没有合适的资源?快使用搜索试试~ 我知道了~
中国重卡行业:未来之路 (商用车).pdf
1.该资源内容由用户上传,如若侵权请联系客服进行举报
2.虚拟产品一经售出概不退款(资源遇到问题,请及时私信上传者)
2.虚拟产品一经售出概不退款(资源遇到问题,请及时私信上传者)
版权申诉
0 下载量 11 浏览量
2023-09-10
19:33:38
上传
评论
收藏 1.11MB PDF 举报
温馨提示
试读
11页
中国重卡行业:未来之路 (商用车).pdf
资源推荐
资源详情
资源评论
Automotive & Assembly Practice
China’s heavy-duty
truck industry:
The road ahead
Premiumization, electrification, autonomous driving, and a value pool
shift to solutions and services will shape the future of heavy-duty
trucks in China.
August 2023
© sinology/Getty Images
This article is a collaborative eort by Saral Chauhan, Thomas (Yinliang) Fang, Peng Jiang,
Alexander Will, Tony (Guansong) Zhou, and Allen (Xiaolei) Zhuang, representing views from
McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice.
Over the past decade, China has experienced an
infrastructure boom and mushrooming demand for
road transportation, leading to rapid growth of the
heavy-duty-truck (HDT) market. Sales of HDTs in
China grew from 600,000 vehicles in 2015 to a peak
of 1.6 million in 2020. Then, in 2022, the HDT market
in China went into a slump; a regional economic
slowdown, COVID19 lockdowns, and the fact that
many customers prepurchased HDTs in 2020 and
2021 resulted in a sales volume of only 700,000
vehicles in 2022 (Exhibit 1).
1
This slump is unlikely to be permanent. Given the
size and resilience of the country’s economy, we
expect the Chinese HDT industry to rebound and
retain a significant and stable commercial base.
1
IHS Markit data on medium and heavy commercial-vehicle industry sales in China, 201022, accessed March 28, 2023.
2
Ibid.
That said, the rapid development of the past decade
will be difficult to replicate.
As of 2022, the top five participants in China’s
HDT market held more than 80 percent of the
market—and the industry is becoming more
concentrated.
2
As demand normalizes after the
boom, the established leaders will likely maintain
their positions at the top of the market, but
competitors from other geographies and adjacent
sectors—including, for example, OEMs that formerly
specialized in electric passenger vehicles—are likely
to continue to jostle for position. Another example is
that some global OEMs are already investing in the
market, localizing their manufacturing by forming or
acquiring Chinese companies to reduce costs and
meet specific needs of local customers.
Exhibit 1
2010
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2025
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.4
0.7
1.0
Short-term
volatility
Rapid growth Short-term
volatility
A large yet
saturated market
–11% p.a.
–25% p.a.
–36% p.a.
Web <2023>
<China Heavy Duty Trucking>
Exhibit <1> of <6>
Estimated heavy-duty-truck sales in China, million units
1
Per annum.
Source: IHS Markit
Heavy-duty-truck sales in China peaked in 2020.
McKinsey & Company
2 China’s heavy-duty truck industry: The road ahead
Four trends that will shape the next era
for Chinese heavy-duty trucks
To support manufacturers’ quest for short-term
sales and long-term growth, we have identified
four of the most notable trends that will likely shape
the Chinese HDT industry in 2030 and beyond:
premiumization (the move toward subpremium and
premium HDTs), electrification, autonomous driving,
and a value pool shift to solutions and services.
Players who capture the opportunities afforded by
these trends could gain momentum and expand
their profit pools, even in the face of increasing
competition.
Premiumization
As customer mixes and demand continue to evolve,
market shifts are spurring higher adoption of
subpremium and premium HDTs. This will require
manufacturers to explore greater reliability, comfort,
and intelligence in their offerings.
We project that the market share of HDTs priced at
more than $60,000 will reach 30 percent by 2030,
up from 10 percent in 2020 (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2
Web <2023>
<China Heavy Duty Trucking>
Exhibit <2> of <6>
Heavy-duty-truck sales volume by price range, %
Source: IHS Markit data on medium and heavy commercial-vehicle industry sales in China, 2020, accessed March 28, 2023
We project that higher-budget trucks will gain a larger share of sales in 2030.
McKinsey & Company
2020
2030
30
20
60
50
9
25
1
5
100%
Premium
(> $100,000)
Subpremium
($60,000–$100,000)
Budget
($40,000–$60,000)
Low end
(< $40,000)
3China’s heavy-duty truck industry: The road ahead
剩余10页未读,继续阅读
资源评论
T0620514
- 粉丝: 1094
- 资源: 1万+
上传资源 快速赚钱
- 我的内容管理 展开
- 我的资源 快来上传第一个资源
- 我的收益 登录查看自己的收益
- 我的积分 登录查看自己的积分
- 我的C币 登录后查看C币余额
- 我的收藏
- 我的下载
- 下载帮助
安全验证
文档复制为VIP权益,开通VIP直接复制
信息提交成功