1. 每周一谈:原油供需缺口缓慢修复 利好炼化板块盈利 ....................................................................................................... 4
1.1 原油供需缺口缓慢修复 油价中枢有望继续上移 ........................................................................................................ 4
1.2 油价景气 炼化板块盈利稳定性增强 ......................................................................................................................... 5
2. 石油石化板块股票市场行情 ................................................................................................................................................ 6
2.1 板块表现................................................................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 个股涨跌幅 ............................................................................................................................................................... 6
3. 重点石化原料产品价格走势 ................................................................................................................................................ 7
3.1 C1 下游 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7
3.2 C2 下游 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9
3.3 C3 下游 .................................................................................................................................................................... 11
3.4 C4 下游 ................................................................................................................................................................... 13
3.5 苯下游 .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
3.6 甲苯下游................................................................................................................................................................. 16
3.7 二甲苯下游 ............................................................................................................................................................. 17
4. 风险提示 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 18
图 1: 库欣库存快速下降(千桶) ......................................................................................................................................... 4
图 2: OPEC 原油产量(百万桶/日) .................................................................................................................................... 4
图 3: 原油价格(右轴)、天然气价格(左轴)对比(美元/桶,美元/百万英热) ................................................................. 4
图 4: 中国化工品价格指数相对原油价格强弱 ....................................................................................................................... 5
图 5: 石油石化指数涨幅(%) ............................................................................................................................................. 6
图 6: 石油石化子版块涨跌幅(%) ...................................................................................................................................... 6
图 7: 本周石油石化板块领涨个股(%) ............................................................................................................................... 7
图 8: 本周石油石化板块领跌个股(%) ............................................................................................................................... 7
图 9: 原油价格(美元/桶) ................................................................................................................................................... 7
图 10: 动力煤价格(元/吨) ................................................................................................................................................. 7
图 11: LNG 价格(元/吨) ................................................................................................................................................... 7
图 12: 石脑油/乙烯价格(美元/吨) ..................................................................................................................................... 9
图 13: 聚乙烯价格(元/吨) ................................................................................................................................................. 9
图 14: EO/EG 价格(元/吨) ............................................................................................................................................... 9
图 15: PVC 价格(元/吨) ................................................................................................................................................. 10
图 16: 丙烷价格(美元/吨,MB 丙烷美元/加仑右轴) ........................................................................................................11
图 17: 国内丙烯价格(元/吨) ............................................................................................................................................11
图 18: 聚丙烯价格(元/吨) ................................................................................................................................................11
图 19: 聚醚多元醇价格(元/吨) ........................................................................................................................................ 12
图 20: 丁辛醇价格(元/吨) ............................................................................................................................................... 12
图 21: 丙烯酸价格(元/吨) ............................................................................................................................................... 12
图 22: 丁烷/LPG 价格(元/吨) ......................................................................................................................................... 13
图 23: MTBE/丁二烯/异丁烯价格(元/吨) ........................................................................................................................ 13
图 24: BDO/PTMEG 价格(元/吨) ................................................................................................................................... 13
图 25: 纯苯/苯乙烯价格(元/吨,FOB 韩国苯乙烯美元/吨右轴) ...................................................................................... 14
图 26: 聚苯乙烯价格(元/吨) ........................................................................................................................................... 14