巴克莱-美股-资产管理-美国经纪人、资产管理人与交易员：Q4丑陋的资产管理背景-19-22页.pdf
需积分: 0 147 浏览量
2023-07-26
11:50:02
上传
评论
收藏 490KB PDF 举报
Equity Research
9 January 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 17.
U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges
Ugly Asset Mgr. Setup into 4Q Print
Lower asset manager December Quarter EPS 6-20% from prior forecast. We trace
active management underperformance almost across the board as equity and fixed
income returns were mostly in-line to worse than broad indices (Figure 7). This
underperformance, combined with (likely) outflows drag on AUM & have a negative
fundamental read through to earnings (yielding 1%-10% downward EPS revisions)
while 2
nd
order impacts like weak incentive revenue & fair value marks add additional
weakness (driving additional 3%-18% downward EPS revisions).
AUM/EPS Weakness—qualitatively understood but potential for downside surprise:
In a perfectly efficient market, the impact of a market pullback on AUM/EPS would be
fully reflected in the stock, but we see potential downside risk. The magnitude of the
December AUM decreases (2%-6% below November, Figure 3) could surprise those
that haven’t sharpened pencils as the big market drawdown & sizeable outflows
happened in the latter half of the month when many were already on holiday break.
Additionally, most Street models take a simple average of period-end AUMs to drive
revenue, which would overstate 4Q Avg. AUM & revenues as the sell-off began almost
immediately in October & stayed low thereafter. On balance, fundamentals (weak
flows/performance, etc) drove 1%-10% downward EPS revisions (vs. 6-20% in total).
2
nd
order EPS impacts—hard to model, non-obvious, & possibly large drag on EPS:
Negative marks on Asset Manger seed books and weak incentive fee revenue (in a
typically seasonally strong 4Q) are not top-of-mind modeling adjustments for the sell-
or buy-side, but could have a material impact on the EPS print. Though terribly difficult
to model, our best effort translated to 3%-18% downward earnings revisions for the
quarter vs. our prior forecast (which in addition to the 1%-10% negative fundamental
revision, yielded the total 6%-20% total decrease in December quarter forecasts). Our
line item forecasts are likely off but directionally correct as actual marks/incentive
comp should come in well below prior levels (& seemingly most Street models). We
estimate each $20mm change in performance/incentive revenue (at a ~50% pass
through to incentive comp) and every $10mm change in fair value marks (no opex
offset) translates to a 1%-11% change in EPS for the quarter (see Figure 2 for details).
AM stocks sold off, but don’t fully contemplate fundamental & 2
nd
order weakness:
Although most asset manager stocks drastically sold since November (down 7-15%, vs.
S&P down ~7%), we believe reported December-end AUM levels may be lower than
most anticipate, yielding possible weakness on the monthly AUM prints over the next
week and into earnings (as some may mis-calculate average AUM). Additionally, while
some may view fair value marks on the seed book & weak performance/incentive
revenue as noise, headline misses would certainly not help improve sentiment on a
pretty disliked subsector and could yield additional downside absent a robust rally in
the broad market ahead of Jan/Feb earnings calls.
INDUSTRY UPDATE
U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges
NEUTRAL
Unchanged
For a full list of our ratings, price target and
earnings changes in this report, please see
table on page 2.
U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges
Jeremy Campbell, CFA
+1 212 526 9750
jeremy.campbell@barclays.com
BCI, US
Francesca Kruk
+1 212 526 3856
francesca.kruk@barclays.com
BCI, US
Jason Weber
+ 1 212 526 9406
jason.weber@barclays.com
BCI, US
Ben Jackson
+1 212 526-3006
Ben.Jackson@barclays.com
BCI, US
剩余21页未读，继续阅读
资源评论
