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Equity Research

1 March 2019

CORE

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors

should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18.

Restricted

- Internal

U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

Barclays Tools Industrial Tracker –

February 2019: Global PMIs Show

Further Moderation

Geographic PMIs mostly showed continued moderation in February, with China as

the lone bright spot. After rebounding in January, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

fell to 54.2 (down 2.4 m/m). As an important region for our Life Science Tools

coverage, we were encouraged to see an improvement in China (49.9, up 1.6 m/m),

with the region now hovering on the expansionary/contractionary border (at 50.0).

Beyond the U.S. and China, Europe, the U.K., and Japan all posted relative moderation

for the month. As PMIs moderate, we believe future PMI trends will be important to

watch for a read into trends further into 2019, serving as a 1-2 quarter leading

indicator. The industrial end market represents an important set of customers for our

Life Science Tools coverage, making up anywhere from 10-25% of revenues for the

diversified companies. We continue to favor Agilent and Thermo Fisher in our Life

Science Tools coverage with Overweight ratings. As a reminder, revenue generation

for the Life Science Tools companies is highly correlated with end market growth in the

company’s individual geographies. The latest readings suggest:

 US Composite PMI from ISM of 54.2 for February 2019, down -2.4 m/m

 Europe Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 49.3 for February 2019, down -1.2 m/m

 UK Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 52.0 for February 2019, down -0.6 m/m

 Germany Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 47.6 for February 2019, down -2.1

m/m

 Japan Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 50.3 for February 2019, down -1.4 m/m

 China Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 49.9 for February 2019, up 1.6 m/m

We also track capital spending levels at chemical and energy companies, oil prices, and

rig counts to gauge the health of the industrial end market. While recent macro

headlines have been choppier, we believe visibility is good for near-term trends in

the industrial end market growth. Following the completion of 4Q18 earnings, CapEx

from E&P companies is expected to decline by 10% in 2019, lower than our tracker’s

previous forecast, which we believe reflects new assumptions around the lower price of

oil. E&P spending can be viewed as a leading indication for downstream spending.

While international rig counts continue to show year-over-year improvements,

recent weakness in the price of oil will be something to monitor.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

NEUTRAL

Unchanged

U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

Jack Meehan, CFA

+1 212 526 3909

jack.meehan@barclays.com

BCI, US

Mitchell Petersen

+1 212 526 3367

mitchell.petersen@barclays.com

BCI, US

Andrew Wald

+1 212 526 9436

andrew.wald@barclays.com

BCI, US

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

1 March 2019 2

Barclays Tools Industrial Tracker – Geographic PMIs February

2019 Update

Geographic PMIs mostly showed continued moderation in February, with China as the

lone bright spot. After rebounding in January, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to

54.2 (down 2.4 m/m). As an important region for our Life Science Tools coverage, we were

encouraged to see an improvement in China (49.9, up 1.6 m/m), with the region now

hovering on the expansionary/contractionary border (at 50.0). Beyond the U.S. and China,

Europe, the U.K., and Japan all posted relative moderation for the month. As PMIs

moderate, we believe future PMI trends will be important to watch for a read into trends

further into 2019, serving as a 1-2 quarter leading indicator. The industrial end market

represents an important set of customers for our Life Science Tools coverage, making up

anywhere from 10-25% of revenues for the diversified companies. We continue to favor

Agilent and Thermo Fisher in our Life Science Tools coverage with Overweight ratings.

As a reminder, revenue generation for the Life Science Tools companies is highly correlated

with end market growth in the company’s individual geographies. The latest readings

suggest:

 US Composite PMI from ISM of 54.2 for February 2019, down -2.4 m/m

 Europe Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 49.3 for February 2019, down -1.2 m/m

 UK Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 52.0 for February 2019, down -0.6 m/m

 Germany Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 47.6 for February 2019, down -2.1 m/m

 Japan Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 50.3 for February 2019, down -1.4 m/m

 China Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 49.9 for February 2019, up 1.6 m/m

To help investors gauge end market activity, we have developed the Barclays PMI

Trackers. The trackers represent a weighted-average of growth in Agilent, Mettler Toledo,

PerkinElmer, Thermo Fisher, and Waters’ underlying geographies using PMI data from ISM

is the United States and Markit internationally. On a one-quarter lag, the Barclays Agilent,

Mettler Toledo, PerkinElmer, Thermo Fisher, and Waters PMI Trackers have a 65%, 61%,

61%, 50%, and 36% correlation with organic growth in the following quarter,

respectively.

 The Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker for FY2Q19 registers at 51.5 (down 1.6 q/q).

 The Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 51.8 (down 1.6 q/q).

