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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AND LIFE IN 2030

ONE HUNDRED YEAR STUDY ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | REPORT OF THE 2015 STUDY PANEL | SEPTEMBER 2016

PREFACE

The One Hundred Year Study on

Articial Intelligence, launched

in the fall of 2014, is a long-

term investigation of the eld of

Articial Intelligence (AI) and

its inuences on people, their

communities, and society. It

considers the science, engineering,

and deployment of AI-enabled

computing systems. As its core

activity, the Standing Committee

that oversees the One Hundred

Year Study forms a Study Panel

every ve years to assess the

current state of AI. The Study

Panel reviews AI’s progress in the years following the immediately prior report,

envisions the potential advances that lie ahead, and describes the technical and

societal challenges and opportunities these advances raise, including in such arenas as

ethics, economics, and the design of systems compatible with human cognition. The

overarching purpose of the One Hundred Year Study’s periodic expert review is to

provide a collected and connected set of reections about AI and its inuences as the

eld advances. The studies are expected to develop syntheses and assessments that

provide expert-informed guidance for directions in

AI research, development, and systems design, as well as programs and policies to

help ensure that these systems broadly benet individuals and society.

The One Hundred Year Study is modeled on an earlier eort informally known as

the “AAAI Asilomar Study.” During 2008-2009, the then president of the Association

for the Advancement of Articial Intelligence (AAAI), Eric Horvitz, assembled a

group of AI experts from multiple institutions and areas of the eld, along with

scholars of cognitive science, philosophy, and law. Working in distributed subgroups,

the participants addressed near-term AI developments, long-term possibilities,

and legal and ethical concerns, and then came together in a three-day meeting at

Asilomar to share and discuss their ndings. A short written report on the intensive

meeting discussions, amplied by the participants’ subsequent discussions with other

colleagues, generated widespread interest and debate in the eld and beyond.

The impact of the Asilomar meeting, and important advances in AI that included

AI algorithms and technologies starting to enter daily life around the globe, spurred

the idea of a long-term recurring study of AI and its inuence on people and society.

The One Hundred Year Study was subsequently endowed at a university to enable

“One Hundred Year Study on Articial Intelligence (AI100),” Stanford University, accessed

August 1, 2016,

https://ai100.stanford.edu.

The overarching purpose

of the One Hundred Year

Study’s periodic expert

review is to provide a

collected and connected

set of reﬂections about

AI and its inﬂuences as

the ﬁeld advances.

extended deep thought and cross-disciplinary scholarly investigations that could

inspire innovation and provide intelligent advice to government agencies and industry.

This report is the rst in the planned series of studies that will continue for at least

a hundred years. The Standing Committee dened a Study Panel charge for the

inaugural Study Panel in the summer of 2015 and recruited Professor Peter Stone,

at the University of Texas at Austin, to chair the panel. The seventeen-member

Study Panel, comprised of experts in AI from academia, corporate laboratories

and industry, and AI-savvy scholars in law, political science, policy, and economics,

was launched in mid-fall 2015. The participants represent diverse specialties and

geographic regions, genders, and career stages.

The Standing Committee extensively discussed ways to frame the Study Panel

charge to consider both recent advances in AI and potential societal impacts on jobs,

the environment, transportation, public safety, healthcare, community engagement,

and government. The committee considered various ways to focus the study,

including surveying subelds and their status, examining a particular technology

such as machine learning or natural language processing, and studying particular

application areas such as healthcare or transportation. The committee ultimately

chose a thematic focus on “AI and Life in 2030” to recognize that AI’s various uses

and impacts will not occur independently of one another, or of a multitude of other

societal and technological developments. Acknowledging the central role cities have

played throughout most of human experience, the focus was narrowed to the large

urban areas where most people live. The Standing Committee further narrowed the

focus to a typical North American city in recognition of the great variability of urban

settings and cultures around the world, and limits on the rst Study Panel’s eorts.

