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Copyright
by
David Merrill Pardoe
2011
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/13089221/bg2.jpg)
The Dissertation Committee for David Merrill Pardoe
certifies that this is the approved version of t he following dissertation:
Adaptive Trading Agent Strategies Using Market
Experience
Committee:
Peter Stone, Supervisor
Risto Miikkulainen
Raymond Mooney
Maytal Saa r -Tsechansky
Michael Wellman
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/13089221/bg3.jpg)
Adaptive Trading Agent Strategies Using Market
Experience
by
David Merrill Pardoe, B.S.
DISSERTATION
Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of
The University of Texas at Austin
in Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements
for the Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN
May 20 11
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/13089221/bg4.jpg)
Adaptive Trading Agent Strategies Using Market
Experience
Publication No.
David Merrill Pardoe, Ph.D.
The University of Texas at Austin, 2011
Supervisor: Peter Stone
Along with the growth of electronic commerce has come an interest in devel-
oping autonomous trading agents. Often, such agents must interact directly with
other market participants, and so the behavior of these par ticipants must be taken
into account when designing agent strategies. One common approach is to build a
model of the market, but this approach requires the use o f historical market dat a,
which may not always be available. This dissertation addresses such a case: t hat of
an agent entering a new market in which it has no previous experience. While the
agent could adapt by learning about the behavior of other market participants, it
would need to do so in an online fashion. The agent would not necessarily have to
learn from scratch, however. If the agent ha d previous experience in similar mar-
kets, it could use this experience to tailor its learning approach to its particular
situation.
This dissertation explores methods that a trading agent could use to take
advantage of previous market experience when adapting t o a new market. Two dis-
tinct learning settings are considered. In the first, an agent acting as an auctioneer
iv
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/13089221/bg5.jpg)
must adapt the parameters of an auction mechanism in response to bidder behav-
ior, and a r einforcement learning a pproach is used. The second setting concerns
agents that must adapt to the behavior of competitors in two scenarios from the
Tr ading Agent Competition: supply chain management and ad auctions. Here, the
agents use supervised learning to model the market. In both settings, methods o f
adaptation can be divided into four general categories: i) identifying the most sim-
ilar previously encountered market, ii) learning from the current market only, iii)
learning from the current market but using previous experience to tune the learning
algorithm, and iv) learning from both the current and previous markets. The first
contribution of this dissertation is the introduction and experimental validation of
a number of novel algorithms for market adaptation fitting these categories. The
second contribution is an exploration of the degree to which the quantity and na-
ture of market experience impact the relative performance of methods from these
categories.
v
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