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Low Carbon Economy, 2019, 10, 31-46

http://www.scirp.org/journal/lce

ISSN Online: 2158-7019

ISSN Print: 2158-7000

DOI:

10.4236/lce.2019.102003 Jun. 30, 2019 31

Low Carbon Economy

Meeting Nationally Determined Contribution

Targets: Projecting Kenya’s Motor Vehicle

Emissions

Fahd Mohamed Omar Al-Guthmy

, Wanglin Yan

Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract

Kenya still uses a purely value-based motor vehicle taxation system. No envi-

ronmentally focused fiscal policies exist for vehicle ownership and usage, yet

up to a quarter of the country’s carbon dioxide emissions originate from the

transport and energy sectors. To achieve its Nationally Determined Contribu-

tion (NDC) objectives for road transport, current vehicle taxes should be re-

vised to reduce emissions through incentivizing newer and hybrid vehicle

imports. The study projects Kenya’s motor vehicle inventory using busi-

ness-as-usual scenario building projections to determine the country’s emis-

sions and public revenue. The results conclude that vehicle age is directly

proportional to the tax rate and therefore motor vehicle CO

emissions could

be decreased significantly by amending the current t

ax policies to incentivize

a shift in consumer car choice and help Kenya meet its NDC emissions re-

duction target for 2030.

Keywords

Kenya, CO

Emissions, Road Transport, Vehicle Tax

1. Introduction

Kenya is considered a fiscal state. “A fiscal state is one that uses taxation and

similar forms of revenue in order to obtain adequate income for its survival and

development... The Kenyan state can currently be considered as being in a pe-

riod of fiscal expansion” [1]. As one of the fastest growing economies in Africa,

the Kenyan government has been faced with a growing need to meet its national

budget, and one of the major revenue generators is motor vehicle import taxes

which account for up to 12% of the total annual revenue.

How to cite this paper:

Al-

Guthmy,

.M.O. and Yan, W.L. (2019) Meeting Na-

tionally Determined Contribution Targets:

Projecting Kenya’s Motor Vehicle

Emis-

sions

Low Carbon Economy

, 31-46.

https://doi.org/10.4236/lce.2019.102003

Received:

March 9, 2019

Accepted:

June 27, 2019

Published:

June 30, 2019

9 by author(s) and

Scientific

Research Publishing Inc.

This work is licensed under the Creative

Commons Attribution International

License (CC BY

4.0).

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Open Access

F. M.O. Al-Guthmy, W. L. Yan

DOI:

10.4236/lce.2019.102003 32

Low Carbon Economy

With a growing population of over 46 million people and a vehicle inventory

of about 2.43 million [2], 99% of which are used when purchased while a neglig-

ible number are hybrid vehicles, Kenya has identified its transport system as a

high carbon concern. This is partly due to the country growing rapidly without

accompanying transportation and infrastructure services. “This lack of policy is

made manifest by a transportation system characterized by severe congestion,

high-polluting vehicles, lack of pedestrian and bicycle lanes, lack of accessible,

high-quality public transport options, and deteriorating infrastructure” [3].

In Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) report tabled at the

2015 United Nations (UN) Climate Change Convention in Paris, it states 25% of

the country’s emissions come from the transport and energy sectors, the rest be-

ing agricultural outputs. One of the aims of NDC is to achieve a Low carbon and

efficient transportation system. To do this, the target pledged is to reduce emis-

sions by 30% by 2030 relative to the “Business as Usual” (BAU) scenario. How-

ever, there seems to be a disconnection between the NDC target and the current

taxation system because Kenya has always had a value-based, ad valorem

vehicle

import tax, revised in 2005. Older cars would be depreciated by 10% per year

and therefore are subject to significantly lower taxes than newer vehicles.

There are two broad classes of vehicle taxes: Direct and differentiated taxes.

Direct taxes are charged during the ownership of the vehicle whilst differentiated

taxes are those charged in order to own a vehicle. Vehicle import taxes are

therefore differentiated taxes and differ from carbon/emissions taxes. Usually,

carbon taxes rise with the level of emissions of a given motor vehicle whilst

emissions-based differentiated taxes are structured in ways to encourage the

purchase of lower-emitting vehicles thereby increasing a country’s overall motor

vehicle inventory efficiency.

Kenya has had a history of incorporating transport-related policy documents

with one of the more recent ones: the 2010 Integrated National Transport Policy

sessional paper, highlighting transportation as a major challenge that still needs

to be addressed due to inadequate provisions for environmental protection [4].

2. Key Issues of Vehicle Taxation in Kenya

Policy solutions are vital. Understanding the behavioral responses of individuals

to the actions of government will always be of interest to a wide spectrum of so-

ciety [5]. It will inform policy-makers to be confident that the policies they pur-

sue will bring about the desired technological changes at acceptable costs [6]

reaffirming that car owner’s import decisions are heavily influenced by the fiscal

policies, therefore meaning that a shift to newer and hybrid imports is highly

likely following the implementation of an effective tax model targeting emissions

reduction.

Research on a country’s NDC feasibility is limited. The gap lies where vehicle

fiscal policies alone can influence a country’s vehicle inventory to meet emissions

targets. A study conducted in 2004 aimed at predicting impacts associated with

F. M.O. Al-Guthmy, W. L. Yan

DOI:

10.4236/lce.2019.102003 33

Low Carbon Economy

different policies in the automobile industry. The findings observed that increased

regulation penalties can result in cost savings for all parties (consumers, producers

of vehicles and the government). Therefore, a regulatory standard needs to be ap-

plied in order to control the behavior of the consumers concerned [7].

