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CSIS-2024年人工智能政策预测(英).pdf
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i
January 2024
2024
AI POLICY
FORECAST
Gregory C. Allen
Georgia Adamson
A Report of the Wadhwani Center
for AI and Advanced Technologies
wadhwani center for ai
and advanced technologies
v
iv
The Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprot policy research orga-
nization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to
address the world’s greatest challenges.
Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS
Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. sen-
ator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by
John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief
executive ocer since 2000.
CSIS’s purpose is to dene the future of national secu-
rity. We are guided by a distinct set of values—nonpar-
tisanship, independent thought, innovative thinking,
cross-disciplinary scholarship, integrity and pro-
fessionalism, and talent development. CSIS’s values
work in concert toward the goal of making real-world
impact.
CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise, judgment,
and robust networks to their research, analysis, and
recommendations. We organize conferences, pub-
lish, lecture, and make media appearances that aim
to increase the knowledge, awareness, and salience
of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the
interested public.
CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the
decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking
of key inuencers. We work toward a vision of a safer
and more prosperous world.
CSIS does not take specic policy positions; accord-
ingly, all views expressed herein should be understood
to be solely those of the author(s).
© 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International
Studies. All rights reserved.
The Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technolo-
gies is an initiative within CSIS that produces research
on technology governance, regulation, national
security, and geopolitics—with a particular focus on
AI. The center investigates central topics including
export controls, semiconductor supply chains, and
the impacts of emerging technologies on national
security and global economic policymaking. Our anal-
yses aim to inform policy solutions that address rap-
idly evolving technology, foster global collaboration
on AI and technology, and encourage technological
innovation. The center is supported by the Wadhwani
Foundation, a nonprot dedicated to accelerating eco-
nomic development.
The Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technolo-
gies would like to thank the Wadhwani Foundation for
making this report possible.
ABOUT
CSIS THE WADHWANI CENTER FOR AI
AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES
CONTENTS
Letter from the Director 1
Year in Review 2
A Timeline of Major Developments in AI in 2023
Top Takeaways 7
The Wadhwani Center’s Key Takeaways from Developments in AI Last Year
Mapping AI Events 16
A Global Perspective on Key AI Summits and Events
The Year Ahead 18
Ten Developments to Monitor in 2024
Glossary 21
Key Denitions for 2024
About the Authors 25
Endnotes 26
01
02
03
04
05
06
vi
1
LETTER FROM THE DIRECTOR
2023 marked the founding year of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced
Technologies. We established this organization at CSIS to provide impactful
research and analysis that can keep pace with the rapidly changing technology
and policy landscape. While this is always a struggle, I am immensely proud of
the strides we have made.
In just the eight months that the Wadhwani Center has been active, we proudly
published 10 comprehensive reports, oering insights and recommendations that
have resonated with policymakers and industry leaders alike. Our experts testied
before Congress on three occasions and had the privilege of brieng our research
ndings to senior international and U.S. government policymakers, including cab-
inet-level ocials, on dozens of occasions.
Looking ahead, we remain committed to advancing the discourse on AI and tech-
nology. Our goals for 2024 are ambitious, focusing on growing our team of talented
sta, deepening our research, expanding our outreach, convening timely events,
and continuing to inform policy at both national and international levels.
I would like to extend a special thank you to Dr. Romesh Wadhwani and the
Wadhwani Foundation for their unwavering and generous support. Their com-
mitment to independent and impactful policy scholarship gave us this opportu-
nity. I am deeply grateful to all our donors, partners, and sta who have worked
so hard to get us o to such a strong start.
Thank you for being part of our story. I am condent that this year will bring even
more exciting opportunities.
Sincerely,
Gregory C. Allen
Director, Wadhwani Center for AI and
Advanced Technologies
2
3
4
16
30
22
28
11
APR
21
JUN
1
19
30
MAY
China’s Cyberspace Administra-
tion implements a new law to
manage deepfakes, including by
enforcing watermarks on AI-gen-
erated content.
