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COMAP, Inc. The UMAP Journal 40:2 August 8, 2019 9:33 p.m. D1924801.tex page 135

Time to Leave the Louvre 135

Time to Leave the Louvre:

A Computational Network Analysis

Vinit Ranjan

Junmo Ryang

Albert Xue

Duke University

Durham, NC

USA

Advisor: David Kraines

Summary

Increase in terror attacks has raised demand for safe emergency evac-

uation plans worldwide. We focus on evacuating the Louvre, the world’s

largest art museum. Evacuation is made difﬁcult by the volume and variety

of visitors; the Louvre management desires evacuation plans over a broad

set of considerations.

We partition the Louvre into sections and build an agent-based model to

simulate evacuations in each section. We run simulations over each section

to determine a rate by which agents exited. To connect sections, we represent

the building as a graph, thereby posing a network ﬂow problem. The strong

duality property identiﬁes bottleneck edges in the graph. Simulating blocked

passages or new secret exits is simply removal or addition of edges to the

graph. Bottleneck identiﬁcation is our highest priority for public safety.

Our model predicts that an evacuation plan using all four public exits

could evacuate the Louvre in 24 minutes. Furthermore, while many bottle-

necks surround the Pyramid entrance, the entrance itself is not a bottleneck.

This property of the Pyramid is crucial in emergencies, since it allows ac-

cess for emergency personnel. Additionally, securing the Passage Richelieu

is critical to evacuation, since its safety is directly linked to the Pyramid’s

safety. Keeping these entrances open and useful is imperative to both speed

and safety of an evacuation.

Our model is powerful due to its ability to model individual human be-

havior, followed by an adaptable abstraction of building-ﬂow dynamics. One

weakness of our model is that we consider worst-case scenarios, but the evac-

uation times are an upper bound for a real evacuation.

The UMAP Journal 40 (2–3) (2019) 133–160.

c

Copyright 2019 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use

is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for proﬁt or commercial

advantage and that copies bear this notice. Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights

for components of this work owned by others than COMAP must be honored. To copy otherwise,

to republish, to post on servers, or to redistribute to lists requires prior permission from COMAP.

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