investors active in the Chinese AI
ecosystem and the set of Chinese AI companies that have benefitted from U.S. capital.
We find that, although there are several gaps in our ability to track and monitor these
investments, there is sufficient U.S. investment going into Chinese AI companies to
warrant further and closer investigation. In addition, we discuss how such investments,
and particularly the early-stage venture capital (VC) funding that accounts for the
majority of U.S. investment transactions in Chinese AI companies, can provide
additional benefits and support beyond pure capital. We reflect on the potential effect
these investments might have in the broader scheme of U.S.-China technology
competition. Based on these findings, we provide a set of recommendations focused on
increasing transparency and bolstering pre-existing policy tools.
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