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### 中国锂电池关键性金属的物质流分析 #### 关键知识点概述本文档《中国锂电池关键性金属的物质流分析》主要关注了在中国境内锂电池（LIBs）系统中锂和钴这两种关键金属的物质流分析（Material Flow Analysis, MFA）。通过对2000年至2018年间的数据进行动态底部向上的分析方法，该研究揭示了锂和钴在锂电池生产中的消耗、库存变化以及回收利用情况，并提出了促进锂电池产业可持续发展的建议。 #### 锂电池的关键金属：锂与钴 **锂**（Li）与**钴**（Co）是制造锂电池不可或缺的重要原材料。锂主要作为正极材料的组成部分，而钴则通常用于提高电池的稳定性和循环寿命。这两种金属在全球范围内都面临着资源稀缺的问题，特别是在需求量极大的中国市场。 #### 物质流分析（MFA） **物质流分析**是一种环境科学的研究方法，用于追踪物质或能量在一个系统内的流动过程，包括从原材料提取到最终产品的生命周期各个阶段。MFA能够帮助研究人员理解物质在经济和社会系统中的分配、积累和排放情况，对于评估环境影响和制定有效的资源管理策略至关重要。 #### 中国锂电池关键性金属的物质流分析要点 1. **消费增长趋势**：从2000年到2018年，中国的锂电池消费量显著增加，从1.4千吨（0.2 GWh）增长到了547.1千吨（102.9 GWh），其中锂和钴的累计消耗量分别为61.8千吨和247.6千吨。 2. **驱动因素**：2000年至2014年间，移动设备（如手机和笔记本电脑）的普及促进了锂和钴的消费增长；2015年后，电动汽车逐渐成为推动锂和钴需求增长的主要力量。 3. **在用库存**：随着锂电池使用的增加，在用锂和钴的库存量也相应增长，从2000年的0.03千吨和0.2千吨增加到了2018年的17.5千吨和31.0千吨。 4. **报废锂电池的处理**：报废锂电池（End-of-Life LIBs, EOLLIBs）的数量迅速增加，从每年0.1千吨增长到了110.7千吨。2018年，通过回收报废锂电池获得了0.4千吨锂和3.1千吨钴，分别占新生产锂电池所需锂和钴供应量的4.2%和12.8%。 5. **梯次利用**：此外，2018年有1.1千吨的报废磷酸铁锂电池被用于梯次利用，即在原应用领域之外的其他应用场景中继续发挥作用。 #### 可持续发展建议基于以上研究成果，作者提出以下几点建议： - **技术创新**：鼓励锂电池技术的创新，探索多种技术的结合，以提高电池性能并减少对关键金属的需求。 - **闭环管理**：加强锂电池的闭环管理，包括建立更加高效的回收体系，确保资源的有效循环利用。 - **梯次利用推广**：积极推广报废锂电池的梯次利用，充分利用其剩余价值，减少资源浪费。通过实施这些措施，可以有效促进中国锂电池产业的可持续发展，同时减轻对环境的压力。

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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Resources, Conservation & Recycling

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resconrec

Dynamic material ﬂow analysis of critical metals for lithium-ion battery

system in China from 2000–2018

Wenqiu Liu, Wei Liu

⁎

, Xinxin Li, Yeye Liu, Abiodun Emmanuel Ogunmoroti, Muyang Li,

Mengyan Bi, Zhaojie Cui

Shandong Key Laboratory of Water Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China

ARTICLE INFO

Keywords:

Material ﬂow analysis

Lithium-ion batteries

Lithium

Cobalt

China

ABSTRACT

Lithium and cobalt are key raw materials for the production of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). This study illustrates

the evolution of lithium and cobalt metabolism in the LIB system in China by applying dynamic bottom-up

material ﬂow analysis. From 2000 to 2018, the consumption of LIBs increased from 1.4 kt (0.2 GWh) to 547.1 kt

(102.9 GWh) in China. The cumulative consumption of lithium and cobalt for LIB production was 61.8 kt and

247.6 kt, respectively. From 2000 to 2014, the popularization of mobile phones and laptops promoted the

consumption of lithium and cobalt. After 2015, electric automobiles gradually became a major driving force for

the growth of lithium and cobalt consumption. The increasing use of LIBs resulted in the growth of in-use stocks

of lithium and cobalt from 0.03 kt and 0.2 kt in 2000 to 17.5 kt and 31.0 kt in 2018, respectively. Meanwhile,

end-of-life (EOL) LIBs were rapidly generated, with the increase from 0.1 kt/yr to 110.7 kt/yr. In 2018, 0.4 kt of

lithium and 3.1 kt of cobalt were recovered from these EOL LIBs in 2018, which provided 4.2% and 12.8% of the

lithium and cobalt supplies for new LIBs, respectively. Besides, 1.1 kt of EOL LFP batteries were used in echelon

utilization in 2018. Based on the results, some recommendations were proposed for the sustainable development

and waste management of LIB industries, including encouraging the innovation of LIB technology and combining

multiple technologies, strengthening closed-loop management of LIBs, and promoting echelon utilization of EOL

LIBs.

