论文研究-成败型系统可靠性增长的动态Bayes评定方法.pdf
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30
4
Vol.30, No.4
2010
4
Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice Apr., 2010
: 1000-6788(2010)04-0695-05
: TB114.3
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Dynamic Bayesian evaluation method for binomial
system with reliability growth
XING Yun-yan, WU Xiao-yue
(College of Information Systems and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)
Abstract Considering that there are multiple-stages field data and product performance parameters
take on dynamic change trend during the process of product development, a dynamic Bayesian evaluation
method for binomial system reliability is proposed in this paper. The approach uses the discrete AMSAA
model to describe the change trend of product reliability according to the existent multiple-stages field data,
and make prediction for product reliability at new-stage. Then, the prior distribution of product reliability
at new-stage is given by referring to the Maximum Entropy Method. Along with the small quantity of field
data, the Bayesian evaluation of product reliability is made by the proposed method. Numerical example
indicates that the approach can properly solve the problem of product reliability evaluation under the
condition of small sample size.
Keywords reliability growth; Bayesian methods; discrete AMSAA model; binomial; dynamic evaluation
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