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报告标题和描述提到了汇丰银行对全球信贷市场中绿色债券市场的展望，特别是关于环境、社会和治理（ESG）投资者的增长。以下是基于这些信息详细阐述的相关知识点： 1. **绿色债券市场概述**：绿色债券市场在2018年经历了8%的增长，主要由新兴市场（EM）去杠杆化、市场波动以及发行方转向发行社会责任或可持续性债券等因素影响。尽管供应增长放缓，但预计2019年的绿色债券发行规模将在1400亿至1800亿美元之间，这反映出对气候变化损害响应下的绿色资本支出增加。 2. **市场波动与EM稳定性**：2019年市场和新兴市场经济的稳定可能不会迅速恢复，这可能会影响绿色债券的供应增长。同时，由于绿色资本支出的建设速度难以预测，这也增加了市场不确定性。 3. **社会与可持续性债券**：预期2019年社会和可持续性债券的发行量将在400亿至700亿美元之间。这类债券对次主权发行者具有吸引力，并且越来越受到ESG投资者的青睐，因为它们支持社会和环境双重目标。 4. **ESG投资者的角色**：预计2019年固定收益投资者将更加关注ESG因素。随着穆迪和标准普尔等评级机构推出针对部分发行者的治理和ESG评分，这将推动投资者行为的变化。ESG投资者可能倾向于投资： - **纯绿色债券**：这些债券来自完全在环保市场运营的公司，相比工业公司的绿色债券，它们更受投资者欢迎。 - **可持续性债券**：相较于单一的绿色债券，ESG投资者更倾向于可持续性债券，因为它们涵盖了社会和环境双重目标。 - **联合国可持续发展目标（SDG）债券**：越来越多的发行人声明债券用途将如何帮助实现一个或多个联合国可持续发展目标，这种债券有望得到ESG投资者的支持。 5. **披露与免责声明**：报告中强调了必须阅读附带的披露和分析师认证，以及免责声明，这些构成了报告完整性的组成部分。这体现了金融机构在提供市场分析时遵循的合规性和透明度原则。 6. **HSBC Global Research**：报告提及可以通过https://www.research.hsbc.com查看HSBC全球研究，显示汇丰银行在全球金融市场研究方面提供了广泛的服务和见解。这个报告揭示了绿色债券市场的发展趋势，特别是在ESG投资者日益增长的背景下，以及它们对不同类型债券的偏好。此外，报告还提醒我们，市场波动和新兴市场动态可能对绿色债券的供需产生重大影响。

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Disclosures & Disclaimer

This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in

the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.

Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc

View HSBC Global Research at:

https://www.research.hsbc.com





 Green bond supply growth falls to 8%, on EM deleveraging,

market volatility and switch to sustainability bonds

 We anticipate USD140bn-180bn green bonds supply in 2019,

and USD40bn-70bn of social and sustainability bonds

 We expect FI ESG focus to intensify in 2019: this should boost

demand for sustainability bonds and ‘pure play’ green bonds

2018 green bond YoY supply up 8%; sustainability up 87%

Green bond supply growth slowed in 2018 to 8%, due to market volatility in much of

2018, a move towards EM deleveraging and some green bond cannibalisation, as

some entities chose to issue social or sustainability bonds instead of green.

We anticipate USD140bn to USD180bn of green bond supply in 2019 (ranging

between a 21% rise and a 6% fall versus 2018). Supply growth should re-ignite when

EM markets stabilise and as green capex rises in response to climate change

damage. But market and EM stability may not return rapidly in 2019; and the speed

of the green capex build out is hard to judge.

We anticipate USD40bn to USD70bn of social and sustainability bonds. Sustainability

bonds are suitable for sub-sovereign issuers and appeal to ESG investors, we think.

Rise of the ESG investor

We think that fixed income investors will focus more on ESG in 2019, partly as Moody’s

and S&P roll out governance and ESG scores for some issuers. ESG investors may:

 Prefer ‘pure play’ green bonds (bonds from firms operating wholly in

environmental markets) to green bonds from industrial firms

 Prefer sustainability bonds to green, as ESG investors value both social and

green goals

 Support the rise of SDG bonds, bonds where issuers declare how the bond’s use

of proceeds will aid one or more of the UN SDGs

Bond positioning

Given credit and market trends, we think investors should:

 Consider pure play green bonds ahead of green bonds from industrials

 IG: Consider short-dated USD multi-lateral green bonds

 EM: Continue to avoid EM green bonds as HSBC sees selective weakness

We close one trade and open one. Our open trades can be seen in Figure 19.

