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Analysis and Decision of Regional Economic Vitality and its Infl
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2019APMCM summary sheetAnalysis and Decision of Regional Economic Vitality and i
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Team # 96234
2019APMCM summary sheet
Team Number : 96234
Problem Chosen : B
Team # 96234
Contents
Analysis and Decision of Regional Economic Vitality and its Influencing Factors ....... 1
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. 1
I Problem Restatement .......................................................................................................... 2
II Problem Analysis ................................................................................................................. 3
III Model Assumption ............................................................................................................. 4
IV Symbol Description ............................................................................................................ 5
V The Establishment and Solution of the Model ................................................................... 5
VI References ...................................................................................................................... 21
VII Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 21
Team # 96234 Page 1 of 22
Analysis and Decision of Regional Economic Vitality and its Influencing
Factors
ABSTRACT
The regional (or urban or provincial) economic vitality is an important part of
regional comprehensive competitiveness. In recent years, in order to improve the
economic vitality, some regions have launched many preferential policies for
stimulating the economy vitality, In order to study how to improve the regional
economic vitality, this paper takes Hunan province as an example to solve the
problem.
For questions 1 and 3: In order to analyze and evaluate the urban economic
vitality of Hunan province. This paper takes 14 urban areas in Hunan province in 2017
as the research objects, and studies the economic vitality of Hunan province in
combination with the current economic development status of Hunan province.
First of all, selecting 12 indicators about six aspects from the yearbook of Hunan
province, including the change of enterprise vitality ,the trend of population change,
the openness of capital strength, the level of science and technology, and the
comprehensive economic strength were selected to establish the index system of
urban economic vitality. Through the factor analysis of the indicators by SPSS
software, it is concluded that the main factors affecting the economic vitality are
science and technology potential factor and Social production and foreign trade
income factors, and the relationship between the indicators is established , and
based on the relationship between the indicators the relationship model is
established (the result is on the formula 5)。The influence of population change trend
and enterprise activity change on economic activity is positively correlated.
Secondly, the relationship model is used to analyze the impact of population
quality and quantity changes on regional economic vitality. the comprehensive factor
analysis method was used to analyze and evaluate the urban economic vitality of
each city and prefecture in Hunan in 2017. In order to quantify the influencing factors
of economic vitality, this paper uses the component coefficient matrix to sum the
scores of common factors by weighting, and takes the variance contribution rate as
the weights to obtain the comprehensive evaluation model of economic vitality of each
region: , according to the calculation, the top five
cities in Hunan province in terms of economic vitality in 2017 are: Changsha Zhuzhou
Yueyang Changde Xiangtan (The specific rankings are shown in table 7). In order to
verify the rationality of this model, this paper USES this model to rank the economic
vitality of each city and state in Hunan province from 2012 to 2017. The results
obtained are roughly consistent with the statistical data of Hunan province, so this
model has certain reliability.
Finally, based on the conclusions of the above model, in order to improve the
Team # 96234 Page 2 of 22
regional economic vitality, this paper puts forward that local governments should
strengthen investment attraction, increase the number of enterprises in the region and
introduce high-tech talents.
For question 2: in order to study the impact of economic policy transformation on
a certain region, this paper takes chang-zhuzhou-xiangtan city group as an example
to analyze the impact of economic policy transformation on this region from three
perspectives. First of all, the existing data from 2012 to 2017 are used to predict the
indicators after the economic policy transformation by using the cubic exponential
smoothing method. Then, by comparing the forecast data with the existing data, it can
be concluded that economic policy transformation can improve the vitality of
enterprises, enhance the capital strength, and thus improve the economic vitality.
For question 4: combining with the conclusions of the question about one to
three, from adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, strengthen the investment,
strengthen industrial enterprise economic benefits, open to the public five aspects to
provide some suggestion to help Hunan province each region's improve economic
dynamism and sustainable development and the regional economic vitality
Key words: Factor Analysis, Economic Vitality, Comprehensive Evaluation
Model of Economic Vitality, Cubic Exponential Smoothing
I Problem Restatement
1.1 The background of this paper:
The regional (or urban or provincial) economic vitality is an important part of
regional comprehensive competitiveness. In recent years, in order to improve the
economic vitality, some regions have launched many preferential policies for
stimulating the economy vitality, such as reducing the investment attraction approval
steps, providing the capital support to start-ups and lowering the settlement threshold
to attract the talented. However, due to different resource endowments, these policies
have different effects in different regions. How to seize the key factors and effectively
improve the regional economic vitality is a worth study topic.
1.2 The problems that need to be solved:
Problem 1: The regional (or urban or provincial) economic vitality is affected by
variety of factors. Take a region (or city or province) as an example, please build the
suitable relational model of influencing factors of economic vitality, and study the
program of action to improve the regional economic vitality. Analyze the effects on the
regional economic vitality change from the perspective of changing trend of
population and enterprise vitality.
Team # 96234 Page 3 of 22
Problem 2: Select a region (or city or province), and analyze the short-term and
long-term effects of economic policies transformation on the economic vitality of such
region (or city ore province) based on the suitable data surveyed by you.
Problem 3: Measuring the regional economic vitality is a complex issue. Please
select the suitable index system, establish the mathematical model which analyzes
and measures the regional (or urban or provincial) economic vitality, and rank the
economic vitality of cities in Attachment 3.
Problem 4: If you are a decision-maker of regional economic development,
according to the conclusions for Problems 1-3, provide a development proposal for
the region (or city or province) discussed in Problem 2 so that the economic vitality in
this region presents the benign sustainable development and the regional
competitiveness is stronger.
II Problem Analysis
From the perspective of biology, "vitality" refers to the energy input and nutrient
circulation capacity of the ecosystem, and specific indicators are the primary
productivity and material circulation of the ecosystem. It represents vigorous vitality.
The more frequent the input and output of energy in a system and the faster the
material circulation, the higher the vitality of the system.
After referring to numerous literatures, this paper combines "vitality" with regional
economy and gives an understanding of economic "vitality" : The economic "vitality" of
a region is affected by various factors. "vitality" is not the simple addition of various
elements in the region, it should be a certain structural characteristics and operating
rules formed, which have the interrelation and interaction of various elements the
overall function. The criterion to measure the "vitality" of a regional economy is
whether the economic development of the region is healthy, lasting and stable.
According to the requirements in the paper, Hunan province is selected as the
study area. It is because of Hunan province is located in central China, the middle
reaches of the Yangtze river, located in the eastern coastal region and the central and
western regions of the eastern coastal region and the transition zone of the central
and western regions, the combination of the Yangtze open economic belt and the
coastal open economic belt, with a hub position connecting the east and west, and the
south and north.
2.1 Analysis of Problem 1:
First, the selection of indicators in this paper should follow the principles of
systematicness, representativeness and data availability. In order to establish an
appropriate relationship model of the influencing factors of economic vitality, several
indicators were selected from the yearbook of Hunan province to construct the index
system of urban economic vitality based on the six influencing factors of enterprise
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