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VTT vision paper 2022 EN.pdf
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VTT vision paper 2022 EN.pdf
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The tipping point
What kind of
future do we
want?
80 years
of curiosity
& beyond
According to experts, we are living critical
times. Our living environment is close to reach-
ing potential tipping points after which there
is no return to the way things were before. To
be able to avoid such developments, both in
terms of biodiversity loss and climate change,
we must look further into the future. Therefore,
in this publication, we are envisioning the world
in 80 years' time and asking what we should
do already today? What we need is a radical
change.
If we look back in time the same number of
years, we go back to the wartime of the 1940s,
to our grandparents and their parents. VTT
was also established back then, 80 years ago,
to support the wartime Finland and the post-
war rebuilding shimmering in our hopes. Over
the years, the world has changed enormously,
and in this development, the role played by
advances in technology and increase in the
amount of knowledge has been signicant. As,
today, the pace of change can be described as
exponential, it is impossible to foresee as far
ahead. We took up the challenge anyway and
discussed with some top experts within their
elds what life would look like 80 years from
now from the Finnish perspective. Which solu-
tions should we introduce right now to make
the desired future happen?
The European Commission has set as its target
to reach a carbon neutral economy by 2050.
According to our estimate, about a half of the
technologies needed for reaching the goal
already exist, and the other half need to be
invented. Luckily, we have already started to
understand how necessary the changes are. We
have a lot to do, but, at the same time, we have
hope. Finland has the competence and oppor-
tunities needed to become a forerunner.
In this vision for VTT's anniversary year, we are
painting a radically rosy picture of the future.
The purpose of the vision is to spark new ideas
and to accelerate turning wishes into actions.
We invite you to join us in making this rosy pic-
ture of the future a reality.
In Espoo, 27 September 2022
Maaria Nuutinen, Tiina Apilo,
So Kurki and Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen
VTT's Foresight Researchers
The best way to create
the kind of future you
desire is to live it in
this moment.”
━ Mikko Dufva
Leading foresight specialist
Sitra
“
Listen to VTT's new
Keikahduspiste
podcast on Spotify
(Discussion in Finnish)
For as long as 80 years, VTT has been play-
ing a signicant role in catalysing renewal
and ensuring the functioning of society with
the help of innovation. We hope this will still
be true 80 years from now, in 2102. But what
will life in Finland, as part of the global world,
look like at that point? In 80 years, tech-
nological development will go forward and
change our society in unanticipated ways.
As people, we will still need the same things
as our ancestors in the distant past: food,
warmth, security and other people.
The starting point for this vision is that in
80 years’ time our everyday life is meaning-
ful and safe, we live in a clean and diverse
environment, and we can enjoy life without
endangering our health or the future of the
planet or mankind. In today's world, riddled
with crises, this vision may seem like an
impossible dream. We want to underscore,
however, that, to a large extent, the solutions
already exist – and when there is will, the
remaining solutions can be developed.
The next transition that will make us produce
technologies for mitigating climate change
is our relationship with nature coming to a
crisis. We are already witnessing how the
climate is changing radically. The systemic
change has begun, changing the climate all
around the world. According to the IPCC
climate report, the present steps are not suf-
cient to limit the global warming to 1.5 °C.
Eective emission reductions will already be
needed during the next decade.
As far as the future is concerned, this means
that, in 2102, we will be living in a world with
a dierent climate. In the past, threat sce-
narios have generated action and policies
aimed at change. Now, the intensication of
extreme weather conditions may push soci-
eties to making faster reforms. As a result, in
2102, we will have a better understanding of
nature as a system. We can make quick turns
at a societal level and simply change the way
we do things. We believe that, over the com-
ing decades, we have succeeded in adjusting
ourselves to the changed climate system.
80 years may seem like a long time, but
many of today's children and young peo-
ple will still be alive then. In other words,
No single futuristic
invention is as
important as today’s
political decisions
and investments that
will continue to aect
future generations in
80 years’ time.”
━ Shadia Rask
Research Manager, Finnish Institute for
Health and Welfare (THL)
“
Introduction
the foundations of health in 80 years’ time
are laid by the decisions and actions we
take today, such as supporting children and
young people to lead a healthy life. This way
they can raise a healthy, next generation and
will also remain healthy when they grow old.
Food will maintain its role as a culturally
important element of a good life in the future,
but the factors related to producing food will
change fundamentally over the next 80 years.
A better understanding of the impact of
food on well-being and health, new ways of
producing food and a personied approach
to food consumption will bring new tastes
on our plates and constitute a foundation for
healthy ways of living.
In 2102, we will be leading meaningful lives;
we will spend time with our loved ones and
use our time on matters that are important to
us and the community around us. Work has
not disappeared from our daily life, but the
ways and forms of working have changed.
In VTT's anniversary year, our security is
being challenged from many directions. We
are weighed down by the very tense geo-
political and security political situation, the
worrying climate and environmental issues,
the uctuating global economy and the
dicult-to-predict threats brought about by
technological development. In our vision, digi-
talization plays a key role in ensuring security.
To achieve this radically rosy future described
above, what we need over the next 80 years
is cooperation in solving the challenges, and
research and development. We hope that our
vision will inspire all of you to take concerted
action towards the desired future.
As background
for the vision, we
interviewed several
Finnish experts, to
whom we want to
extend our warm
thanks.
A vision creates momentum
for change. A good vision
appeals not only to reason
but also to emotions, and it
challenges the assumptions
of the future we have
today. A vision reaches a
little further from what we
consider possible under
present circumstances.”
━ Pauli Komonen
Senior Scientist, Strategic Foresight
VTT
“
In 2102, we know how to deal with extreme weather phenom-
ena. But will people stop destroying nature? In 80 years’ time,
people’s relationship with nature will be characterised by eco-
system thinking, the idea of natural technology and the central
role of nature being used as a living surface material in the built
environment. In fact, all human activities are coming closer to
how nature works.
Nature also serves as inspiration for developing technologies.
Over the past 80 years, one of the key enablers of learning
THEME 1: ENVIRONMENT
Zero waste,
low-emission
world
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