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数据回归-奇虎360借壳上市后价值回归案例分析.pdf
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数据回归-奇虎360借壳上市后价值回归案例分析.pdf
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奇虎 360 借壳上市后价值回归案例分析
1
摘 要
2018 年,国内经济形势总体呈现复苏态势,资本市场相关制度建设不断完
善。资管新规和行业细则正式出台,CDR 试点工作稳步推进,科创板与注册制
试点胜利在望,资本市场对外开放水平进一步提升。与此同时,受贸易摩擦和金
融环境变化的影响,我国经济金融市场波动幅度有所加大,经济下行风险有所增
加,具体表现在股票市场指数下跌,成交量下降,IPO 过会率创历年新低,A 股
上市公司市值缩水严重等方面。由于上市公司市值的巨大波动,有关上市公司的
市值管理问题再次成为社会讨论的热点问题。
奇虎 360 作为中概股(股票代码:QIHU),由于其在美股市场价值被严重低
估,从美股退市后于 2018 年 2 月在 A 股借壳江南嘉捷上市(股票代码:601360)。
本文基于奇虎 360 借壳上市案例,第一部分回顾了国内外有关借壳上市和企业价
值评估理论研究,阐述了企业价值评估理论和市值管理的内涵,分析了现代较为
流行的估值方法。第二部分介绍了奇虎 360 借壳交易双方经营状况,从不同角度
分析了借壳上市的动因,接着详细解读了奇虎 360 借壳上市的流程,分析了资产
置换和股份发行的具体操作步骤。在采用收益法对企业价值进行评估后,发现了
企业上市后市值与真实价值存在一定差距。虽然 360 借壳上市后,企业市值较之
前有了很大提升,但其市值短期内的巨额缩水也反映出一些问题。基于 360 企业
上市后的绩效表现,从内部和外部两个方面对企业市值缩水的原因进行了分析,
发现外部原因主要是 2018 年 A 股市场总体表现不佳,上市公司融资环境严峻;
内部原因首先是国内互联网行业竞争激烈,360 公司的业务转型遭遇瓶颈期,加
上本身缺乏核心技术,导致盈利能力和发展能力在同行业大幅度下降。因此,相
对借壳上市初期的高估值,企业回归真实价值时间较长。
本文认为,企业在通过借壳上市提升企业市值过程中,应当有清晰的主营业
务发展方向,上市是提高企业市值的途径之一,但只能在短期内提高公司市值,
想要使企业市值得到长期稳定的提升,应着眼于提高企业的核心竞争力,有效整
合外部资源,才能使企业得到健康、良性的发展,否则难以提高投资者的投资信
心,改变股价的持续下跌的趋势。监管部门应完善资产重组相关信息的披露要求,
引导资本市场进行合理定价,避免并购重组对股价造成较大冲击。同时,对于投
资者来说,应理性看待企业市值,着重关注企业内在价值。当企业市值超出其真
实价值时,应及时关注资金安全,避免投资损失。
关键词:借壳上市;企业价值;价值评估;价值回归
万方数据
奇虎 360 借壳上市后价值回归案例分析
I
ABSTRACT
In 2018, the domestic economic situation showed a general recovery trend, and
the construction of relevant systems in the capital market continued to improve. The
new regulations and industry rules were officially promulgated, and the CDR pilot
work was steadily advanced. the pilot of the science and technology board and the
registration system were in sight, and the level of opening up of the capital market
was further enhanced. At the same time, affected by trade frictions and changes in the
financial environment, Chinese economic and financial market volatility has increased,
and economic downside risks have increased. This is reflected in the decline in the
stock market index, the decline in trading volume, The meeting rate of IPO has
reached a new low in the past year, and the market value of A-share listed companies
has shrunk. Due to the huge fluctuations in the market value of listed companies, the
issue of market value management of listed companies has once again become a hot
issue in social discussion.
Qihoo 360 as a stock index (stock code: QIHU), due to its value in the US stock
market was seriously undervalued, After delisting from the US stock market, in
February 2018 back listed JiangnanJiajie in the A-shares(stock code: 601360). Based
on the case of Qihoo 360 backdoor listing, the first part reviews the domestic and
foreign research on the backdoor listing and enterprise value evaluation theory,
expounds the connotation of enterprise value assessment theory and market value
management, and analyzes the modern popular valuation methods. The second part
introduces the operation status of Qihoo 360 backdoor trading, analyzes the
motivation of backdoor listing from different angles, and then explains the process of
Qihoo 360 backdoor listing in detail, and analyzes the specific operation steps of asset
replacement and stock issuance. After using the income method to evaluate the value
of the company, it is found that there is a certain gap between the market value and
the real value of the company after listing. Although 360's backdoor listing, the
market value of the company has been greatly improved, but the huge shrinkage in the
short-term market value also reflects some problems. Based on the performance of
360 companies after listing, the reasons for the shrinking of the market value of the
company were analyzed from both internal and external aspects. The external reasons
were mainly due to the poor performance of the A-share market in 2018, and the
financing environment of listed companies was severe. The competition in the
domestic Internet industry is fierce. The 360 company's business transformation has
encountered a bottleneck period, and its lack of core technology has led to a
significant decline in profitability and development capability in the same industry.
Therefore, compared with the high valuation at the initial stage of the backdoor listing,
万方数据
ABSTRACT
II
it takes a long time for the company to return to the real value.
This paper believes that in the process of increasing the market value of
enterprises through the backdoor listing, enterprises should have a clear direction of
the main business development. The listing can only improve the market value of the
company in the short term. If you want to improve the market value of the company
in a long-term, you should focus on improving the company’s core competitiveness,
and integrate external resources effectively, so that enterprises can achieve healthy
and benign development. The regulatory authorities shall improve the disclosure
requirements of the relevant documents for asset restructuring and guide the capital
market to make reasonable pricing. At the same time, for investors, we should
rationally look at the market value of enterprises and focus on the intrinsic value of
enterprises. When the market value of a company exceeds its true value, it should pay
attention to the safety of funds and avoid investment losses.
KEYWORDS: backdoor listing; corporate value; value assessment; value
regression
万方数据
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