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201201Ethnic Diversity and Preferences for Redistribution.pdf
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Ethnic Diversity and Preferences for Redistribution
Author(s): Matz Dahlberg, Karin Edmark and Heléne Lundqvist
Source:
Journal of Political Economy
, Vol. 120, No. 1 (February 2012), pp. 41-76
Published by: The University of Chicago Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/665800
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41
[Journal of Political Economy, 2012, vol. 120, no. 1]
䉷 2012 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. 0022-3808/2012/12001-0002$10.00
Ethnic Diversity and Preferences for
Redistribution
Matz Dahlberg
Uppsala University, Center for Economic Studies–Ifo, and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona
Karin Edmark
Research Institute of Industrial Economics
Hele´ ne Lundqvist
Institute for International Economic Studies
This paper investigates the causal link between the ethnic diversity in
a society and its inhabitants’ preferences for redistribution. We exploit
exogenous variation in immigrant shares stemming from a nationwide
program placing refugees in municipalities throughout Sweden dur-
ing 1985–94 and match data on refugee placement to panel survey
data on inhabitants of the receiving municipalities. We find significant,
negative effects of increased immigration on the support for redistri-
bution. The effect is especially pronounced among high-income earn-
ers. We also establish that estimates from earlier studies failing to
identify causal effects are likely to be positively biased (i.e., less
negative).
I. Introduction
During past decades, the immigration of workers and refugees to the
European countries has increased substantially. Immigrants are obvi-
We thank an anonymous referee, the editor Derek Neal, Sven-Olov Daunfeldt, Robert
O
¨
stling, participants at the International Institute of Public Finance Conference in Cape
Town, the Journe´es Louis-Andre´Ge´rard-Varet #8 held in Marseilles, the 2010 Workshop
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42 journal of political economy
ously different in terms of their ethnic background compared to “the
average native” and, more generally, are overly represented among wel-
fare dependents. Coupled with the increased immigration, these dif-
ferences raise the question of how an increasing immigrant population
has affected natives’ views on redistribution and the size of the welfare
state.
In a comparison of the US welfare state versus that of most European
countries, Alesina, Glaeser, and Sacerdote (2001) and Alesina and Glae-
ser (2004) point to the historically much more ethnically heterogeneous
US population as one of the main explanations of its welfare state having
a more limited size. There are several potential mechanisms through
which ethnic diversity may influence the welfare state and the degree
of redistribution in such a way, but the main explanation that has been
put forth in the literature to a negative link between heterogeneity and
redistribution is that people exhibit so-called in-group bias; that is, peo-
ple have a tendency to favor their own kind and are more altruistic
toward others in their own group.
1
“One’s own group” may (but need
not) be defined in terms of ethnicity, implying that altruism would not
travel well across ethnic lines.
2
The aim of this paper is to provide new
and, compared to what has previously been established, more convinc-
ing empirical evidence of the causal link behind this idea.
Our main contribution is to identify the causal effects of increased
immigrant shares by making use of a nearly nationwide program inter-
vention placing refugees in municipalities throughout Sweden between
1985 and 1994. During this period, the placement program provides
exogenous variation in the number of refugees placed in the 288 mu-
in Public Economics in Uppsala, the First National Conference of Swedish Economists in
Lund, the 2011 Norface Migration Network Conference at University College London,
and seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank in Chicago, the University of Cal-
ifornia at Irvine, the Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, the Ratio Institute in Stockholm,
Uppsala University, the University of Helsinki, the University of Tampere, Stockholm Uni-
versity, the Norwegian Business School in Oslo, and at the regional development seminars
in Borla¨nge for helpful comments and discussions. Financial support from Handelsbank-
en’s Research Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.
1
An extensive theoretical framework for this idea is laid out by Shayo (2009), who, in
addition to modeling distaste for cognitive distance to other agents, also endogenizes
group identity. The equilibrium level of redistribution in his model decreases with the
size of minority groups, and the reason is that the increased distance to other agents in
the original group of identity makes identification with a less redistributive group more
attractive. See also the model in Lindqvist and O
¨
stling (forthcoming) and the discussion
in the overview articles by Alesina and La Ferrara (2005) and Stichnoth and Van der
Straeten (forthcoming).
2
Another mechanism through which ethnic heterogeneity may influence the size of
the welfare state and the degree of redistribution is the mechanism modeled by Roemer,
Lee, and Van der Straeten (2007) that operates via political parties. In their model, larger
immigrant shares reduce the welfare state and redistribution because parties favoring less
immigration often also favor less redistribution. This policy bundling makes it difficult to
distinguish a vote for less immigration from a vote for less redistribution.
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ethnic diversity and redistribution 43
nicipalities. By exploiting the source of variation in immigrant shares
in the municipalities induced by the refugee placement program, we
can estimate the causal effects on individual preferences for redis-
tribution.