1. Introduction

China is a major manufacturer of batteries, and the lithium-ion

battery (LIB) industry has developed rapidly in recent years

(Richa et al., 2014; Zeng and Li, 2014). In 1998, LIBs were produced at

an elementary industrial scale in China for consumer electronics (CEs)

(Cao, 2005). Since the 21st century, the popularity and development of

CEs have stimulated the rapid growth of LIBs in China (Zhang et al.,

2017). In addition, a large portion of batteries applied in electric ve-

hicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS) have shifted from nickel-

metal hydride batteries and lead-acid batteries (LABs) to LIBs (Liu et al.,

2016; Richa et al., 2014). At present, China produces approximately

60% of the world's LIBs (Shen and Wang, 2019), thereby making it the

world's largest producer and consumer of LIBs.

The production of LIBs consumes a signiﬁcant amount of metal re-

sources, especially lithium and cobalt. Nearly 66% of lithium and 76%

of cobalt were consumed in the production of LIBs in 2016 in China

(Lu et al., 2017; Song et al., 2019). However, the domestic production

of lithium and cobalt is far from meeting the demands of China, and

these resources are heavily dependent on imports (Chen et al., 2019). In

addition, compared with other batteries, LIBs do not contain toxic

heavy metals such as lead and mercury, but they can cause certain

damage to the environment and human health in their production,

consumption, and disposal (Yao et al., 2018). Therefore, the rapid de-

velopment of the LIB industry will inevitably bring signiﬁcant pressure

on the supply of resources and the sustainability of the environment.

Considering these issues, tracking and studying the dynamic evolution

of the metabolism of key metals in LIBs in the past two decades is of

great importance for the sustainable development of the LIB industry,

metal resource management, and environmental protection.

Material ﬂow analysis (MFA) is an analysis method to quantify

material ﬂows and stocks within a speciﬁc system, which invokes

conservation of mass to track the fate of matter along its whole life

cycle in a given system and analyzes the relationships among materials,

human activities, and environmental changes (Graedel, 2019;

Müller et al., 2014). There are some MFA studies on Li and Co for LIBs.

Sun et al. (2018, 2019) analyzed the global ﬂows of lithium and cobalt

and found that China played an important role in the global trading

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105122

Received 8 April 2020; Received in revised form 25 July 2020; Accepted 23 August 2020

⁎

Corresponding author.

E-mail address: wliu@sdu.edu.cn (W. Liu).

Resources, Conservation & Recycling 164 (2021) 105122

networks of lithium and cobalt and that the battery-related application

contained signiﬁcant potential lithium stocks. Hao et al. (2017) ana-

lyzed the anthropogenic cycle of lithium in China in 2015 using a static

MFA model and showed that the growth of electric vehicles with a

critical dependence on LIB technology would greatly increase China's

lithium demand. Zeng and Li (2015) assessed the sustainability of co-

balt reserves in China through a top-down MFA model and found that

the rapid development of CEs and EVs resulting in the shortage supply

of cobalt. This overview shows the importance of LIBs in the anthro-

pogenic cycles of lithium and cobalt. However, these studies usually

focus on one kind of element from LIBs at the global or national level,

and rarely MFA models have been used to analyze the diﬀerence and

connections of multiple materials in an application (Weil et al., 2018).

In addition, despite the rapid development of the LIB industry in China,

many studies usually employ a static top-down MAF model

(Harper et al., 2011 ; Yan et al., 2017). Even though few MFA studies

use a dynamic model, dynamic parameters such as battery life, battery

capacity, and battery recycling rate are rarely used in the model

(Song et al., 2019).

Therefore, this study aims to ﬁll this gap and analyze the evolution

of the industrial metabolism of lithium and cobalt for LIBs in China

from 2000 to 2018 using a dynamic bottom-up MFA model. Many dy-

namic parameters were used in the dynamic MFA model to simulate the

evolution of battery production and use and related resource metabo-

lism. Based on the ﬂows and stocks of LIBs and their quantities of li-

thium and cobalt, the evolution of production, use, EOL, and recycling

of LIBs in China were analyzed, and the driving factors of the evolution

of anthropogenic cycles of lithium and cobalt were also discussed.

Furthermore, the implications for sustainable development of LIB in-

dustries in China were analyzed.

2. Methods and data

2.1. Material ﬂow analysis framework

The target system of MFA is deﬁned by the spatial and temporal

boundaries (Müller et al., 2014). The spatial boundary in this study was

the mainland of China, excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. The

temporal boundary was deﬁned as the period from 2000 to 2018 be-

cause LIBs experienced a change in the development process from

scratch during this period.

