兰德-美国遏制俄罗斯最优策略：增加能源产出！并号召其他国家也这样做（地缘政治） -4-355页.pdf

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兰德-美国遏制俄罗斯最优策略：增加能源产出！并号召其他国家也这样做（地缘政治） -4-355页.pdf
Extending Russia
Competing from Advantageous Ground
James Dobbins, Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler,
Bryan Frederick, Edward Geist, Paul DeLuca, Forrest E. Morgan,
Howard J. Shatz, Brent Williams
C O R P O R AT I O N
Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
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of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized
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www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
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policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure,
healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the
public interest.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.
ISBN: 978-1-9774-0021-5
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3063
Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.
© Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation
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Cover: Pete Soriano/Adobe Stock
iii
Preface
is report documents research and analysis conducted as part of the
RAND Corporation research project Extending Russia: Competing
from Advantageous Ground, sponsored by the Army Quadrennial
Defense Review Oce, Oce of the Deputy Chief of Sta G-8,
Headquarters, Department of the Army. e purpose of the project
was to examine a range of possible means to extend Russia. By this, we
mean nonviolent measures that could stress Russia’s military or econ-
omy or the regime’s political standing at home and abroad. e steps
we posit would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime
purpose, although they might contribute to both. Rather, these steps
are conceived of as measures that would lead Russia to compete in
domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advan-
tage, causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or
causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and
inuence. is report deliberately covers a wide range of military, eco-
nomic, and political policy options. Its recommendations are directly
relevant to everything from military modernization and force posture
to economic sanctions and diplomacy; consequently, it speaks to all
the military services, other parts of U.S. government that have a hand
in foreign policy, and the broader foreign and defense policy audience.
e Project Unique Identication Code (PUIC) for the project
that produced this document is HQD177526.
is research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s
Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center,
iv Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and
development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the U.S. Army.
e RAND Corporation operates under a “Federal-Wide Assur-
ance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regu-
lations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law
(45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the
implementation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense
Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews
and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human
Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. e views of
sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent
the ocial policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S.
government.
v
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures and Tables
............................................................... ix
Summary
.......................................................................... xi
Acknowledgments
............................................................ xxiii
Abbreviations
................................................................... xxv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
Methodology
....................................................................... 3
Overview and the Central Argument of the Report
........................... 5
CHAPTER TWO
Russia’s Anxieties and Vulnerabilities ........................................ 7
Russia Since 1991
.................................................................10
Contemporary Russian Military
................................................14
Contemporary Russian Economy
...............................................21
Contemporary Russian Politics
..................................................29
Contemporary Russian Foreign Policy
.........................................37
Russian Anxieties
................................................................ 43
CHAPTER THREE
Economic Measures .............................................................47
Recent Russian Economic Performance
....................................... 48
Measure 1: Hinder Petroleum Exports
........................................ 54
Measure 2: Reduce Natural Gas Exports and Hinder
Pipeline Expansions
..........................................................59

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