Renewable Energy Market Update 2022 Highlights
Outlook for 2022 and 2023
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Highlights
The current global energy crisis has added new urgency to accelerate clean
energy transitions and, once again, highlighted the key role of renewable energy.
For renewable electricity, pre-crisis policies lead to faster growth in our updated
forecast. Notably, wind and solar PV have the potential to reduce the European
Union’s power sector dependence on Russian Federation (hereafter, “Russia”)
natural gas by 2023.
At the same time, it is too early to assess the potential impact on our 2022 and
2023 forecast of newly announced targets following the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, in the absence of rapid policy implementation.
Annual renewable capacity additions broke a new record in 2021, increasing 6%
to almost 295 GW, despite the continuation of pandemic-driven supply chain
challenges, construction delays and record-level commodity prices for raw
materials.
Solar PV and wind costs are expected to remain higher in 2022 and 2023 than
pre-pandemic levels due to elevated commodity and freight prices. However, their
competitiveness actually improves, due to much sharper increases in natural gas
and coal prices.
Renewable capacity is expected to further increase over 8% in 2022, reaching
almost 320 GW. However, unless new policies are implemented rapidly, growth
remains stable in 2023 because solar PV expansion cannot fully compensate for
lower hydropower and steady year-on-year wind additions.
Globally, forecast additions for 2022 and 2023 have been revised upwards by 8%
from December last year, thanks to strong policy support in the People’s Republic
of China (hereafter, “China”), the European Union and Latin America, and despite
downward forecast revisions in the United States.
Biofuel demand recovered in 2021 from Covid-19 lows, to near 2019 levels, and
we expect growth to expand year-on-year by 5% in 2022 and by 3% in 2023. On
the other hand, increasing feedstock prices and policy reaction from multiple
countries slows growth in the short term, leading to a 20% downward revision of
our previous biofuel demand growth forecast. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also
putting upward pressure on an already high-price environment for biofuel
feedstocks, in particular vegetable oils.
While looming market uncertainties increase challenges, the new focus on energy
security – especially in the European Union – is also triggering an unprecedented
policy momentum towards accelerating energy efficiency and renewables.
Ultimately, the forecast of renewable markets for 2023 and beyond will depend on
whether new and stronger policies will be introduced and implemented in the next
six months.
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