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国际银行业统计数据和全球流动性指标.pdf
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国际银行业统计数据和全球流动性指标.pdf
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1/20
27 October 2021
Statistical release: BIS international banking statistics
and global liquidity indicators at end-June 2021
• Banks’ cross-border claims declined by $308 billion during the second quarter of
2021, settling at $36 trillion. Their year-on-year growth rate edged up to 2%.
• In contrast, cross-border claims on emerging market and developing economies
(EMDEs) expanded in the second quarter (by $7 billion), driven by greater credit
to the Asia and Pacific region, as well as to Africa and the Middle East.
• Banks’ consolidated foreign claims on China alone stood at more than $970
billion at end-Q2 2021, representing almost 18% of foreign claims on EMDEs.
• The share of offshore claims – ie claims denominated in a currency foreign to
both the lending bank and borrower – has continued to fall in major currencies.
• Foreign currency credit growth, an indicator of global liquidity, held up for credit
to non-residents denominated in US dollars and euros. Yen-denominated credit,
particularly to EMDEs, slumped. The rate of growth in credit to residents returned
to pre-pandemic levels while bond financing continued to outpace bank lending.
Cross-border claims decline in the second quarter of 2021
The BIS locational banking statistics (LBS) show that internationally active banks’
cross-border claims declined by $308 billion during the second quarter of 2021
(Graph 1, left-hand panel).
1
This left the stock outstanding at $36 trillion. Despite the
quarterly drop in Q2, the year-on-year (yoy) growth rate of cross-border claims edged
up from –1% to +2% due to a positive base effect following the sharp contraction a
year earlier at the onset of Covid-19 (centre panel). Claims on EMDEs and offshore
centres expanded by 3% yoy each.
The drop in cross-border claims in Q2 2021 was almost entirely due to falling
claims on advanced economies (AEs, –$338 billion) (Graph 1, left-hand panel). Claims
on non-banks in AEs fell by $140 billion, mostly driven by banks located in Japan
(–$150 billion). The drop reported by these banks was mainly vis-à-vis non-bank
borrowers in the United States, reflecting recurrent factors. In particular, the decline
in Q2 2021 follows an outsized increase during the previous quarter; this pattern,
which straddles the fiscal year-end in Japan in March, has been evident for several
years.
1
Claims include loans, holdings of debt securities and derivatives with a positive market value.
2/20
Cross-border claims make up the bulk of international banking activity, which
also includes local claims (on residents) in foreign currency.
2
Examining international
claims separately by currency shows the extent to which overall growth is driven by
either banks and borrowers located inside the respective currency area as opposed
to those located outside. Graph 2 provides an overview of international claims
denominated in three major currencies – the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese
yen – and highlights three market segments for each.
3
International claims denominated in US dollars reached $19 trillion at end-Q2
2021 (top left-hand panel), continuing the relatively sustained growth observed since
2011. During much of the past decade, offshore claims – or claims denominated in a
currency that is foreign to both the lending bank and the borrower (green area) –
drove the overall expansion in dollar-denominated international claims. But since
late-2018, cross-border dollar claims on borrowers in the United States (red area) and,
to a lesser extent, cross-border claims of banks in the United States on borrowers
abroad (blue area), have grown more rapidly. As a result, the share of offshore dollar
claims in total dollar international claims has fallen from 62% in mid-2018 to less than
57% in mid-2021 (top left-hand panel).
2
International claims comprise cross-border claims in any currency and local claims on residents of
BIS reporting countries denominated in currencies foreign to those residents. The BIS aggregate of
international claims will understate the global total since (a) some BIS reporting countries do not
report local positions in foreign currencies (eg the United States and China); and (b) the BIS statistics
do not capture the international claims of banks in non-reporting countries.
3
For the US dollar, the three segments are (1) claims of banks in the United States on borrowers
abroad; (2) claims of banks outside the United States on US residents; and (3) claims of banks outside
the United States on borrowers outside the United States. For a discussion, see “Seven decades of
international banking”, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2021.
Banks’ global cross-border claims
1
Graph 1
Quarterly changes, by counterparty
region
Year-on-year growth, by
counterparty region
Quarterly changes, by counterparty
sector
USD trn
Per cent
USD trn
¹ Quarterly changes are adjusted for breaks in series and exchange rate fluctuations. The year-on-year growth rates are calculated based on
the adjusted changes for the past four quarters.
2
Includes international organisations and unallocated claims.
3
Includes central banks
and banks unallocated by subsector between intragroup and unrelated banks.
4
Includes non-banks unallocated by subsector.
Source: BIS locational banking statistics.
