016号资源-程序：论文可参考《含风光水的虚拟电厂与配电公司协调调度模型》基于概率距离快速削减法的风光场景生成与削减方法

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%蒙特卡罗生成场景，并用基于概率距离的快速前代消除技术进行场景削减%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% clear;clc; %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%生成风电场景并削减%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %风电出力预测均值E Ww=[5.8,6.7,5.8,5.1,6.3,5,6.2,6,4.1,6,7,6.8,6.5,6.9,5,5.6,6,5.8,6.2,4.7,3.3,4.4,5.6,5]; % Ww=[0,0,0,0,0,1,2.5,4,5,5.5,5.8,5.7,5.5,5.3,5.1,5,3.8,2.5,1.2,0,0,0,0,0]; W=0.3*Ww %取标准差为风电出力预测值E的5%-20%,这里x=E*10% l=W*0.1; Ws=[]; %生成一个风电场景，E+x*randn(1,24)，其中randn(1,24)为生成随机数的标准正态分布 m=200; %生成m个场景 for i=1:m s=W+l.*randn(1,24); Ws=[Ws;s]; end figure(1) [ss,gg]=meshgrid(1:200,1:24 ); plot3(ss,gg,Ws,'-'); grid xlabel('场景'); ylabel('时刻'); zlabel('风机出力值'); title('场景生成图'); % legend('负荷曲线1','负荷曲线2 ','负荷曲线3 ','负荷曲线4 ') Ws_d=Ws; %定义削减后的场景 %场景削减 pi=1/m*ones(m,1); %蒙特卡罗生成的场景为等概率场景，建立每个场景的概率向量 %计算风电场景Ws中每对场景的几何距离x x=zeros(m,m); for i=1:m for j=1:m x(i,j)=sum(abs(Ws(i,:)-Ws(j,:))); end end %计算每个场景与剩余场景的概率距离之和y y=zeros(m,1); for i=1:m y(i)=1/m*sum(x(i,:)); end k=length(y); %不断削减场景，直到剩余5个场景 while(k>5) d=find(y==min(y)); %选定与剩余场景的概率距离之和最小的场景 x_2=x+100*eye(k); %构造新的x，以便找出风电场景Ws中与场景d几何距离最小的场景r r=find(x_2(d,:)==min(x_2(d,:))); pi(r)=pi(r)+pi(d); %将d场景的概率加到r场景上 %在风电场景中删除d场景 pi(d)=[]; Ws_d(d,:)=[]; x(d,:)=[]; x(:,d)=[]; y(d)=[]; k=length(y); end figure(2) [ss,gg]=meshgrid(1:5,1:24 ); plot3(ss,gg,Ws_d,'-'); grid xlabel('场景'); ylabel('时刻'); zlabel('风机出力值'); title('场景削减图'); wssa=pi'*Ws_d; figure(3) plot(wssa,'-*'); xlabel('时刻'); ylabel('风机出力'); title('等效风机出力图');