1
Microsoft pledges a rumored
$10 billion multiyear investment
in OpenAI, claiming the future
impact of AI technology will be
equal to the PC or the internet.
2
The U.S. Department of Defense
updates DOD Directive 3000.09,
“Autonomy In Weapons Systems,”
changing the original 2012 direc-
tive to reflect new technology
capabilities in autonomous sys-
tems and AI.
3
The U.S. National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST)
releases the NIST AI Risk Manage-
ment Framework, a set of guide-
lines for AI development, use,
and evaluation aimed to enhance
transparency and security of AI in
businesses and organizations.
4
The United States and the Euro-
pean Union announce an agree-
ment to accelerate joint AI
research for solving global chal-
lenges in climate forecasting,
agriculture, healthcare, critical
infrastructure, and more.
5
Bloomberg reports that the
Netherlands and Japan will join
U.S. eorts to restrict exports of
semiconductor manufacturing
equipment to China.
6
The White House launches the
U.S.-India Initiative on Criti-
cal and Emerging Technologies
(iCET), a partnership with India to
advance technology and defense
research and innovation and to
ensure semiconductor supply
chain resiliency.
7
win mcnamee/getty images
alex wong/getty images
jaap arriens/nurphoto via getty images
OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT,
becomes the fastest-growing
application in history, with 100
million users in January.
8
The Department of Defense rst
announces its “Political Decla-
ration on Responsible Military
Use of Articial Intelligence and
Autonomy” at the Responsible AI
in the Military Domain Summit in
The Hague, Netherlands, the rst
summit of its kind.
9
Meta’s large language model
(LLM) “LLaMA” is announced for
limited release.
10
The Netherlands announces
plans to join the United States to
restrict semiconductor technol-
ogy to China.
11
OpenAI reveals its latest large
multimodal model ChatGPT-4,
which greatly outperforms GPT-3
and other available models in sev-
eral areas.
12
Nvidia reports it has modied one
of its top semiconductor chips,
the H100, for export to China
as H800 following updated U.S.
export controls last year.
13
An open letter calling for pause
to all frontier AI developments
for six months due to potential
catastrophic risk to society is
published. Signatories include
prominent CEOs and academics.
14
Japan announces it will join the
United States and the Nether-
lands in restricting exports of
semiconductor manufacturing
equipment overseas.
15
4
16
30
22
28
11
APR
21
JUN
1
19
30
MAY
China’s Cyberspace Adminis-
tration reveals draft steps to
manage generative AI content,
including bringing content in
line with China’s core values.
16
The G7 concludes Digital and Tech
Ministers’ Meeting (April 29–30)
in Takasaki, Japan, declaring
member states’ commitment
to an internationally coopera-
tive, adaptable, and risk-based
approach to AI governance.
17
Hollywood writers begin
months-long strikes over issues
including AI’s role in the cre-
ative industry.
18
CEOs of top AI developers
OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft,
and Alphabet meet with Pres-
ident Biden to discuss respon-
sible AI innovation, including
companies’ responsibility to
make products safe.
19
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and
IBM vice president Christina
Montgomery testify before Con-
gress on the risks of rapid AI
development following the quick
rise of ChatGPT.
20
G7 leaders gathered in Hiroshima
discuss inclusive governance for
AI at the 2023 summit.
21
The nonprot Center for AI Safety
publishes a one-sentence state-
ment arguing that mitigating
extinction from AI should be a
“global priority,” which is signed
by top AI CEOs and developers,
academics, and other civil soci-
ety gures.
22
Nvidia briey joins tech giants in
trillion-dollar market valuation,
with shares up over 200 percent
since late 2022.
23
Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer announces SAFE Inno-
vation Framework for AI Policy
at CSIS.
24
The Department of Commerce
announces new public working
group to implement and build
upon NIST’s AI Risk Management
Framework created in January.
25
OpenAI sued by authors for
copyright infringement after
training ChatGPT on their works
without proper licensing, rais-
ing wider copyright concerns
around AI systems.
26
mario tama/getty images
csis
stephen rousseau/getty images
2
3
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