The LIB system was the “cradle to grave” scope in this study, re-

ferring to the entire life cycle of LIBs, starting from raw material pro-

duction, production and use of LIBs, and recycling. Retrospective MFA

was used to calculate the ﬂows and stocks of lithium and cobalt within

the LIB system of China. From the life cycle perspective, the life span of

the LIB system was divided into ﬁve stages, namely mining, reﬁning,

manufacturing, use, and waste management (including echelon utili-

zation and material recovery), as shown in Fig. 1.

2.1.1. Mining

China has the most abundant lithium resources worldwide

(Song et al., 2019). There are two types of natural lithium resources,

namely ore and brine. Although brine accounts for 80.5% of the lithium

reserves in China, more than 90.0% of domestic lithium production

comes from ores (USGS, 2018). Owing to the high proportion of mag-

nesium and lithium in salt lakes in China, it is diﬃcult to extract li-

thium. Cobalt resources are scarce in China, and cobalt is usually mined

as a by-product of nickel, copper, and other metals. Therefore, China's

lithium and cobalt resources are heavily dependent on imports. China

imports two types of raw cobalt materials, namely cobalt ore and in-

termediate products of the wet metallurgy process.

2.1.2. Reﬁning

Metal minerals are converted to chemical compounds for LIB pro-

duction in this stage. There are numerous materials after reﬁning, such

as metal carbonate, metal hydroxide, and metal chloride. However,

production information is not available for all of these materials. For

example, lithium carbonate is mainly used to produce LIB cathode

materials, including LiCoO

(LCO), LiMnO

(LMO), LiNi

1-x-y

(NCM), and LiFePO

(LFP), among others. Therefore, only lithium

carbonate is considered as the output of the lithium mineral reﬁning

stage.

2.1.3. Manufacturing

The manufacturing stage refers to the LIB production process and

the assembly process of LIB-driven products. Commercially, LIBs typi-

cally diﬀer by the material of the cathode, with graphite used as the

anode. LIB materials are constantly updated to meet evolving demands.

From past to present, LIBs have changed from early LCO, LMO, and LFP

to NCM/NCA (LiNiCoAlO

) batteries. The metal compositions of the

four types of LIBs are shown in Table S5.

2.1.4. Use

The main uses of LIBs include CEs, EVs, and ESS. With the wide-

spread use of mobile phones and laptops, CEs require batteries with

higher energy density. LIBs have gradually replaced nickel-cadmium

and nickel-hydrogen batteries as the mainstream batteries in CEs be-

cause of the high speciﬁc energy and no memory eﬀect (Espinoza et al.,

2014). Meanwhile, the fast-growing electric automobiles consume a

large number of LIBs. In addition, in the market of electric bicycles,

electric tricycles, renewable energy storage systems in centralized and

distributed wind power and photovoltaic power stations, and unin-

terruptable power supply (UPS) in communication base stations, banks,

and post oﬃces, lead-acid batteries (LABs) are being replaced by LIBs

due to the lower speciﬁc energy density and the risk of lead pollution

(Liu et al., 2016). In this study, mobile phones, laptops, tablets, digital

cameras and power banks are selected to represent CEs. EVs are divided

into electric automobiles, electric bicycles, and electric tricycles. Elec-

tric automobiles are further divided into all-electric passenger cars,

buses, special vehicles, and plug-in hybrid passenger cars and buses.

ESS includes renewable energy storage systems and UPS. The actual

service life of LIBs in diﬀerent end-use products is obtained through the

investigation, as shown in Table S6.

2.1.5. Waste management

There are three directions for EOL LIBs, namely echelon utilization,

material recovery, and storage or disposal. When the battery capacity of

a vehicle decays to below 80% of the original battery capacity, it is

diﬃcult to meet the requirements of EVs, but can be used in areas with

low battery performance, such as ESS, which is the echelon utilization

of power batteries (Han et al., 2019). At present, the batteries reused by

echelon utilization in China are mainly LFP batteries retired from

electric automobiles (Wang and Zhao, 2015). These batteries can con-

tinue to be used as stationary batteries for 5 years (Ji and Zhou, 2019).

However, many LIBs are stored by consumers at the end of their service

life due to the lack of an eﬀective collection system (Ichiro DAIGO,

2007). In addition, some EOL LIBs are disposed of through landﬁlling

and incineration as municipal solid waste (Song et al., 2017). This study

treated both as the loss because the amount of storage and disposal of

EOL LIBs could not be quantiﬁed due to lack of the relevant data.

Therefore, this study assumed that uncollected batteries were lost in

storage or disposal as municipal solid waste by incineration and land-

ﬁlling. More information about the recycling of LIBs can be found in the

Supporting Information (SI).

2.2. Calculation of stocks and ﬂows

Based on the principles of MFA, calculations describing each process

should obey the mass conservation law (Müller et al., 2014). This study

uses a dynamic bottom-up MFA to calculate the stocks of LIBs and

metals in LIBs, which are described in Fig. 2.

W. Liu, et al.

Resources, Conservation & Recycling 164 (2021) 105122

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