In 2015, the Kenyan government introduced a law that made the excise duty

component a flat percentage rate only for vehicles less than 3 years old. Accord-

ing to the 2015-2016 budget statement, this was done in a bid to raise revenue

for the Kes. 2.1 trillion budget and to “promote environmentally friendly im-

ports”. The law was considered to be a failure because it taxed more expensive

and polluting vehicles considerably less than their counterparts. It was reversed

in June 2016 back to the previously used value-based, ad valorem tax tariff, hav-

ing no emissions reductions incentives. To this date, Kenya still uses a purely

value-based vehicle import taxation system. No environmentally based fiscal

policies exist for passenger vehicle imports and usage, yet up to a quarter of the

county’s emissions originate from vehicle and energy use.

During the short period when the excise tax was flattened, Kenyan media re-

leased some reports about some Kenyans who had identified a legal loophole in

order to circumvent the vehicle taxes by bringing cars through neighboring

Uganda, which shares a custom territory with Kenya. This observation showed

the laws of unintended consequences unfold before the government reversed the

tax. Harrington and McConnell in their paper Motor Vehicles and the Environ-

ment, state that “vehicle taxes are probably too low and often of the wrong form

to reflect the full economic costs to society of vehicle use… There has been

strong reluctance… to use prices to reflect external costs”. They go on to add,

“We observe one of the greatest dilemmas for policymakers—contending with

the unintended consequences that often result if the policy is targeted too nar-

rowly on only one issue” [8].

A closer look at the tax structure and trends of vehicle imports in Kenya re-

veals that older vehicles of up to 8 years are the preferred imports possibly due to

their being the lowest taxed. The effects are that “there are too many old vehicles

imported into the country which contribute immensely to the high levels of pol-

lutants than the maximum recommended level by the World Health Organiza-

tion” [9]. The unevenness in age of imported vehicles strongly suggests that tax-

es have a role to play because vehicles across high and low-price ranges are im-

ported as the oldest allowable imports.

However, a landmark journal that investigated air pollution regulations in 18

countries discouraged the use of declining taxes based on vehicle age. At the

time, it concluded, “high taxes on ownership of new vehicles, with declining tax

rates as the vehicle ages, also tend to increase the value of older vehicles and re-

duce their scrappage rate. From an emissions perspective, flat or even increasing

taxes on vehicle ownership as a function of age would be preferable to a declin-

ing tax rate. Even better would be a tax based on vehicle emissions levels” [10].

Import vehicle taxes can also be used as control mechanisms on a country’s

vehicle inventory [11]. Therefore, a recurring environmental (emissions-based)

F. M.O. Al-Guthmy, W. L. Yan

DOI:

10.4236/lce.2019.102003 34

Low Carbon Economy

tax system would be necessary in addition to a new import tax model, primarily to

cover the tax revenue shortfall. The Kenyan Government clearly needed to rethink

its approach when developing the motor vehicle tax model. Failures such as the

recent excise tax bill accounted for several devastating consequences including:

1) Inequity of the excise tax to importers of lower-priced vehicles because the

more expensive luxury cars were taxed less, and lower valued vehicle owners

ended up paying higher taxes relative to the previous tariff. Also, some importers

sought alternatives by leveraging on neighboring country’s friendlier laws.

2) This resulted in reduced imports leading to a ripple effect on complemen-

tary industries.

3) The revenue authority missing its half-year budget from vehicle taxes by a

whopping 20%.

This conundrum poses the obvious question: How will the country be able to

achieve its objectives by 2030 for reducing emissions in the transport sector

without enormous expenditures in infrastructure or administrative costs and

subsequently risking losing its revenues? In order to answer this question, we

must look at the key players involved through the triple bottom perspective. The

three primary stakeholders that are affected by an emissions-based fiscal policy

are connected as follows:

a) The government creates fiscal policies through taxes to earn revenue for the

country’s development.

b) The ownership or import tax model affects people’s car choice criteria such

as the age and types of vehicles imported.

c) This in turn influences climate change advocates/lobbyists interests of the

overall levels of emissions going forward, which in this case is a 30% reduction

relative to the BAU scenario.

Therefore, this study highlights the current trend of emissions and proposes a

shift in fiscal policy which will spur an increase in newer and hybrid vehicle

purchases.

Environment-oriented fiscal reforms have been shown to be successful in

many countries. “Countries such as Germany, Spain, Sweden, UK, Canada, Aus-

tria, Finland, Portugal, USA, South Africa have applied various types of vehicle-

related taxation schemes to control the emissions of greenhouse gases” [12].

We implemented our approach by projecting the country’s emissions, taking

into consideration Kenya’s NDC pledge to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030.

The contributions of this paper are as follows:

1) We identify various issues with both the current and previous tax regimes

including:

a) The failure of both tax tariffs to incorporate an effective environmentally

focused fiscal line item;

b) The reversal of the revised tax regime to the old regime due to a lack of

consumer equity as narrated by the cabinet secretary at the time;

c) The lack of a contingency to recoup potential deficit in public revenue as a

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