9 January 2019

Michael Ridley

Green Bonds & Corporate Credit Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

michael.a.ridley@hsbc.com

+44 20 7991 5918

Peter Barnshaw

Analyst, Credit Strategy

HSBC Bank plc

peter.barnshaw@hsbc.com

+44 20 7991 5022

Green Bond Insights

FIXED INCOME

CREDIT

Global

2019 market outlook: Rise of the ESG investor



FIXED INCOME

●

CREDIT

9 January 2019

The green bond market continued to grow in 2018, despite wider market volatility. USD149.2bn of

green bonds were issued in 2018 (excluding Fannie Mae multi-family green MBS), up 8.0% on

the USD138.1bn in 2017. 2018 green bond supply came within the lower end of our USD140bn-

180bn estimate (Global Green Bonds: Green light for green bonds, 7 November 2017).

So green bond supply was still up year on year, but the rate of growth slowed, we think because

of market volatility in much of 2018, a move towards EM deleveraging and some bond

cannibalisation, as issuers opted to issue social or sustainability bonds rather than green.

Of the 2018 green bond supply, 27.6% was issued by corporates, 33.4% by financials, and 12.0%

by sub-sovereigns (Figure 1). By region, 43.9% were issued out of Europe, 16.6% from North

America and 24.8% out of EM Asia (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Annual green bond supply by type

Figure 2. Annual green bond supply by

region

Source: HSBC calculations, Dealogic, Bloomberg

We exclude Fannie Mae green multi-family MBS data from our green bond figures

. If we

include Fannie Mae, USD169.2bn green bonds were issued, up 2.1% YoY on USD165.8bn.

We are seeing a rapid rise in social and sustainability bond supply. (Social bonds fund social projects

to assist one or more disadvantaged societal group, while sustainability bonds fund both green and

social projects). USD16.8bn of sustainability bonds were issued in 2018, up 87% vs USD9.0bn in

2017, while USD13.5bn of social bonds were issued in 2018, up 35% versus USD10.0bn in 2017.

Combining all numbers, USD199.5bn of green (including Fannie Mae multi-family green MBS),

social and sustainability bonds were issued in 2018, versus USD184.8bn in 2017.

______________________________________

Fannie Mae provides its data quite late, extends funds to clients to help them buy building as well as to make the

buildings green – so the numbers may be inflated, and we have little visibility on Fannie Mae numbers going forward.

120

160

13 14 15 16 17 18

Issuance (USDbn)

Multi-Lateral Financial Corporates

Sovereign Sub-sovereign ABS

US Municipal

120

160

13 14 15 16 17 18

Issuance (USDbn)

North America Europe DM Asia

Multi-Lateral LatAm EM Asia

Middle East Africa

Strategy for a warming world

 Green bond supply growth falls to 8%, on EM deleveraging, market

volatility and cannibalisation as issuers switch to sustainability bond

 We anticipate USD140bn-USD180bn 2019 green bond supply

 Heightened ESG focus likely to raise pure play green bond demand

2018 green bond supply

up 8% YoY

Sustainability bond supply

up 87% YoY



FIXED INCOME

●

CREDIT

9 January 2019

Green bond 2019 supply

We are confident green bond supply growth will re-ignite for several reasons. We expect

significant EM green bond supply when markets stabilise, as these countries decarbonise their

power production and transport sectors. And as climate change damages reveal themselves,

more firms will undertake green capex, in our view.

In this regard the three-notch downgrade of US utility PG&E due to its alleged role in California

wild fires

(Figure 3) struck home

. And the credit deterioration from climate change may be

quickening: German utility RWE was cut three notches in six years; PG&E in one (Figure 4).

Figure 3. Sharp selloff in PG&E's bonds

Figure 4. RWE and PG&E credit ratings

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg.

