基于MATLAB的尼帕病传播扩散模型的建立_毕业论文.pdf

目 录

中文摘要

..................................................................................................................................... I

英文摘要

...................................................................................................................................III

1

引言

.........................................................................................................................................1

1.1

研究背景

...............................................................................................................................1

2

传染病模型的相关介绍

2.1

人兽共患传染病

..................................................................................................................4

2.2

传染病模型的基本概念

2.3

传染病数学模型的建立流程及方法

2.4

几种常用的传染病传播模型

3

尼帕病简介

...........................................................................................................................12

3.1

尼帕病的起源与流行现状

................................................................................................12

3.2

尼帕病的流行病学特征

3.2.1

病原及毒株分类

..............................................................................................................13

3.2.2 NiV

的致病机理

..............................................................................................................14

4

尼帕病传播模型的建立

4.1

不具有控制措施的

SEIR

模型的建立

............................................................................. 19

4.1.1 SEIR

4.2.2

4.2

考虑隔离和检疫的

4.3

讨论

....................................................................................................................................31

5

结论

.......................................................................................................................................33

6

参考文献

................................................................................................................................34

7

附录

........................................................................................................................................47

8

........................................................................................................................................48

）是由尼帕病毒（

高度致死性人畜共患病，能够引起已感染动物的呼吸系统和中枢神经系统性症状。

的天然宿主是果蝠且对其不致病，对猪感染率高达

100%

，但死亡率仅约为

5%-15%

，

而人感染后的死亡率达到

40%-70%

也可通过被

污染的枣椰树汁而感染，并进一步形成了人与人之间的传播。

具有

并计算出描述疾病爆发的基本再生数和控制再生数。然后应用

MATLAB

程实现对感染人群数量随时间变化规律的仿真，以及基本再生数和控制再生数对模型中

各参数的敏感性，分析其对尼帕病传播的影响以及对控制疾病传播扩散的意义。

发：应在人群中应采取能降低尼帕病患者与易感人群有效接触率的相应措施，比如通过

媒体、讲座等方式提高公众对尼帕病的相关认识来主动的减小与已感染患者的有效接

触。同时对已感染者采取积极地治疗措施，提高尼帕病的治愈率，降低死亡率。在动物

中发现尼帕疫情后，应立即采取扑杀措施，迅速控制疫情，防止其传播扩散。而加入控

制措施的模型的仿真结果表明，严格的检疫和隔离措施对于控制尼帕病的传播具有很重

vrius (NiV) and can cause respiratory and central nervous system symptoms in infected

animals. The natural host of NiV is the fruit bat and it will not be infected by Niv. The

infection rate for pigs is as high as 100%, but the mortality rate is only about 5%-15% while

the mortality rate of human reaches 40%-70%. Humans can become ill through fruit bats, and

intermediate hosts such as infected pigs and horses. They can also be infected by

Niv-contaminated date palm juice and further form human-to-human transmission. NiV has

the characteristics of rapid propagation and high incidence, which seriously threatens public

health security. Although there is no relevant report on the outbreak of NVD in China at

and isolation measures on the basis of reasonable assumptions based on the transmission

mechanism of Nipah disease. And calculate the basic reproduction number and the control

reproduction number that describe whether the disease outbreaks. Then use MATLAB

software to simulate the changing rule of the number of infected people over time, and

analyze the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number and the control reproduction number

to various parameters in the model, analyze it’s influences and significance on the spread

and the control of Nipah disease.

population where there’s no control measures, appropriate measures should be taken to reduce

the effective exposure rate of Nipah patients to susceptible populations. For example,through

should be taken immediately to quickly control the epidemic and prevent its spread. The

simulation results of models including control measures show that strict quarantine and

isolation measures play an important role in controlling the spread of Nipah disease.

Therefore, China should establish a sound quarantine system for Nipah disease, customs and

other departments to increase the intensity of quarantine inspection of Nipah disease, establish

a corresponding quarantine methods and systems, if it is found that the epidemic should be

quickly taken strict isolation measures. At the same time, strict isolation measures should be

taken during the treatment of Nipah infected people to prevent isolation of patients from

transmitting NiV.

Keywords: Nipah;zoonosis;epidemiological characteristics; SEIR model; SEQIJR model