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巴黎银行-全球-投资策略-资产配置:今夏定位-0717-25页.pdf
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巴黎银行-全球-投资策略-资产配置:今夏定位-0717-25页.pdf
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Please refer to important information at the end of the report and MAR disclosures.
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
New York London Paris Hong Kong Tokyo
09:00 14:00 15:00 21:00 22:00
PASSWORD 'The BNP Paribas Markets Call'
17
JULY
2019
EVERY WEDNESDAY
LIVE
For the webcast click here. All the dial-in details are available at the back of this document
Asset allocation: Positioning for the summer
Senior Cross Asset Strategist
BNP Paribas London Branch
ROBERT MCADIE
Chief Cross Asset Strategist
BNP Paribas London Branch
2
Key contributors
Cross
-Asset Strategy – BNP Paribas London Branch
Robert
McAdie
Chief Cross
-Asset Strategist
44
20 7595 8885
robert
.mcadie@uk.bnpparibas.com
Pierre Mathieu
Senior Cross
-Asset Strategist
44
20 7595 8730
pierre
.g.mathieu@uk.bnpparibas.com
Benedicte Lowe
Cross
-Asset Strategist
44
20 7595 1993
benedicte
.lowe@uk.bnpparibas.com
Kris
Gjini
Macro Quantitative Strategist
44
20 7595 1603
kris
.gjini@uk.bnpparibas.com
Date
Quick
links to previous webcasts
10
-Jul-19
Where has all the volatility gone?
03
-Jul-19
26
-Jun-19
Expecting more ECB accommodation to come
Assessing equity markets in the current low rate environment
19
-Jun-19
Emerging Markets’ shine returns
12
-Jun-19
Assessing risk premium in light of the Fed put
05
-Jun-19
29
-May-19
22
-May-19
15
-May-19
08
-May-19
17
-Apr-19
10
-Apr-19
03
-Apr-19
27
-Mar-19
20
-Mar-19
13
-Mar-19
Trading a market that is expecting a Fed response
Asset Allocation Q3 2019
Global Outlook Q3 2019: Late
-cycle carry
Trade Tensions
The world of credit
– Carry On
Oil market perspectives and market implications
Equity markets fully priced for now?
Low inflation, low rates world
The great Brexit mirage
- a world of uncertainty
Asset Allocation for Q2 2019
Global Outlook: 'Beige
-ilocks' … Weak economy, strong carry
Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas
An underline denotes a change from the previous call
Summer positioning
3
• The current dovish stance by the major central banks is extending the economic cycle and is
compensating for the uncertainty dogging the market. The sharp drop in nominal and real yield are
pushing both volatility and funding costs even lower. In this environment, we have upgraded our carry
trade positions.
• Bond investors are expected to continue to be the biggest beneficiaries from the dovish shift by the
Fed and the ECB. The search for yield has pushed rates lower and compressed the yield curve (especially
in the US). We are of the view that rates will remain low for the near future but with the lack of value in
longer dated bonds in both the US and in Europe, we prefer spread products.
• The yield pick-up should favour US IG credit and push the IG credit curve tighter and flatter. In HY,
we prefer EU HY as a carry trade; despite the better yields, we see the US market as more volatile and
are wary of the rise in dispersion.
• Despite the strong support from lower rates, we still keep a market weight on equities as we see
lack of EPS growth, ongoing uncertainty over the trade tariffs and lack of value affecting the asset class.
US valuations do not look attractive in our opinion and Europe equities lack momentum despite the better
value. We prefer EM equities as they are expected to continue to benefit from the current strength
of inflows, lower local rates, and lower PE ratios.
• We remain wary of the potential fallout on trade between the US and Europe with likely tariffs on
cars and planes hurting the eurozone economy, at a time when it is relying on exports for growth.
This could have a ongoing negative impact on the European auto airline industries.
• Our overweight view on EM local and hard currency bonds is supported by significant drop in US
real yields and expected dovish EM central bank actions. Moreover, we expect the current strong
inflows to continue to drive higher valuations.
• We expect the dollar to remain in the current range over the summer, with a weakening bias over time
as the Fed continues to signal further rate cuts. Furthermore if the growth differential relative to the rest of
the world narrows we expect the dollar to weaken.
• The sharp drop in interest rates, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and our weaker view on the
dollar are supportive for gold. In oil, we are also looking for higher prices, especially in Brent as we
see supply constraints from Iran not fully priced in the market
16/07/2019 LDN
close
Short term
prognosis
Prognosis vs
current
EURUSD 1.1212 1.1300 0.78%
GBPUSD 1.2419 1.2300 -0.96%
USDJPY 108.26 107.00 -1.16%
10y Gilt 0.82% 0.70% -0.12%
10y Bund -25 bp -25 0bp
10y Tsy 2.12% 2.00% -0.12%
10y JGB -12 bp -5 7bp
S&P 3,006 3,000 -0.2%
SX5E 3,521 3,550 0.81%
SX7E 92.0 92.0 -0.02%
FTSE 100 7,577 7,650 0.96%
Nikkei 225 21,535 21,700 0.77%
Gold 1,409 1,450 2.93%
Oil (CL1) 59.0 60 1.78%
Itraxx Main S31 50 50 0bp
Itraxx Xover S31 245 240 -5bp
CDX IG S32 55 50 -5bp
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
6mth loan growth (MFI to non-Fin corporates, lhs)
Flat
ECB M3 Annual growth rate 9rhs)
US economy still looks strong with supportive financial conditions;
Europe remains sluggish, but an accommodative ECB should help
4
Fig. 4: Loan growth and M3 has recently picked up in Europe
pointing to an improvement in growth
Fig. 3: Loosening of financial conditions in the US have been
supported by lower real yields. In Europe, FCONs remain neutral
All sources: BNP Paribas, Bloomberg, Macrobond
Fig. 2: European economic strength and data surprise indicators
remain weak but are starting to improve
Fig. 1: US economic strength remains robust with data surprise
Indicators still negative but improving
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19
Restrictive conditions
Supportive conditions
US Index
EZ Index
Loan growth in the US remains robust. However, the trade tension
driven drop in global capex intentions is a major headwind
5
Fig. 3: Trade uncertainty has resulted in a collapse in capex
intentions – the biggest headwind for growth
All sources: BNP Paribas, Bloomberg, Macrobond
Fig. 2: Demand for shorter dated loans has picked up significantly as rates have fallen
with corporates waiting for the bottoming in rates before issuing longer term loans
Fig. 1: US loan growth remains positive, pointing to a healthy
credit impulse in the US
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
NY Fed probability of a recession
In 2020, the probability
of a recession is higher
than it was in July 2007
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Six mths US Credit Impulse (US LT loan growth)
Six mths US Credit Impulse (CP loan growth)
Flat
Fig. 4: The Fed’s probability of a recession in 2020 is at 25% (same
as the EZ) – a driver of looser monetary policy
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