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg. N.B. Average of S&P and Moody’s used for PG&E and

average of S&P and Fitch for RWE. S&P’s rating withdrawn on 15/2/18 for RWE

So we anticipate for 2019:

 USD140bn to USD180bn of green bond of supply

 USD40bn to USD70bn of social and sustainability bond supply

 Which means USD180bn to USD250bn of green, social and sustainability bond supply

If we are correct, by the end of 2019 the green bond market will be USD565bn in size

(excluding Fannie Mae multi-family green MBS), and there would be USD107bn of social and

sustainability bonds outstanding

Are ‘real economy’ green expenditures rising?

We anticipate USD140bn to USD180bn of green bond supply in 2019, between a modest rise

and a slight fall, as we expect the market volatility that we saw in parts of 2018 to remain into

2019, and EM deleveraging too.

We do not anticipate rapid green bond supply growth in 2019 as we only expect a significant

increase in green bond supply if green expenditures in the real economy increase sharply, and

if more green financings to come to the market labelled as green bonds. Neither is certain.

We do not think that a green bond label in itself is powerful enough to prompt new green

project: while the green bond label makes it less costly for investors to find bonds that fund

green projects; we do not think this gain is sufficient to prompt new projects. So we think green

bond supply will rise if ‘real economy’ green expenditure rises. And ‘real economy’ green

expenditures is largely dependent on whether or not:

 governments commit new funds for green projects

 green technology falls in cost, making its cost effective to install without state subsidies

 the carbon price rises further; and new carbon price regimes are introduced

______________________________________

'Judge to utility: explain any role in deadly California fire', The Washington Times, 28 November 2018.

'PG&E bankruptcy talk sets stage for a showdown with California', Bloomberg, 5 January 2019.

These calculations take into account bonds that mature in 2019 and take the midpoint of our issuance forecasts

100

110

Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19

Price

USD600m 4% 2046 USD600m 2.95% 2026

USD450m 4.25% 2046 USD600m 3.5% 2025

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Average rating

PG&E RWE

AA-

BBB+

BBB-

Green bond supply growth

should re-ignite

‘Real economy’ green capex

growth is needed



FIXED INCOME

●

CREDIT

9 January 2019

Some real economy expenditure is happening, part of which can be financed in the green bond

market. For example, the German auto sector intends to roll out a set of plug-in hybrids and EVs in

order to meet EU 2020 and 2021 standards (see European Credit Outlook 2019: As the tide goes

out, 28 November 2018). Loans by these auto manufacturers to customers to buy these products

could be parcelled up and sold as ‘green on both sides’ ABS

. (For a fuller description of ‘green on

both sides’ ABS, see Global Green Bonds: Growth through innovation, 16 November 2016).

We also think that as climate change damages become larger, this will prompt a rise in green

expenditures by governments and some firms, especially adaptation spending.

Over time, green expenditures should expand in two ways. Within Europe, climate change

mitigation should expand beyond power and transport decarbonisation, into the building sector,

agriculture and ‘hard to abate’ sectors (vertical progress in Figure 5). In addition, the power and

transport sector decarbonisation seen in Europe, may spread to the US, China, India and the

rest of the world (horizontal progress in Figure 5). Economist Paul Krugman

remarked that

most US greenhouse gas emissions are from electricity generation and transport; the US could

cut power generation emissions by two-thirds by ending the use of coal and using more

renewables; and transport emissions a comparable amount by raising EV usage.

Figure 5. Schematic of how greening and green bond supply may spread over time

Source: HSBC

Already the green bond market is channelling finance from Europe and the US to the

developing world. To check green bond fund flows, we examined ownership of USD53bn of

green bonds, about 12% of the total outstanding

. Figure 7 shows the difference between the

share of total issuance and share of total holdings. A positive number indicates a region holds

more bonds than it issued. North America is a large net buyer: it accounts for 41% of holdings

and 26% of issuance. Asia and Latin America are net issuers.

______________________________________

In a ‘green on both sides’ ABS, green loans are parcelled up and sold off in the form of an ABS security and the proceeds

of the ABS sale are themselves wholly used to fund green projects.

‘Hope for a Green New Year’, Paul Krugman, NY Times, 31 Dec 2018.

This data is taken from Bloomberg. Because European and US asset managers have quite high holding disclosure

requirements, our data may exaggerate European and US holdings numbers versus reality.

Europe China India

Power generation Power generation Power generation

Transport Transport Transport

Buildings Building Building

Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture

Technology Technology Technology

Hard to abate sectors Hard to abate sectors Hard to abate sectors

The green bond market is

funding EM green capex

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