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WEF - 2021年十大新兴技术 Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021.pdf
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WEF - 2021年十大新兴技术 Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021.pdf
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Top 10 Emerging
Technologies of 2021
INSIGHT REPORT
NOVEMBER 2021
Contents
Introduction
1 Decarbonization rises
2 Crops that self-fertilise
3 Breath sensors diagnose diseases
4 On-demand drug manufacturing
5 Energy from wireless signals
6 Engineering better ageing
7 Green ammonia
8 Biomarker devices go wireless
9 Houses printed with local materials
10 Space connects the globe
Contributors
3
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
17
18
20
22
Illustrations by Vanessa Branchi
Disclaimer
This document is published by the World
Economic Forum as a contribution to a
project, insight area or interaction. The
findings, interpretations and conclusions
expressed herein are a result of a
collaborative process facilitated and
endorsed by the World Economic Forum
but whose results do not necessarily
represent the views of the World Economic
Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,
Partners or other stakeholders.
© 2021 World Economic Forum. All rights
reserved. No part of this publication may
be reproduced or transmitted in any form
or by any means, including photocopying
and recording, or by any information
storage and retrieval system.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021 2
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021 3
Think of our planet’s grand challenges: managing
climate change; reducing energy use; sustaining
food production; improving global health. Many of
these efforts involve overlapping problems – and
the potential for interlinked solutions. It’s no wonder
the United Nations names “Partnerships” as its 17th
Sustainable Development Goal.
In this 10th edition of the Top 10 Emerging
Technologies, created by Scientific American and
the World Economic Forum, interlinking is front
and centre. With the acceleration of government
and industry commitments for decarbonization,
there will be an array of novel approaches in
low-emissions transportation, residential and
commercial infrastructure, and industrial processes.
Two such technologies – the production of “green”
ammonia and engineered crops that make their own
fertiliser – will improve agricultural sustainability. In
remote areas, 3-D printing with local soils will erect
stronger houses with less energy.
Because health is on everyone’s mind, this year’s
Top 10 salutes the rise of breath sensors that can
detect COVID-19 and other diseases, as well as
wireless biomarker monitors that make it easier
to diagnose and manage chronic illnesses. New
results from the field of genomics could allow for
the engineering of longer “healthspans”, and on-
demand drug manufacturing will result in tailored
medicines while helping to solve today’s supply
challenges with large-scale production.
To keep track of it all, the number of devices that
make up the internet of things is rapidly growing.
They will become more globally connected through
the use of orbiting nanosatellites and be powered
by energy harvested from wireless signals. The
future has never looked so interconnected.
Mariette DiChristina and Bernard S. Meyerson
Authors
Introduction
Innovations to help tackle societal challenges –
especially climate change
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021 4
More than a century after the first scientist
argued that carbon dioxide could trap heat in the
atmosphere and decades after “climate change”
entered the vernacular, countries and industries
have been making new commitments to cut their
carbon footprints. In 2021 the US, the second-
largest source of national carbon emissions,
committed to halving its output relative to 2005
levels by 2030. The United Kingdom announced its
own aggressive goal of a 68% reduction compared
to 1990 levels by that date. The European Union
Parliament recently passed a law requiring carbon
emissions reductions by at least 55% by 2030
compared to 1990 levels. Although industries
such as oil and aviation are more resistant to
change, the rate at which companies are joining
the Science Based Targets initiative, which helps
them reduce their emissions to stay in line with
the Paris Agreement, has doubled since 2015.
General Motors, Volkswagen and other major
auto manufacturers have set ambitious targets for
decarbonization in the past year.
This acceleration of commitments – along with
the associated challenges – is a clear indicator
of decarbonization’s emergence worldwide. It
will force a diverse suite of technologies to
“emerge” – that is, to demonstrate the ability to
operate at scale in the next three to five years.
To make this a reality, solutions that have already
been identified must mature and scale at greater
speed. Existing technology gaps will require
sustained innovation. Several broad areas will see
significant focus and growth.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Decarbonization rises
1
Sweeping commitments to address climate
change will birth new technologies
Bernard S. Meyerson
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021 5
Today 2% or less of global private and commercial
roadway transportation fleets produce zero
emissions, despite Tesla’s highly visible initial
success in driving consumer interest. Meanwhile
bulk shipping, both rail and seaborne, has devised
low-carbon solutions. Yet many of them, such as
the Coradia iLint, a passenger train powered by
hydrogen fuel cells and manufactured by Alstom,
have yet to be applied at scale. The barriers are not
just technological but also political, given that such
transformational programmes require significant
capital investment.
In the US, an estimated 13% of total carbon
emissions come from fuel used for heating and
cooking in residential and commercial buildings.
Reducing that number there and elsewhere
will require net-zero emissions HVAC (heating,
ventilation and air-conditioning) and passive solar
environmental systems to become commonplace. It
will also be important to switch to natural and novel
building materials such as renewable timbers and
low-carbon cement.
As renewable energy sources become abundant,
it will be necessary to employ them to decarbonize
pervasive sources of greenhouse gases. One
example is “green” hydrogen. When produced
without using carbon-based fuels, hydrogen can
become a non-polluting fuel while also serving the
chemical industry as a basic ingredient with no
carbon footprint. Similarly, if data centres, which
often require megawatts of electricity, are co-
located with the same renewable energy sources,
their carbon footprint is dramatically reduced.
Meeting the power generation goals set by
nations and industries requires a radical
expansion of photovoltaic, wind, hydroelectric,
tidal, nuclear and other zero-emissions
technologies. Some critical hurdles remain.
Reliable, efficient and affordable energy storage
at the industrial scale is nascent. Carbon-free,
fission-based nuclear energy (including disposal
of its waste products) that is both safe and
affordable is also still aspirational. To lessen the
pollution from existing fossil-fuel power generation
will require bringing on far more technologies that
capture, reuse and sequester carbon.
In the agriculture sector, protein substitutes such as
the Impossible Burger and Beyond Meat will need
to take over a much greater share of the market to
mitigate the massive levels of carbon and methane
produced in raising livestock. Data from sensors
connected via the internet of things will increasingly
enable intelligent land and crop management ,as
well as fertiliser and water use, aiding in further
carbon reductions.
In addition to the myriad technological challenges to
rapid decarbonization, nations must develop global
governance methods to ensure energy equality.
Emerging economies cannot face identical carbon
reduction targets that would stifle development.
Nations will also need to thoughtfully allocate
land to expand infrastructure for renewables.
And to ensure compliance with global accords,
governments will need global environmental
monitoring infrastructure, similar to the protocols of
the International Atomic Energy Agency.
REUTERS/Toby Melville
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