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2 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON CONTROL SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY
precursors. But for some batch processes, it is impractical to
conduct enough trial runs owing to their long batch durations,
expensive run trials or environment reasons. In this situa-
tion, only a limited number of batches can be used for the
development of fault detection model, which arouses difficulty
for phase analysis and statistical modeling. To address this
problem, Lu et al. [14] extracted the local covariance structure
of the data within a moving-window and constructed the
monitoring model in each phase of the batch process. Later,
Zhao [15], and Zhao and Zhang [16] developed batch process
monitoring and diagnosis scheme for limited modeling batches
by introducing a generalized moving window to analyze the
changes of process characteristics. In conclusion, most of
these methods extract the local process characteristics within
a generalized moving window along time instead of analyzing
the batch-wise variations. In practice, however, due to many
factors such as throughput changes, unmeasured disturbances,
and human interventions, the nonstationary problem widely
exists in the real industrial processes [17]–[19]. Box et al. [17]
have stated that the time series is nonstationary if its statistical
characteristics such as mean and variance change with time.
Byon et al. [18] have mentioned that the process variables
and output of the process change with time due to the internal
and external factors so that the process has the nonstationary
properties. Therefore, without the batch normalization step
through the batchwise, the nonstationarity cannot be efficiently
removed by time-wise normalization even within the same
phase. To be specific, the mean values of the nonstationary
variables are still time varying and the interval of fault-free
data is very wide in each phase. As a result, the fault signal,
especially the incipient fault, may be buried by nonstationary
trends resulting in low fault detection rate, and incipient
fault detection for nonstationary process becomes a difficult
task [19].
Here, incipient faults refer to the faults that happen in
the initial phase usually with small magnitudes [20], [21].
Therefore, two categories of incipient faults including gradual
incipient faults and abrupt incipient faults have been con-
sidered in this paper. The gradual incipient faults refer to
the faults with early changing or slow development. And
the abrupt incipient fault refers to a minor step fault before
developing into a significant abnormal symptom. Because the
incipient fault usually has a small magnitude, it is more
difficult to detect and further isolate than the serious fault.
Especially when the process has nonstationary characteristics,
the incipient fault may be buried by the time-varying trend
of the nonstationary variables. The incipient faults may cause
many serious problems such as the decline of product quality
and accidents if they are not monitored timely, so the incip-
ient fault detection and diagnosis are a noteworthy problem.
Recently, different approaches have been developed for the
incipient fault detection [20]–[25]. However, most of these
methods have not considered nonstationary problem. And few
works have talked about incipient fault detection of batch
processes, in particular for the case with limited modeling
batches.
The objective of this paper is to provide a method for
incipient fault detection of multiphase batch process with
limited batches. To efficiently detect the incipient fault, three
main issues need to be addressed: 1) how to distinguish
the nonstationary variables from the stationary variables for
multiple phases and different batches; 2) how to detect the
incipient fault covered by the normal nonstationary trend;
and 3) how to extract the changing process characteristics
from limited batch processes. Since the incipient fault may
be covered by the normal nonstationary trend, the normal
equilibrium relationship among the nonstationary variables
should be investigated and extracted to distinguish the abnor-
mal behavior from normal nonstationary variation. However,
most of the traditional multivariate statistical techniques such
as PCA assumed that the process is stationary. In specific, PCA
can well extract the process feature of stationary variables but
cannot describe the relation among the nonstationary variables.
Although many variables present nonstationary characteristics,
in fact, these nonstationary variables always have a long-term
balanced relationship within the same phase. Cointegration
analysis (CA) [26], which is developed by Engel and Granger,
is an effective method for investigating the equilibrium rela-
tionship between nonstationary variables. However, the CA
model may be unable to reflect the real relationship between
stationary variables because an arbitrary linear combination
of the stationary variables presents stationary characteristics.
Therefore, the stationary variables and nonstationary variables
should be analyzed separately owing to their different data
feature, which has barely been mentioned in the previous
works. In this paper, a two-layer fault detection monitoring
strategy has been proposed for detecting the incipient fault in
limited batch processes. The main contributions and novelty
of this paper are summarized as follows.
1) A concurrent nonstationary variable identification strat-
egy is proposed which can efficiently distinguish the
nonstationary variables from the stationary variables
within each phase for multiple batches simultaneously.
2) Two-layer fault detection models are constructed in dif-
ferent phases to describe different process characteristic
of stationary and nonstationary variables, which thus
can well distinguish the incipient fault from the normal
nonstationary trend.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section II,
some preliminaries about CA are briefly introduced.
In Section III, a concurrent identification strategy of
nonstationary variables in each phase is introduced in
Section III-A. Then a two-layer strategy-based incipient
fault detection method is proposed in Section III-B. Online
monitoring strategy is described in detail in Section III-C.
The new proposed approach is demonstrated on the fed-
batch penicillin fermentation process and semiconductor
etch process in Section IV. Finally, Section V outlines the
concluding remarks of this paper.
II. R
EVISIT OF COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS
CA is an effective method to investigate the relationship
between nonstationary variables, which is first proposed by
Engel and Granger [26] and has been widely used in the
economic field by economists and statisticians over last three
decades [27], [28].