The Standing Committee expects that the projections, assessments, and proactive

guidance stemming from the study will have broader global relevance and is making

plans for future studies to expand the scope of the project internationally.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

OVERVIEW 6

SECTION I: WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? 12

Deﬁning AI 12

AI Research Trends 14

SECTION II: AI BY DOMAIN 18

Transportation 18

Home/Service Robots 24

Healthcare 25

Education 31

Low-resource Communities 35

Public Safety and Security 36

Employment and Workplace 38

Entertainment 40

SECTION III: PROSPECTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AI PUBLIC POLICY 42

AI Policy, Now and in the Future 42

APPENDIX I: A SHORT HISTORY OF AI 50

As one consequence of the decision to focus on life in North American cities,

military applications were deemed to be outside the scope of this initial report. This

is not to minimize the importance of careful monitoring and deliberation about

the implications of AI advances for defense and warfare, including potentially

destabilizing developments and deployments.

The report is designed to address four intended audiences. For the general public,

it aims to provide an accessible, scientically and technologically accurate portrayal

of the current state of AI and its potential. For industry, the report describes relevant

technologies and legal and ethical challenges, and may help guide resource allocation.

The report is also directed to local, national, and international governments to help

them better plan for AI in governance. Finally, the report can help AI researchers,

as well as their institutions and funders, to set priorities and consider the ethical and

legal issues raised by AI research and its applications.

Given the unique nature of the One Hundred Year Study on AI, we expect that

future generations of Standing Committees and Study Panels, as well as research

scientists, policy experts, leaders in the private and public sectors, and the general

public, will reect on this assessment as they make new assessments of AI’s future. We

hope that this rst eort in the series stretching out before us will be useful for both its

failures and successes in accurately predicting the trajectory and inuences of AI.

The Standing Committee is grateful to the members of the Study Panel for

investing their expertise, perspectives, and signicant time to the creation of this

inaugural report. We especially thank Professor Peter Stone for agreeing to serve as

chair of the study and for his wise, skillful, and dedicated leadership of the panel,

its discussions, and creation of the report.

Standing Committee of the One Hundred Year Study of Artiﬁcial Intelligence

Barbara J. Grosz, Chair Russ Altman Eric Horvitz

Alan Mackworth Tom Mitchell Deirdre Mulligan Yoav Shoham

STUDY PANEL

Peter Stone, University of Texas at Austin, Chair

Rodney Brooks, Rethink Robotics

Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachussets Institute of Technology

Ryan Calo, University of Washington

Oren Etzioni, Allen Institute for AI

Greg Hager, Johns Hopkins University

Julia Hirschberg, Columbia University

Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay

Ece Kamar, Microsoft Research

Sarit Kraus, Bar Ilan University

Kevin Leyton-Brown, University of British Columbia

David Parkes, Harvard University

William Press, University of Texas at Austin

AnnaLee (Anno) Saxenian, University of California, Berkeley

Julie Shah, Massachussets Institute of Technology

Milind Tambe, University of Southern California

Astro Teller, X

Acknowledgments: The members of the Study Panel gratefully acknowledge the

support of and valuable input from the Standing Committee, especially the chair,

Barbara Grosz, who handled with supreme grace the unenviable role of mediating

between two large, very passionate committees. We also thank Kerry Tremain for his

tireless and insightful input on the written product during the extensive editing and

polishing process, which unquestionably strengthened the report considerably.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Articial Intelligence (AI) is a science and a set of computational technologies that

are inspired by—but typically operate quite dierently from—the ways people use

their nervous systems and bodies to sense, learn, reason, and take action. While the

rate of progress in AI has been patchy and unpredictable, there have been signicant

advances since the eld’s inception sixty years ago. Once a mostly academic area of

study, twenty-rst century AI enables a constellation of mainstream technologies that

are having a substantial impact on everyday lives. Computer vision and AI planning,

for example, drive the video games that are now a bigger entertainment industry than

Hollywood. Deep learning, a form of machine learning based on layered representations

of variables referred to as neural networks, has made speech-understanding practical

on our phones and in our kitchens, and its algorithms can be applied widely to an

array of applications that rely on pattern recognition. Natural Language Processing

(NLP) and knowledge representation and reasoning have enabled a machine to beat

the Jeopardy champion and are bringing new power to Web searches.

