Managing
the
HIV/AIDS
Pandemic
129
Managing
the
HIV/AIDS
Pandemic:
2006-2055
Tyler
Huffman
Barry
Wright
III
Charles
Staats
III
Duke
University
Durham,
NC
Advisor: David
Kraines
Summary
We
begin with
a
thorough
consideration
of
which
nations
face
the
most
criti-
cal
situations
with
respect
to
HIV/AIDS.
We
model an adjusted
life
expectancy,
using
a
short-term
logistic
differential
equation
model,
and
them
mathemati-
cally
define
criticality.
By
continent,
we
conclude
that
the
most
critical
nations
are:
Botswana,
Thailand,
Tonga,
Ukraine,
Bahamas,
and
Guyana.
We
analyze the
futures
of
these
most
critical
nations with
a
versatile
com-
puter
simulation that
deals
directly
with people
rather
than homogenous
pop-
ulations,
as
a
differential
equations
model
would.
Treatment
analysis
includes
estimation
of
the
amount
of
foreign
aid
avail-
able
through
2055
and
predicts
the
effects
of
antiretroviral
treatment
(ART)
and
the possibilities
of
a
preventive HIV/AIDS
vaccine.
We
consider
the
ramifica-
tions
of
drug-resistant strains
We
conclude
with
a
series
of
recommendations
for
how
best
to allocate
resources.
We
recommend intensive
spending
in
the
short
term
on
research
and development
of
a
vaccine,
followed
by
a
global
coverage
of
ART
with
heavy
emphasis on
maintaining
adherence.
The
UMAP
Journal
27
(2)
(2006)
129-144.
@Copyright
2006
by
COMAP, Inc. All
rights
reserved.
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