Team # 201921954 ShuWei Cup Summary 2019 - Team 201921954 page
Team Control Number
201921954
Problem Chosen
A
2019
ShuWei Cup
Summary
This paper focuses on the aging and medical and health needs, combined with the
competition and cooperation between public hospitals and private hospitals. To explore the
process and queuing methods of patients' hospital treatment, and put forward suggestions for the
reform and improvement of relevant medical management departments.
Problem 1: This section uses 1994-2010 data to build ARIMA model to calculate the
population mortality rate, and then uses the population age migration model to calculate the
number of elderly people of all ages. The medical and medical data mainly come from 2010-2017
China Health Statistics Yearbook, and uses matlab2018 programming to build a grey prediction
model GM (1, 1) to predict the medical resources of China Source and service requirements.
Problem 2: Seafood and beer are one of the important causes of cardiovascular and
cerebrovascular diseases. In this section, the data of prehospital emergency cardiovascular and
cerebrovascular diseases in Shandong public hospital from 2011 to 2018 are used, and the single
factor grey GM (1,1) model is used to successfully predict the total number of prehospital
emergency cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases patients in 2019-2023.
Problem 3: The internal medicine patients are relatively dense, and the mobility is also
relatively large. Therefore, taking the outpatient department of internal medicine as an example,
the queuing theory is used to build a queuing model for the outpatient department structure of the
hospital. This paper discusses the M / M / 1 Queuing System with feedback, gives the system state
transition diagram and transition rate matrix, and gives the steady-state results of the system from
the transition rate matrix, including the distribution of the system team leader, the number of
patients waiting in line, the average team leader, the average waiting team leader, etc., which
provides some valuable reference data for the outpatient staffing and the distribution of patients.
Problem4: This paper uses the maximization method to study the cooperative
decision-making problem of resource sharing and utilization, establishes a decision-making model
of medical service product output, and compares the optimal decision-making output of medical
service market and medical service product provided by private hospitals and public hospitals
when they make joint decision-making and independent decision-making respectively.
Problem5:The gray clustering model is used to classify the hospitals which close to
each other, build and share then resources and information.
Key word:ARIMA model;grey model;M / M / 1 Queuing System;decision-making model
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