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An Analytical Approach to Calculating

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An Analytical Approach to Calculating Probabilistic Estimates at Completion

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An Analytical Approach to

Calculating Probabilistic

Estimates at Completion

Steven L. Van Drew, PhD, PE

Naval Air Systems Command

Gary J. Clor, PhD

Army Logistics Management College

13 Feb 04 37th DoDCAS Van Drew & Clor 2

DSMC Gold Card

13 Feb 04 37th DoDCAS Van Drew & Clor 3

DSMC Gold Card

13 Feb 04 37th DoDCAS Van Drew & Clor 4

Outline



Background



Requirement for EACs



Calculation of EACs



EAC formulas in wInsight



Common EAC Formulae Usage



The Challenge



Derivation of Transformed EAC Probability

Distributions



Uniformly Distributed CPI



Triangularly Distributed CPI



Example Using Hypothetical Contract



Summary

13 Feb 04 37th DoDCAS Van Drew & Clor 5

Requirement for EACs



Contractor:



reports management estimate at completion (EAC)—

also known as latest revised estimate (LRE)—whether

submitting Cost Performance Report (CPR) or

Cost/Schedule Status Report (C/SSR)



comprehensive EAC developed at least annually and

reviewed monthly



Government:



earned value analyst assesses realism of contractor

EAC/LRE



calculates independent EAC

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