2
1
0
–1
–2
2021202020192018
Total
Advanced economies
EMDEs
Offshore centres
Unallocated
2
10
5
0
–5
–10
2021202020192018
Total
Advanced economies
EMDEs
Offshore centres
2
1
0
–1
–2
2021202020192018
Related offices
Unrelated banks
3
Non-financials
4
NBFIs
Unallocated
3/20
Claims denominated in euros have exhibited a similar pattern in recent years.
Euro claims reached $12 trillion in Q2 2021, up from $9 trillion in early 2017 (top
centre panel). Growth in international euro claims was fuelled by claims on borrowers
in the euro currency area (which includes cross-border positions within the euro area).
Such claims grew at 3% yoy in Q2 2021 (bottom centre panel), contrasting with
negative growth rates in the other market segments. As a result, offshore euro claims
fell from 20% of total euro-denominated international claims in mid-2018 to 16% in
mid-2021 (top centre panel).
International claims by currency and market segment
1
Graph 2
US dollar Euro Japanese yen
In per cent USD trn In per cent USD trn In per cent USD trn
Year-on-year growth, in per cent
US dollar Euro Japanese yen
¹ International claims comprise cross-border claims and local claims (on residents) in foreign currencies.
2
Cross-border claims on residents
of the currency area reported by banks abroad (in the centre panels, euro-denominated cross-border claims within the euro area are included).
Claims are in the domestic currency from the perspective of the borrower.
3
Cross-border claims booked by banks in the currency area on
non-resident counterparties outside the currency area. Claims are in a foreign currency from the borrower’s perspective.
4
International
claims booked by banks located outside the currency area on non-residents outside the currency area. Claims are denominated in a currency
that is foreign to both the lending bank and the borrower.
Source: BIS locational banking statistics by residence.
The shift away from offshore claims has been even more pronounced and longer
lasting for claims denominated in Japanese yen. Overall, yen-denominated claims
grew rapidly since 2015, exceeding $2 trillion at end-Q2 2021 (top right-hand panel).
60
50
40
30
15
10
5
0
2119171513110907
Share of offshore claims (lhs)
20
15
10
5
15
10
5
0
2119171513110907
On borrowers in currency area
2
From banks in currency area
3
Offshore claims
4
Amounts outstanding (rhs):
40
30
20
10
1.8
1.2
0.6
0.0
2119171513110907
20
15
10
5
0
–5
–10
2021202020192018
On borrowers in currency area
2
16
12
8
4
0
–4
–8
2021202020192018
From banks in currency area
3
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
2021202020192018
Offshore claims
4
4/20
This growth has reflected an increase in yen claims of banks located in Japan on
borrowers elsewhere, with a sustained expansion observed since at least 2018
(bottom right-hand panel, blue line). The same is true for borrowers in Japan, with a
double-digit growth rate recorded in 2020 (red line). By contrast, offshore yen claims
have continued to contract, driving the offshore share in the global total to less than
15% by mid-2021, from roughly 40% in the early 2010s.
Claims on China drive overall growth in claims on EMDEs
Banks’ cross-border claims on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
grew modestly (+$7 billion) in the second quarter of 2021, following a surge in the
first quarter (Graph 3, left-hand panel). Cross-border claims on Latin America and
emerging Europe contracted modestly in Q2. By contrast, claims on Asia and Pacific
and Africa and the Middle East expanded (left-hand and centre panels). Overall, the
yoy growth rate of claims on all EMDEs moved further into positive territory (+3%).
Cross-border claims on EMDEs
Graph 3
Quarterly changes, by counterparty
region
Year-on-year growth, by
counterparty region
Quarterly changes, on selected
EMDEs
USD bn
Per cent
USD bn
Source: BIS locational banking statistics.
Claims on Latin America continued to decline in Q2 2021 (–$10 billion), albeit by
less than in the previous quarter. This brought the total decline for Latin America over
the past four quarters to more than $50 billion, or –9% in terms of yoy growth. Claims
on most major countries in Latin America have continued to contract during Q2,
including those on Brazil (–$7 billion), Chile and Colombia (–$1 billion each), as well
as those on Venezuela and Mexico (about –$0.5 billion each).
Claims on emerging Europe also contracted by $2 billion, after expanding by
more than $1 billion in the previous quarter. This was due to a drop in claims on
Turkey (–$5 billion) and Russia (–$2 billion), reported mainly by banks located in the
United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. In contrast, claims on both the Czech
Republic and Poland expanded by more than $1 billion.
100
50
0
–50
–100
2021202020192018
EMDEs
Emerging Asia and Pacific
Emerging Europe
Latin America
Africa and the Middle East
6
0
–6
–12
–18
2021202020192018
EMDEs
Emerging Asia and Pacific
Emerging Europe
Latin America
Africa and the Middle East
100
50
0
–50
–100
2021202020192018
EMDEs
CN
AE
MY
BR
TR
ZA
Others
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