JP 摩根-全球-投资策略-全球固定收益技术策略-52-21页.pdf

The 10-year note rebound from the 2.605% Mar 1 61.8% retrace and 2.615% Apr

17 yield high rejected key short-term resistance at the 2.46% Apr 10 yield low,

2.445% Mar 27 61.8% retrace, and 2.415% Apr 1 opening bear gap (Chart 1). That

leading risk market first quarter performance and systematic sell signals that

triggered on multiple global bond charts in late-Mar/early-Apr point to a broader

not anticipate the amplitude and duration to match the late-2016/early-2017 global

bond yield rise, the current setup has many similarities to the setup ahead of the mid-

could drive a short-term position squeeze and lead to a retest of the 2.605% Mar 1

through 2.41% gap resistance would lower our conviction in that outlook and turn

and 2.815% Apr 1 gap. The market is now traversing the 2.90s area, which has

that area as well. While we think the market can cheapen through that support in a

3.135% first quarter range cheaps, and 3.13% Oct 50% retrace are likely to contain

selloffs in the months ahead. To lower yields, the market rejected the 2.77-2.78%