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房地产投资对国民经济的影响.doc
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房地产投资对国民经济的影响.doc
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摘要
中国经济通过 30 多年的高速增长,房地产行业差不多进
展成为中国各个地点的经济支柱产业,成为推动经济增长的
一个不可忽视的力量。房地产的进展也为经济的增长做出了
不可磨灭的贡献。然而,持续增长的房地产业随着价格不断
地上升,差不多不单单是阻碍了中国正常的经济进展,而且
还成了一个民生问题,衍生出了比较严峻的社会问题。使得
中央的调控政策不得不多次对其进行调整。07 年美国次贷危
机爆发以来,更是波及了整个世界的经济,导致长期经济高
速进展的中国不得不面临如何样保持经济增长的问题。四万
亿的投资,再次把房地产行业作为了引领中国经济复苏的领
头雁。
房地产在中国经济和社会中起着举足轻重的作用,一方
面以住宅为主的房地产业,在拉动经济的增长,扩大了人民
的就业面增加了就业岗位;另一方面,房地产的高速持续进
展也得益于中国经济的高速进展,能够提高农民的可支配收
入以及加快中国都市化的进程。房地产作为支柱产业,涉及
到了国家上百种行业,产业链长,关联度大,房地产行业的
健康与否直接阻碍了上下游众多产业的进展,尤其是生活消
费品的进展。本文选取近年来的经济和房地产数据以及相关
行业的数据,使用计量经济学的理论与方法对我国房地产行
业对国民经济以及相关的行业的阻碍进行了探究,通过分析
得出了一些结论,为此还提出了一些相关的意见和建议。
关键字:房地产投资; GDP;格兰杰因果检验 ;VAR 模型;
Abstract
After 30 years rapid growth of the Chinese
economy, the real estate industry has developed
into the economic pillar industries in different
places in China, known as a force to be reckoned in
promoting economic growth. Real estate development
has made an indelible contribution to economic
growth. However, the growth in real estate prices
with the constantly rising, has not only affect
China's normal economic development, but also
became a livelihood issues, derived from the more
serious social problems.Central control policies
have had to repeatedly adjust them. Since the U.S.
subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, spread to the
entire world economy, leading to long-term rapid
economic development of China had to face the
problem of how to maintain economic growth. Four
trillion investment, again the real estate industry
as the leading pack to lead China's economic
recovery.
Real estate plays an important role in China's
economy and society, on the one hand, predominantly
residential real estate sector in stimulating
economic growth, expanded employment opportunities
for people's jobs; the other hand, real estate,
high-speedsustained development also benefited from
China's rapid economic development, farmers can
increase in disposable income of China's
urbanization process.Real estate as a pillar
industry, involving hundreds of national industry,
the industrial chain, associate degree, the health
of the real estate industry will directly affect
the upstream and downstream of many industries,
especially the development of consumer goods. This
paper selects the recent economic and real estate
data and relevant industry data, the use of
econometric theory and methods of the real estate
industry in China to explore the impact of the
national economy as well as related industries,
some conclusions by analyzing.To this end, also
made a number of related comments and suggestions
Key words: real estate development investment;
GDP ;Granger causality test Var model
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