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欧洲的新时代(EN).pdf
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A New Era
for Europe
How the European Union Can Make
the Most of its Pandemic Recovery,
Pursue Sustainable Growth,
and Promote Global Stability
HIGH-LEVEL GROUP ON POST-COVID
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES
This report presents the work of the High-Level Group convened by Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni to
reflect on the post-COVID economic and social challenges.
DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and should not be attributed to the
European Commission or its services. The authors produced their contribution in a personal capacity and in full
independence.
LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible
for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication.
This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from
https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en and
https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/recovery-coronavirus/high-level-group_en.
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2022
PDF ISBN 978-92-76-47202-5 doi:10.2765/11297 KC-07-22-036-EN-N
© European Union, 2022
Non-commercial reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use or reproduction
of material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.
CREDIT
Cover photography: © iStock.com/Sergiy Bykhunenko
A New Era for Europe
How the European Union Can Make the Most
of its Pandemic Recovery, Pursue Sustainable Growth,
and Promote Global Stability
JEL Classification:
A3, E0, F0, F5, J0.
Keywords:
COVID-19 pandemic, digital transition, European Union, inequality, social fairness,
geopolitics, green transition, institutions, trust.
4
HIGH-LEVEL GROUP ON POST-COVID ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES
The European Commission has responded decisively to the economic and social impact of the COVID-19
pandemic, putting in place major new policy instruments, most notably NextGenerationEU. Nevertheless,
the medium- to longer-term impact of the pandemic on both the economy and society remains to be seen.
In this context, at the beginning of 2021 Commissioner Gentiloni convened a High-Level Group to reflect
on the main economic and social challenges the European economy will face in the post-COVID
environment.
Members
Car
lo Carraro
President Emeritus and
Professor of Environmental
Economics at Ca’ Foscari
University of Venice
M
elinda Mills
Nuffield Professor of
Sociology and Director,
Leverhulme Centre for
Demographic Science,
University of Oxford
Be
noît Cœuré
President of the Autorité
de la concurrence
H
élène Rey
Lord Raj Bagri Professor
of Economics, London
Business School
Otilia Dhand
Managing Director, Teneo
André Sapir
Professor,
Institut d'Études
européennes, Université
Libre de Bruxelles
Ba
rry Eichengreen
,
George C. Pardee and
Helen N. Pardee
Distinguished Professor of
Economics and Political
Science, University of
California, Berkeley
D
aniela Schwarzer
Executive Director for
Europe and Eurasia of the
Open Society Foundations
We would like to thank Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni for setting up this Group to investigate
the economic and social implications of the post-COVID economy: we have had his full support and
have worked with complete independence.
We would like to thank István P. Székely for supporting our work, Rebecca Christie for editing our co-
authored chapter, and Bruno Castanheira for assisting the Group.
Finally, we would like to thank Sandra Gallina and her colleagues at Directorate-General for Health
and Food Safety, Mauro Raffaele Petriccione and his colleag
ues at Directorate-General for Climate
Action, Gerassimos Thomas and his colleagues from Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs
Union, and Miguel Gil Tertre at Directorate-General for Energy for for their valuable input and insight
into current and future policy challenges in their respective areas.
5
CONTENTS
1. A NEW ERA FOR EUROPE HOW THE EUROPEAN UNION CAN MAKE THE MOST OF ITS
PANDEMIC RECOVERY, PURSUE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, AND PROMOTE GLOBAL
STABILITY ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
E
XECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ 9
Recommendations ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 13
1.1. THREE SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................... 14
1.1.1 Business as Usual ............................................................................................................................ 14
1.1.2 European New Era .......................................................................................................................... 15
1.1.3 Fragmentation and Conflict ............................................................................................................ 15
1.2. CRISIS RESPONSE ................................................................................................................................. 16
1.2.1 Legacies and lessons of the 2008-2013 financial crisis .................................................................. 16
1.2.2 The COVID response: a change of gear ......................................................................................... 17
1.3. CHALLENGES ........................................................................................................................................ 21
1.3.1 A New Growth Model: the Triple Transition .................................................................................. 21
The Green Transition ................................................................................................................................................. 21
The Digital Transition ................................................................................................................................................ 23
The Social Transition ................................................................................................................................................. 25
1.3.2 Rebuilding Trust .............................................................................................................................. 27
Young Generations .................................................................................................................................................... 27
Polarisation and Political Systems ............................................................................................................................. 28
Institutional Quality and Public Revenues ................................................................................................................. 30
1.3.3 Global politics and economic trends ............................................................................................... 31
Global risks ................................................................................................................................................................ 32
Dealing with three major powers ............................................................................................................................... 32
EU Strengths and Weaknesses ................................................................................................................................... 34
1.4. RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 35
1.4.1 Enabling the triple transition .......................................................................................................... 37
1.4.2 Fair and effective taxation .............................................................................................................. 40
1.4.3 Moving towards a Health Union ..................................................................................................... 42
1.4.4 Strengthening Europe’s role in the world ....................................................................................... 44
1.4.5 Making the Governance of the Union fit for purpose ...................................................................... 46
2.
THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY POST-COVID: THE GOOD, THE
BAD AND THE UGLY
BY ANDRÉ SAPIR .......................................................................................................... 48
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................... 48
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 51
2.1. DISPARITIES WITHIN EU COUNTRIES .................................................................................................... 52
2.2. DIVERGENCES BETWEEN EU COUNTRIES .............................................................................................. 59
2.3. CONVERGENCES AND DIVERGENCES BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD ....................... 67
CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................................... 77
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