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中国气候转型展望2023(英)-CREA.pdf
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中国气候转型展望2023(英)-CREA
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2
China's Climate Transition: Outlook 2023
27 November 2023
Authors
Lauri Myllyvirta, Qi Qin, Chengcheng Qiu, Xinyi Shen
This report was published by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) with the
support of the Heinrich Böll Foundationʼs (Heinrich-Böll-Stiung) global head office in Berlin,
Germany.
Contributors
Xunpeng Shi, Muyi Yang, Shurui Wang
Editor
Kathryn Miller, Hannah Ekberg
Translator
Xiaoying You
Designer
Wendi Wu
Photo by Li Yang on Unsplash
Project coordinator
Ella Soesanto, Xinyi Shen
Acknowledgements
CREA gratefully acknowledges the support, feedback, and insight received from Dr. Paul
Kohlenberg and Jörg Haas. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and should
not be attributed to any of the aforementioned.
i
About CREA
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) is an independent research organisation
focused on revealing the trends, causes, and health impacts, as well as the solutions, to air
pollution. CREA uses scientific data, research and evidence to support the efforts of governments,
companies and campaigning organisations worldwide in their efforts to move towards clean
energy and clean air. We believe that effective research and communication are the key to
successful policies, investment decisions and advocacy efforts. CREA was founded in 2019 in
Helsinki, Finland and has staff in several European and Asian countries.
About the Heinrich Böll Foundation
The Heinrich Böll Foundation (Heinrich-Böll-Stiung) is a public funded institute in Germany for
green visions and projects with an international network encompassing partner projects in
approximately 60 countries. The Foundation's primary task is political awareness building in
Germany and abroad to promote democratic will, socio-political commitment and international
understanding. It is guided by the basic political values of ecology, democracy, solidarity, and
nonviolence. The Foundation currently has offices in more than 30 countries around the world.
Disclaimer
This publication is produced by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (hereinaer referred to as ʻCREAʼ) headquartered in
Finland, in accordance with the local laws and regulations. CREA is a global research organisation focused on promoting clean energy
and studying solutions to air pollution.
CREA is politically independent. The designations employed and the presentation of the material on maps contained in this report do
not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities,
or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The content and expression of views and opinions expressed in this publication are based on those of the authors of the independent
scientific analysis and study during the time of research, and they do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position, or represent
the views or opinions, of CREA, or its members and/or funders.
CREA does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this publication. This publication is
ONLY for the purposes of information sharing, environmental protection and public interests. Therefore, this publication should not be
used as the reference of any investment or other decision-making process. CREA assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or
omissions in the content of this publication.
This report is originally written in English and translated into Chinese subsequently. In case of a discrepancy, the English version
prevails.
ii
Contents
Executive summary 1
1 Introduction 4
2 Understanding Chinaʼs greenhouse gas emissions 8
2.1 The meteoric rise of emissions 8
2.2 Chinaʼs emissions in an international context 11
3 Pathways to carbon neutrality for China and the world 15
3.1 Overview 15
3.2 Global pathways 17
3.2.1 Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) 17
3.2.2 Climate Action Tracker (CAT) 19
3.2.3 International Energy Agency (IEA) 19
3.3 Pathways for China 20
3.3.1 Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD) 23
3.3.2 School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University (SENR-RMU) 23
3.3.3 Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Academy of Environmental Planning
(CAEP-IAE) and Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI) 24
3.3.4 North China Electric Power University (NCEPU) and Peking University (PKU) 25
3.3.5 Energy Foundation China (EFC) and Center for Global Sustainability at the University
of Maryland (CGS-UMD) 25
4 Measuring and benchmarking Chinaʼs progress 27
4.1 Total CO2 emissions 27
4.1.1 Trends compared to benchmarks 29
4.1.2 Policies in place 29
4.1.3 Data disclosure 35
4.2 Non-CO2 greenhouse gases 36
4.2.1 Policies in place 36
4.2.2 Data disclosure 38
4.3 Total energy supply and demand 39
4.3.1 Trends compared to benchmarks 39
4.3.2 Policies in place: Action for green and low-carbon energy transition 45
4.3.3 Data disclosure 49
4.4 Electricity generation and capacity 50
4.4.1 Trends compared to benchmarks 51
4.4.2 Focus on: Chinaʼs Coal Power Surge 55
4.4.3 Policies in place 57
4.4.4 Data disclosure 67
4.5 Industry 68
4.5.1 Trends compared to benchmarks 69
4.5.2 Policies in place: Peaking carbon dioxide emissions in industry 74
4.5.3 Focus: Iron and steel 80
4.5.4 Data disclosure 84
4.6 Buildings 85
4.6.1 Trends compared to benchmarks 86
4.6.2 Policies in place: Peaking carbon dioxide emissions in the residential sector 88
4.6.3 Data disclosure 90
4.7 Transport 90
4.7.1 Trends compared to benchmarks 92
4.7.2 Policies in place: Actions for promoting green and low-carbon transportation 95
4.7.3 Data disclosure 98
4.8 Provincial actions 98
4.8.1 Policies in place: Chinaʼs climate transition requires collective efforts on provincial
level 98
4.8.2 Recent adjustments to targets 104
5 Expert survey and interviews 106
5.1 Total emission of carbon dioxide 108
5.2 Consumption of primary energy and coal 109
5.3 The power sector 112
5.4 The industrial sectors 113
5.5 The transportation sector 115
5.6 New dynamics 116
6 Conclusions 119
Appendix: Historical data sources 122
Abbreviations 124
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