3
Furthermore, a novel feature of our study is that we match the size
of the refugee inflow via the placement program to survey information
on individuals living in the receiving municipalities. As part of the Swed-
ish National Election Studies Program, the survey has been carried out
every election year since the 1950s and is advantageous for several rea-
sons. It includes questions on the respondent’s preferences for redis-
tribution, and most important, it is in the form of a rotating panel, with
each individual being surveyed twice and with half of the sample chang-
ing in each wave. This panel structure enables us to control for individual
fixed effects as well as for time trends in the preferences for redistri-
bution during this period. This means that, to see how increasing im-
migrant shares causally affects preferences for redistribution, we link
changes in an individual’s preferences between two elections/survey
waves to the placement program–induced change in immigrants in the
individual’s municipality over the corresponding period. If individuals
exhibit positive in-group bias, we expect this effect to be negative.
The existing empirical literature is suggestive—but not conclusive—
of positive in-group bias. Luttmer (2001) uses repeated cross-section
survey data from the United States (the General Social Survey) over a
period from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s and finds that increased
welfare recipiency among blacks makes nonblack respondents prefer
less redistribution but has little effect on black respondents’ preferences,
and vice versa for increased welfare recipiency among nonblacks.
4
Senik,
Stichnoth, and Van der Straeten (2009) use information from the Eu-
ropean Social Survey conducted in 22 countries in 2002 and 2003 to
study the relationship between attitudes toward immigrants, attitudes
toward the welfare state, and respondents’ perception of immigrant
shares (measured as deviations from the national average). Their esti-
mations suggest that negative attitudes toward immigrants are associated
with less support for the welfare state but that this correlation is un-
related to the perceived share of immigrants in the population. A third
related study is that by Eger (2010), who uses survey data collected by
Swedish sociologists and regresses four repeated cross sections from the
period 1986–2002 of survey-stated preferences for social welfare expen-
ditures on immigrant shares in Swedish counties, concluding that ethnic
3
Using municipal-level data is advantageous since a municipality is a rather small ju-
risdiction, implying that individuals presumably do indeed observe the refugee inflow
(which is a prerequisite for this approach to work).
4
An analysis similar to that in Luttmer (2001), on the same type of data, is also con-
ducted by Alesina et al. (2001).
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44 journal of political economy
heterogeneity has a negative effect. It should, however, be noted that
since there are only 20 Swedish counties, the aggregation to county-
level data poses problems for inference.
5
As with our study, the aforementioned examples all have access to
individual survey data, making it possible to isolate the direct link be-
tween preferences for redistribution and ethnic diversity.
6
However, al-
though existing research reveals interesting relations, the evidence is
best described as descriptive rather than causal.
7
To be able to draw
causal inference from estimated relations, it is required that the iden-
tifying variation is not systematically related to the outcome of interest.
There are two main reasons why this exogeneity requirement is unlikely
to be fulfilled in earlier studies and why we believe that our empirical
approach offers an improvement to existing work.
First, regressing preferences for redistribution on the share of im-
migrants in a jurisdiction (or on the share of some ethnic group’s welfare
dependency as in Luttmer [2001]) may capture reverse causality, as it
is possible that certain groups of people sort into neighborhoods on
the basis of inhabitants’ preferences for redistribution. We solve this
problem by using only variation in immigrant shares stemming from
what we argue was exogenous placement of refugees via the placement
program.
Second, earlier estimates of in-group bias in preferences for redistri-
bution are more likely to capture omitted factors affecting both the left-
hand-side and the right-hand-side variables. In Luttmer (2001), for ex-
ample, a welfare-prone individual is more likely to live in a high–welfare
recipiency area and is also likely to prefer higher levels of redistribution.
Additionally, in the study by Senik et al. (2009), who estimate the effect
of perceptions on attitudes, there is an obvious possibility of some latent
variable affecting both and thereby biasing their results. A clear advan-
tage for us in this regard is that, while existing studies have used cross-
sectional or repeated cross-sectional data on individual preferences, we
5
There is also a large, related literature showing that ethnic heterogeneity affects in-
dividual behavior in other dimensions as well. It has, e.g., been shown that it affects trust
(Alesina and La Ferrara 2002), participation in social activities (Alesina and La Ferrara
2000), charitable giving (Andreoni et al. 2011), collective action (Vigdor 2004), and the
size and mix of publicly provided goods and services (Alesina, Baqir, and Easterly 1999,
2000). Alesina and La Ferrara (2005) and Stichnoth and Van der Straeten (forthcoming)
provide overviews of this strand of literature.
6
In studies that use an aggregate welfare measure as the dependent variable, such as
total welfare spending per capita (see, e.g., Hjerm 2009), it is not possible to separate the
direct effect that works through a change in preferences for redistribution from the policy
bundling effect that operates via political parties. The same goes for those studies that
examine the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on (aggregate measures of) the size of the
public sector; see, e.g., Alesina et al. (1999) and Gerdes (2011).
7
This is also acknowledged by some of the authors. For example, Luttmer (2001) notes
that “caution with this causal interpretation remains in order” (507).
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