麦格理-中国-互联网服务业-中国互联网医疗：参与创作-826-78页.pdf
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Please refer to page 76 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
26 August 2019 China
EQUITIES
Internet Healthcare Comps
Company
Ticker
Rating
Price
TP
Upside
PAGD
1833 HK
OP
48.35
65.00
34%
AliHealth
241 HK
OP
7.32
9.30
27%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, August 2019,
Price as of 22 August 2019.
Company
Rev
CAGR*
Mkt Cap
(US$ bn)
3m ADTV
(US$ m)
52w price
range (HK$)
PAGD
51%
7.8
6.05~10.0
AliHealth
68%
6.2
9.8
27.4~52.3
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2019,
*PAGD forecast period 2018-21E, AliHealth forecast period
FY19-22E.
Inside
Key charts 2
Investment summary 5
Accessibility and affordability - two pain
points 6
The Internet is disrupting healthcare market
in China 12
New policies should drive even faster growth
going forward 19
Ping An Healthcare and Technology
(1833 HK) 21
Alibaba Health Information Technology
(241 HK) 48
MacVisit: DHC Software 70
Analysts
Macquarie Capital Limited
John Wang +852 3922 3578
john.wang@macquarie.com
Frank Chen +852 3922 1433
frank.chen@macquarie.com
Ellie Jiang +852 3922 4110
ellie.jiang@macquarie.com
China Internet Healthcare
Present at the Creation
Key points
China’s Internet and insurance giants have a decade-long structural
opportunity to address the challenges of the socialist healthcare system.
We think new policies in the next six months should accelerate growth for
the disruptors.
We initiate coverage of Ping An Good Doctor (PAGD) with 34% TSR and
AliHealth with 27% TSR.
Accessibility and affordability – the two pain points
Skeptics on this sector point out that neither PAGD nor Alihealth is likely to make
a profit for at least 3 years. We think this misses the enormous growth
opportunities for this sector from solving two major pain points: 1) accessibility -
limited healthcare resources and overworked and understaffed healthcare
facilities; and 2) affordability - healthcare expenses grew at 13% annually over
2013-18, considerably faster than the 9% CAGR in disposable income. This is
especially worrisome in the context of funding pressure for social healthcare
insurance backed by government and enterprises. In order to spend an average
of 8 minutes with doctors on diagnosis, patients need to spend 3 hours in traffic
and waiting. Further, an ordinary household in China can spend up to 9% of its
annual expenditures on healthcare. There two bottlenecks are only getting tighter
in China’s rapidly-aging society; over a quarter of the population will be 60 years
or older by 2030.
Socialist healthcare system ripe for disruption
The Internet is disrupting various parts of the value chain of China’s healthcare
market by: 1) enhancing the efficiency of healthcare services with advanced
technologies, such as online medical consultation – PAGD is a pioneer in the
market and could achieve a significant monetization potential; and 2) enabling
end-to-end drug & service distribution channels. Meanwhile, AliHealth is
expanding its GMV rapidly, with its extensive experience in e-commerce retailing
and well-educated user base.
New policies should accelerate growth going forward
Two important new policies should be positive for the sector. On 31 July 2019,
National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) of China announced that the
pricing guideline for online healthcare will be released before the end of
September 2019. This means online healthcare services will soon be included in
the coverage of social healthcare insurance plan. In addition, new measures
on online drug sales are expected to be released before the end of 2019, where
online prescription drug sales will be conditionally allowed.
Outperform rating on the two market leaders
We initiate coverage on PAGD (1833 HK) and AliHealth (241 HK) with 34% and
27% upside, respectively. We think first-mover advantage is very real in this
industry, given high entry barriers. We like PAGD for its: 1) disruptive business
model, which could potentially reshape the healthcare industry value-chain; and
2) positive impact from new policies. We like AliHealth’s straightforward business
model, which will continue to benefit from improving online penetration and more
online-offline integration. Risks associated with both stocks include regulatory
risks, execution risks, and related-party transaction risks.
10.0
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