附录四 Leslie 人口预测模型程序
b=[0,0,0,0.04359225,0.260676,0.3524171,0.2149036,0.0882258,0.02544611,
0.01473916,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]; %输入 2015 年标准化生育率的预测值,记为
向量 b
k=110; %输入 2016 年-2066 年出生人口性别比的预测值
n=[668449,638535,598685,626249,809143,1007144,794090,769056,932187,97
6048,818405,606808,604925,425036,276332,195597,111726,44847,11838,194
7,0]; %输入 2015 年年龄别女性人口数,记为向量 n
m=[1243566,1174724,1103520,1165548,1554837,1992252,1573049,1507593,18
24946,1921117,1615839,1193350,1211435,850443,563097,411240,253260,111
758,33773,6894,0]; %输入 2015 年年龄别男性人口数,记为向量 m
mO=m';
nO=n';
B=b*1.8; %计算现行人口政策下年龄别生育率,记为向量 B
dl=[1.12,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.34,0.45,0.71,1.09,1.67,2.72,4.04,7.02,1
2.53,24.41,77.88,115.22,171.93,182.5,464.1745]; %输入女性年龄别死亡率,
记为向量 dl
d2=[1.19,0.29,0.34,0.41,0.63,0.78,0.94,1.43,2.07,3.12,4.94,7.16,12.24,
20.48,37.66,60.33,98.88,142.15,184.87,127.62]; %输入男性年龄别死亡率,
记为向量 d2
s1=1:20;
s2=1:20;
for i=1:20
s1(i)=(1000-dl(i))/1000 ; %计算女性年龄别存活率
s2(i)=(1000-d2(i))/1000 ; %计算男性年龄别存活率
end
M1=eye(20); %生成 20 维单位矩阵 Ml
for i=1:20
M1(i,:)=M1(i,:)*s1(1,i);
end
%通过循环语句将女性年龄别存活率赋值到 Ml 矩阵对角线元素
h=zeros(21,1);%生成零矩阵 h
N1=[B;M1];
Ll=[N1,h];
i=1;
X(:,i)=Ll*nO;
X(1,i)=X(1,i)*100/[100+k];
for i=2:51
X(:,i)=Ll*X(:,i-1);
X(1,i)= X(1,i)*(100/[100+k]);
end
%计算未来 50 年女性预测人口数,记为矩阵 X
M2=eye(20);
for i=1:20