While impressive, these technologies are highly tailored to particular tasks. Each

application typically requires years of specialized research and careful, unique

construction. In similarly targeted applications, substantial increases in the future

uses of AI technologies, including more self-driving cars, healthcare diagnostics

and targeted treatments, and physical assistance for elder care can be expected. AI

and robotics will also be applied across the globe in industries struggling to attract

younger workers, such as agriculture, food processing, fulllment centers, and

factories. They will facilitate delivery of online purchases through ying drones,

self-driving trucks, or robots that can get up the stairs to the front door.

This report is the rst in a series to be issued at regular intervals as a part of the

One Hundred Year Study on Articial Intelligence (AI100). Starting from a charge

given by the AI100 Standing Committee to consider the likely inuences of AI in a

typical North American city by the year 2030, the 2015 Study Panel, comprising experts

in AI and other relevant areas focused their attention on eight domains they considered

most salient: transportation; service robots; healthcare; education; low-resource

communities; public safety and security; employment and workplace; and entertainment.

In each of these domains, the report both reects on progress in the past fteen years

and anticipates developments in the coming fteen years. Though drawing from a

common source of research, each domain reects dierent AI inuences and challenges,

such as the diculty of creating safe and reliable hardware (transportation and service

robots), the diculty of smoothly interacting with human experts (healthcare and

education), the challenge of gaining public trust (low-resource communities and public

safety and security), the challenge of overcoming fears of marginalizing humans

(employment and workplace), and the social and societal risk of diminishing interpersonal

interactions (entertainment). The report begins with a reection on what constitutes

Articial Intelligence, and concludes with recommendations concerning AI-related

policy. These recommendations include accruing technical expertise about AI in

government and devoting more resources—and removing impediments—to research

on the fairness, security, privacy, and societal impacts of AI systems.

Contrary to the more fantastic predictions for AI in the popular press, the Study

Panel found no cause for concern that AI is an imminent threat to humankind.

No machines with self-sustaining long-term goals and intent have been developed,

nor are they likely to be developed in the near future. Instead, increasingly useful

applications of AI, with potentially profound positive impacts on our society and

economy are likely to emerge between now and 2030, the period this report

considers. At the same time, many of these developments will spur disruptions in

Substantial increases

in the future uses of AI

applications, including

more self-driving cars,

healthcare diagnostics

and targeted treatment,

and physical assistance

for elder care can be

expected.

how human labor is augmented or replaced by AI, creating new challenges for the

economy and society more broadly. Application design and policy decisions made in

the near term are likely to have long-lasting inuences on the nature and directions

of such developments, making it important for AI researchers, developers, social

scientists, and policymakers to balance the imperative to innovate with mechanisms

to ensure that AI’s economic and social benets are broadly shared across society. If

society approaches these technologies primarily with fear and suspicion, missteps that

slow AI’s development or drive it underground will result, impeding important work

on ensuring the safety and reliability of AI technologies. On the other hand, if society

approaches AI with a more open mind, the technologies emerging from the eld

could profoundly transform society for the better in the coming decades.

Study Panel: Peter Stone, Chair, University of Texas at Austin, Rodney Brooks,

Rethink Robotics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Ryan

Calo, University of Washington, Oren Etzioni, Allen Institute for AI, Greg Hager, Johns

Hopkins University, Julia Hirschberg, Columbia University, Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan,

Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Ece Kamar, Microsoft Research, Sarit Kraus,

Bar Ilan University. Kevin Leyton-Brown, University of British Columbia, David Parkes,

Harvard University, William Press, University of Texas at Austin, AnnaLee (Anno)

Saxenian, University of California, Berkeley, Julie Shah, Massachussets Institute of

Technology, Milind Tambe, University of Southern California, Astro Teller, X

Standing Committee of the One Hundred Year Study of Artiﬁcial Intelligence:

Barbara J. Grosz, Chair, Russ Altman, Eric Horvitz, Alan Mackworth, Tom Mitchell,

Deidre Mulligan, Yoav Shoham

While drawing on common

research and technologies,

AI systems are specialized

to accomplish particular

tasks. Each application

requires years of focused

research and a careful,

unique construction.

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