LaTex美赛论文模板带目录

For office use only

T1

T2

T3

T4

Team Control Number

0000

Problem Chosen

A

For office use only

F1

F2

F3

F4

3 List of Notation · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 4

4 The Sanctuary Selection Model · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 5

5 The Demand Distribution Model · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 6

6 The Comprehensive Evacuation Planning Model · · · · 9

6.1 Model Preparation · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 9

6.2 Modeling · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 11

6.3 Model Solution · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 13

7 Strengths and Weaknesses· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 15

7.1 Strengths· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 15

7.2 Weaknesses and Extensions· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 15

1.1 Background

Natural disasters(such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, etc.) have always

been a kind of obstacles that are difficult to overcome for mankind. Most area

along the coast are often hit by hurricanes or typhoon, causing major economic

losses and human casualties.

Ten years ago hurricane Katrina had a devastating effect on the economies of

several states, causing many deaths and much suffering.

All hurricanes are assigned a category: from 1 (the weakest) to 5 (the strongest,

like Katrina). The category and the location of landfall are first predicted about

4 days in advance. Predictions are revised using updated information 48 hours

Build a model to advise MSEMA on an optimal strategy: which counties

should be ordered to evacuate, when, and where to. The first page of your

manuscript should be a one page non-technical, executive summary for the gov-

ernor of Mississippi. It should describe your main recommendations, the criteria

you used to evaluate their effectiveness, and any caveats you believe are impor-

tant to mention.

Time permitting, your model should also account for the fact that evacu-

ations initiated in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi affect each other. For

example, a large portion of the New Orleans population will likely evacuate

through Jackson, MS using highways 59 and 55. If the population of Jackson

out to be stronger than expected, your constituents might end up stuck in traffic

in affected areas. On the other hand, if you order the evacuation too early, this

disruption carries a high economic cost - coastal areas generate much revenue for

your state and early predictions about the expected hurricane strength/landfall

time/location might be inaccurate.

1.3 Our Work

Originally topic asked us to review the current evacuation strategies of Mis-

sissippi. However, they did not give any current strategies, but just let us to

establish a new personnel evacuation model, which is used to solve the question

which counties should be ordered to evacuate, when, and where to. In addition,

predictions about the expected hurricane strength/landfall time/location might

be inaccurate.

For the question of which counties should be evacuated and where to, we es-

tablished a sanctuary selection model. We determine the extent of the hurricane

according to the magnitude of the hurricane. Assume that the landing site of the

hurricane is near the coastal area in southern Mississippi, we use the latitude to

determine the extent of the hurricane in Mississippi according to the category,

and define the area within the extent as the evacuation zone. All counties within

the evacuation zone are required to evacuate, and outside the evacuation area,

we can define it to be the safety zone. Selected in the safety zone, the sanctuar-

erance and so on.

In view of the uncertainty of the demand of the personnel during the evacua-

tion process, we established a demand distribution model. In the event of natural

disasters, the cumulative percentage of evacuation demand can be calculated by

the time-varying curve function. The demand distribution defines the number of

people arriving at the assembly point during the evacuation process, depending

on the potential population of the evacuation area depending on the transport

system. This demand not only has spatial dependence, but also has time depen-

dence.

For the question of when to evacuate, we established a comprehensive evac-

of people gathered at the station nodes, the traffic flow of the road conform to the

s-type distribution law, the road congestion condition and other comprehensive

consideration to solve the shortest time.

In addition, we further considered the mass evacuation of floating popula-

tion will affect the relative capacity of refuge, traffic congestion degree, etc., and

put forward the optimization scheme: when the forecast hat hurricane level is

high, we can arrange inland evacuation ahead to reduce the road pressure, and

coastal remove later can increase the economic benefit, reducing the loss in a cer-

tain extent.

Finally, we considered the evacuation time, evacuation risk and economic

loss comprehensively to get the optimal solution.