2016年F题难民移民政策建模O奖论文1

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studiedresourcedistributionamongstcertaincountrieswhentheircapacitiesweredesignatedusingour

metric,implementedsystemdynamicsandconsideredseveralcountries’attitudestowardshostingof

refugeesaswellconsideredtheinclusionofother,nonEuropeancountriesashostsforSyrianrefugees.

Ourmodelalsosupportstestingofsuddeninfluxesofrefugees,additionofothercountriesoutside

Europe,idealcomparedtorealisticsupportfromcertaincountries,andtheeffectsofcontagiousdisease

onthesystem.Themodelisalsoscalable,andcanhandlelargenumbersofrefugees.Notonlydidour

modelreflectrealisticandinterestingresultswhendifferentfactorswereconsidered,butitalsoprovided

informationusefulinpolicyplanning.Usingtheagentbasedmodel,wedeterminedafairdistributionof

resourcesandoptimizationofrefugeeflowthatacceptsover93%ofthetotalrefugeesover91%ofthe

timewith95%confidence.

aquantitativemodeloftheeffectsofreallifequalitativeconditions.Westudiedthedelayingeffectsofan

endogenousissue,suchasanissuewithEurodac,thefingerprintingidentificationsystemusedwhen

processingasylumapplication,andfoundthatpositiveexogenouseventsofcertainmagnitudescould

counterthesedelayingeffects.Withcertainquantitativevaluesofpositiveexogenousfactors,wewere

abletoreturntheoverallsimulationtohave95%of1millionrefugeesbeacceptedtoEuropewhenan

endogenousdelaywascontinuouslyaffectingtheprocess.

agentbasedmodelingandratebaseddeterministicmodeling,weshedlightonthemostinfluentialfactors

inrefugeemigrationanddevelopedapolicytofairlysettleonemillionSyrianrefugeesinsafehaven

countries.

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understandingofthefactorsinvolvedwithfacilitatingthemovementofrefugeesfromthecountriesof

originintosafehavencountries.Throughthecreationofametrictodeterminecountries’capacitiesto

hostrefugees,andtheprogramminganddevelopmentoftwomathematicalmodelsandtheirtestingand

analysis,wehavecreatedaplanwhichwillallowfornearoptimaldistributionofonemillionrefugees

throughoutEurope.

ofcountrieswithinEuropeaswellasTurkeytohandletheflowofincomingrefugees.Fromour

calculationswedeterminedmaximumcapacitiesfordifferenthostingcountries,andfoundthatthebulkof

resourcessuchasfood,water,andimmediatemedicalcarewillbemosteffectiveifprepositionedin

Turkey,France,Germany,andItaly.Furthermore,refugeefamiliesshouldneverhavetobeseparated,and

thepotentialeffectsofnegativeevents(suchasaterroristattack)onpublicopinion.Thiscouldfacilitate

viralcampaignsorpromotionaladvertisementencouragingpeopletovolunteerorotherwiseassuringthe

Europeanpublicthathostingrefugeesisnotadangerousrisk.Increasingpublicawarenessandsympathy

fortherefugeecausewillincreasethesupportforthisplan,andwillhopefullyencouragetheparticipation

ofothercountries.DespitethedistanceofcountriessuchasChinaandtheUSfromSyria,theareaof

concern,thecapacityofsuchcountriestomaketheprocessmoreefficientisinvaluable.Asidefrom

actingashostcountries,bothownresourcesandhavemanypotentiallywillingvolunteersandsupporters.

Whilethereisanincreaseincostassociatedwithtransportingrefugeestothesetwocountriesoveralong

distance,ourmodelindicatedthattherewouldbeamorethan12%decreaseincostofprepositioned

efficiencyoftherefugeesfleeingfromviolencewhilebeingfairtohostingsafehavencountries.

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toEuropeovermultiplewaterroutes,withafewroutesexperiencingheavytraffic,namelytheWest,

Central,andEasternMediterranean[3].Traveloverthesebodiesofwaterandcrossinginternational

borderscontainsriskforrefugees,butanestimatedonemillionrefugeesenteredEurope2015toescape

violenceorthreatofdeathelsewhere[3].Inaccommodatingtheserefugees,Europeancountrieshave

establishedaquotasystemtodealwiththeover715,000asylumapplicants;however,onlyasmall

percentageofrequestsaregrantedandmanyrefugeesthatarelegitimatelyfleeinglifethreateningconflict

situationsaredelayedinresettlingtoasafehavencountryordeniedasylumentirely.Inthepast,

burdeningofcountrieshasvariedinthequotasystemsusedforsmallscaledistributionsofrefugees

alreadypresentinEuropeancountries.Thosewhoareburdenedthemostworryabouttheirabilitytohost

groupsassistingrefugees,modeltheflowofrefugeestoandthroughsafehavencountries.Additionally,

explorethedynamicsofyourmodelandconsiderfactorsthataffectrefugeebehavior,thecooperation

responseandabilitiesofcountries,exogenousandendogenousevents,scalability,aswellasdifferent

complicationsandnonidealaspectsoftherefugeesituation.Basedonthismodelandotherrelevant

information,developapolicyinsupportoftherefugeemodeloutliningconditionsthatwouldensure

optimalmigrationpattern.Theobjectiveistousemathematicalmodelingtocreateapolicyplanthatwill

providefortheresettlementofrefugeesandspreadtheburdenasfairlyaspossiblebetweenhosting

safehavencountries.

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