 The Barclays PerkinElmer PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 51.5 (down 1.7 q/q).

 The Barclays Thermo Fisher PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 52.3 (down 1.9 q/q).

 The Barclays Waters PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 51.9 (down 1.6 q/q).

Please reach out to us if you would like a copy of the Barclays PMI Trackers.

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

1 March 2019 4

Agilent PMI Tracker Takeaways

Through February, the Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker for FY2Q19 registers at 51.5 (down

1.6 q/q). Approximately 66% of Agilent’s revenues are generated outside of the United

States, with exposure to Asia (36%) and Europe (30%) for the company. The Barclays

Agilent PMI End Market Tracker has a 65% one-quarter leading correlation with the

company’s organic growth rate. There is a noticeable trend between Agilent’s geographic

exposure and growth over the past 40 quarters (as far back as international data can be

tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading indicator, and

expansionary tracker performance to start the year gives us good conviction in

Agilent’s ability to hit its FY2019 guidance of 5.0-5.5% organic growth.

FIGURE 6

Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker (October FYE)

Source: Company Documents, Barclays Research

As a reminder, Agilent reported FY1Q19 earnings on February 20, 2019. Geographically,

Agilent posted low single-digit growth in China, though off of a tough comp (19% in

FY1Q18). Results were in line with the company’s expectations for a weaker FY1Q18.

Importantly, the company noted that overall market demand remains solid in China. The

company highlighted growth in pharma & biotech as well as environmental.

Alternatively, the rebound in Food has been slower than expected. As background, Agilent

has been impacted by the reorganization of the Chinese food ministry. Importantly, the

company has not much of a difference in customer behavior as a result of tariffs. The

company has initiatives in place to offset the duty impact. In 2019, Agilent is expecting a

quarterly headwind of $4mm of incremental cost. For 2019, Agilent is guiding to high

single-digit growth in China.

Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker Takeaways

Through February, the Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 51.8

(down 1.6 q/q). Approximately 63% of the company’s revenues are generated outside of

the United States, with significant exposure Europe (28%) and China (17%). The Barclays

Mettler Toledo PMI End Market Tracker has a 61% one-quarter leading correlation with

the company’s organic growth rate. There is a noticeable trend between Mettler Toledo’s

geographic exposure and growth over the past 39 quarters (as far back as international

data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading

indicator, and note that more modest PMI readings (but still expansionary) align well

with Mettler Toledo’s 5% organic growth guidance, which also represents a modest y/y

deceleration.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

-30%

-20%

-10%

10%

20%

30%

PMI

% Growth

SS Revenue Growth

Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

1 March 2019 5

FIGURE 7

Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker (December FYE)

Source: Company Documents, Barclays Research

As a reminder, Mettler Toledo reported 4Q18 earnings on February 7, 2019. During the

quarter, Mettler Toledo realized broad based geographic growth in 4Q18, highlighted

by 12% organic growth in China. For 2019, Mettler Toledo is forecasting MSD or slightly

below organic growth in the Americas and Europe. In Asia/ROW, organic growth is

forecasted to grow in the MSD or slightly better in 2019.

 American revenue (37% of 4Q18 total) increased 7% organically. Lab had good

growth in the quarter, while Retail was flat. In Industrial, Product Inspection was flat, but

Core Industrial was up strongly.

 European revenue (32% of total) increased 6% in organically. While Retail was down in

the quarter, strength in Lab and Industrial drove the results. Mettler Toledo is confident

in its ability to use its upgrade cycles to drive growth in Europe through an uncertain

macro environment.

 Asia and ROW (31% of total) grew 10% organically. China again performed well in the

quarter, growing 12%. China showed broad strength across Lab and Industrial. While

Mettler Toledo is not seeing any slowdown in demand in China, the company remains

more cautious on the economic backdrop in the region due to recent trade

developments. Relative to the last downturn, the company believes that its portfolio is

significantly more defensive, which should help to insulate it from a major slowdown in

growth.

PerkinElmer PMI Tracker Takeaways

Through February, the Barclays PerkinElmer PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 51.5

(down 1.7 q/q). Approximately 67% of the company’s revenues are generated outside of

the United States, with significant exposure to emerging markets. The Barclays

PerkinElmer PMI End Market Tracker has a 61% one-quarter leading correlation with

the company’s organic growth rate. There is a noticeable trend between PerkinElmer’s

geographic exposure and growth over the past 39 quarters (as far back as international

data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading

indicator, and note that more modest PMI readings (but still expansionary) are

consistent with PerkinElmer’s 6% organic growth guidance, which also represents a

modest y/y deceleration.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

10%

15%

20%

PMI

% Growth

Adj. SS Revenue Growth

Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker

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