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管理系统模拟——03讲义-第3部分-Group behavior.doc
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管理系统模拟——03讲义-第3部分-Group behavior
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An Integrated Qualitative Simulation Method for Group Behavior
1 Introduction
QSIM
The qualitative value of a state variable is described as: QS(x
i
, t
j
) or QS(x
i
, t
j
, t
j+1
) = <qval
i
,
qdir
i
>, x
i
X, i{1,2,…,n}, t
j
or t
j+1
T, j or j+1 {0,1,2,…,m}. They are specified as follows:
qval
i
= , qdir
i
=
Causal reasoning
In this paper we use a basic causal graph (see Figure 1) to represent employee group
interaction. A is the cause variable and B is the effect variable. t
1
is the time point when A begins
to affect B. t
2
is the time point when B begins change. t
3
is the time point when the change of B has
been completed. D represents the effect of A on B, D{-,0,+}. For example, “-” means that A has
a negative effect on B.
Figure 1. Basic causal graph
If the change direction of A is “increase” then B will change as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Change of B
Our method
the behavior from employee groups is expressed in the following ways:
1
In Levels (“low”, “moderate” or “high”); and
In Change Directions (“decrease”, “standard” or “increase”).
2 Description and Explanation of Group Behaviors
The External Environment.
The Organizational Culture.
Management policies.
Group Structure
Figure 3. Schematic framework of an employee group system
2.1 An Example
a Centre for Information Management (CIM).
2.2 Variables
Let X
1
be the environment variable,
Let X
2
be the decision variable,
a group can be divided into several sub-groups: the leader, formal members, informal
members and independent members.
Let G
1
, G
2
,
G
3
and G
4
be state variables, which refer to the properties of the leader, formal
members, informal members, independent members and group, respectively. Let G refer to group
cohesion.
X
1
and X
2
are expressed as:
QS(x, t
i
) = <qval> (1)
Where x {X
1
, X
2
}, t
i
indicates that X
1
or X
2
changes only at a distinguished time point, t
i
{t
0
, t
1
,
…, t
n
} is a distinguished time point, qval {“-”, “0”, “+”}.
State variables G
1
, G
2
,
G
3
, G
4
or G
are expressed as:
QS(f, t
i
) or QS(f, t
i
, t
i+1
) = qval, qdir (2)
The time stages are:
t
0
, (t
0
, t
1
), t
1
, (t
1
, t
2
), ……, t
i
, (t
i
, t
i+1
), t
i+1
, ……(t
n-1
, t
n
), t
n
To describe the behaviors and interaction between members of the employee group, qval and
qdir are:
2
qval = (3)
qdir = {2-, -, 0, +, 2+} (4)
QS(G
1
, t
i
, t
i+1
) = (0, 1), 2+ for example, shows that at time point t
i
, the environment
variable or decision variable has a high positive effect on G
1.
This means that the speed of change
of G
1
is fast in the next time stage (t
i
, t
i+1
).
For state variables G
1
, G
2
, G
3
and G, l
k
refers to:
l
k
= (5)
For state variable G
4
, l
k
refers to:
l
k
= (6)
For example, QS(G
2
, t
i
, t
i+1
) = <(-1, 0), +> shows that the level of G
2
is (-1, 0) in time interval
(t
i
, t
i+1
), its change direction is “+”, and its change speed is moderate.
2. 3 Description of Behaviour
If X
1
or X
2
changes, the value of G
1
, G
2
, G
3
, G
4
and G will change correspondingly. However,
if X
1
or X
2
do not change again, G
1
, G
2
, G
3
, G
4
and G will revert back to their original values.
Based on the above regularity, the causality between variables A and B is illustrated in Figure
4. It is derived from Figure 1. The effect on variable B is also illustrated in Figure 5 corresponding
to Figure 2(a). Where L
1
{0, L
*
}, L
2
{-1, 0, 1}, L
*
is the new landmark value.
Figure 4. Causal graph used in this paper
Figure 5. Transition of B with D=“+”
“g” represents the state variable. g {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}. “0”, “1”, “2”, “3” and “4” indicate that B
is G, G
1
, G
2
, G
3
and G
4
, respectively.
“p” represents the change speed of B. p {1, 2}. “1” means fast, “2” means slow.
“h” represents the duration of T
2gh
. h {0, 1, 2, }.
3
Low independence
Normal independence
High independence
if f(t)= l
j
if f(t)=
(l
j
,l
j+1
)
Low cohesion
Moderate cohesion
High cohesion
When D = “-”, h = “” indicates that B does not return to its original landmark value after it
decreases to L
2
. This is illustrated in Fig 6(a), showing low group morale.
When D= “-”, h = “0” indicates that group morale is high, h = “1” indicates that it is
moderate, and h = “2” indicates that it is low. These are each illustrated as Fig 6(b) (p {1, 2}, h
{0, 1, 2}).
(a)
(b)
Figure 6. Transition of B with D = “-”
2.4 Distinguished Time Points and Landmark Values
At a time point, there is a change in environment or decision variables.
During time interval, new landmark is yielded.
4
Figure 7. The generation of the new landmark value L
*
2.5 Group Behavior Causality
Figure 8. Group Behavior Causality
3 Qualitative Simulation Methods
3.1 The Rules
Rule 1: Parameter setup.
Rule 2: Reasoning Sequence.
Rule 3: Calculation of the change of direction of B.
Rule 4: Calculation of p.
Rule 5: State transition.
5
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