论文研究-社会保障，退休与经济增长资源-CSDN文库

生育能力

社会保障

154 浏览量 2020-05-24 11:50:26 上传评论收藏 1.48MB PDF 举报

资源详情

资源评论

Theoretical Economics Letters, 2018, 8, 3481-3491

http://www.scirp.org/journal/tel

ISSN Online: 2162-2086

ISSN Print: 2162-2078

Social Security, Retirement and Economic

Growth

Kuo-Ting Hua

Department of Economics, National Chi Nan University, Taiwan

Abstract

Population aging alters decisions of retirement and intergenerational trans-

fers simultaneously. With the consideration of both decisions, this paper in-

vestigates the economic impacts of population aging in an Overlap-

ping-Generation (OLG)

model under social security coverage. Results show

that the economy grows slower with voluntarily increased elderly labor

supply than otherwise. Ignoring the interactions between these decisions may

lead to a serious mis-estimation. Results also show that mandatory postpon-

ing retirement creates disincentive to saving and hinders the economy. To

prevent the economy from slowing down and fertility from falling, mandato-

ry postponing retirement must be accompanied by a lower replacement ratio.

Keywords

Retirement, Fertility, Social Security, Growth

1. Introduction

Over the last few decades, people are getting worried about the changes posed by

the burden of population aging on the working generation and eventually on the

economy. With population aging, working parents choose to postpone their re-

tirement [1] [2] [3]. With additional labor supply from the elderly, the economy

grows faster. However, under Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) social security coverage,

working parents pay more social security tax for the elderly and save more for

their retirement while spending less on their children [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]. The

economy grows slower because of the loss of education investment. These two

independent lines of literature conclude differently on the economic perfor-

mance.

Figure 1 depicts impacts of population aging in OECD countries. Notice that

retirement age is increasing and fertility and education investment percentage

How to cite this paper:

Hua, K.-T. (2018

)

Social Security, Retirement and Economic

Growth

Theoretical Economics Letters

3481

-3491.

https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2018.815214

Received:

October 15, 2018

Accepted:

December 2, 2018

Published:

December 5, 2018

2018 by author and

Scientific

Research Publishing Inc.

This work is licensed under the Creative

Commons Attribution International

License (CC BY

4.0).

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Open Access

DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.815214 Dec. 5, 2018 3481 Theoretical Economics Letters

K.-T. Hua

Figure 1. Population aging in OECD countries in 2014. Source: Life expectancy (Life ex-

pectancy at birth), fertility (total fertility rate), saving rate (gross saving rate as % of GDP)

from World Bank; retirement age (average effective age of retirement) and education in-

vestment (tertiary spending per student) from OECD.

are decreasing simultaneously with life expectancy. Gross saving rate presents an

inverted U pattern.

Working parents make their decisions about their own retirement and inter-

generational transfers simultaneously. On the one hand, population aging per-

mits the working population to postpone their retirement and adjust the labor

supply accordingly. This tends to increase lifetime income. Working parents

have more financial resources available for children. On the other hand, it bur-

dens the working population more by increasing social security tax rate. Parents

tend to reduce fertility and education investment. Therefore, the overall effects

on the fertility, education and, thus, economic growth, are not theoretically clear

yet. For example, Mizuno and Yakita [9] endogenized fertility and showed that

population aging leads to a rise in the fertility without assessments of social se-

curity and economic performance.

Constructing an Over Lapping-Generations growth (OLG) model with indi-

viduals making retirement decisions under social security coverage, this paper

makes several contributions to the literature. First, this study bridges the litera-

ture of household resources allocation decisions to the literature of retirement

decisions. Theoretical results show that the effects of heavier tax burden domi-

nate the effects of postponing retirement on the fertility and economic growth

when population ages. Second, the results of this study help provide a better un-

derstanding of the consequences of the retirement policies. The empirical results

show that retirement decisions might be bounded by mandatory retirement pol-

icy. These results also match the theoretical predictions that mandatory late re-

tirement policy leads to a higher fertility but a lower economic growth rate.

2. Retirement Model

Consider a discrete time and finite horizon OLG model with PAYG social security

DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.815214 3482 Theoretical Economics Letters

K.-T. Hua

coverage and both decisions of retirement and intergenerational transfers, in-

cluding fertility and education investment.

The production of the homogenous output

uses physical capital

(

i.e.

, de-

preciates fully after one period) and effective labor

as inputs in the conven-

tionally neoclassical fashion (Mizuno and Yakita [9]). Under perfect competition

assumption, the real wage rate

and the gross rate of return on physical capital

are

(

)

w Ak

= −

(1)

r Ak

−

(2)

where

t t ct

k KH=

represents physical capital per effective labor,

> 0 total

factor productivity and

( )

0,1

∈

the share of

There are a large number of homogenous working parents, school-aged young

children, and retired grandparents in this model economy. Since our main focus

is on the population aging in relatively advanced economies, the survival rate is

100% from children to parents and is

( )

0,1

p ∈

from parents to grandparents.

A parent of generation t decides his current consumption

, his retirement con-

sumption

t+1

, number of identical children

children’s human capital level

t+1

, and the amount of time in working when old

( )

0,1

∈

. His expected life-

time utility is

( )

1 12 1 3 1

ln ln ln ln 1

t t t tt t

u c p d nh p l

σσ σ

++ +

=+ + +−

(3)

where

σσ

and

denote the tastes toward the retirement consumption,

children, and leisure time when old, respectively. A child of generation

+ 1

ob-

tains education investment

from his parent and spends all his childhood in

learning. He accumulates human capital according to

1t tt

h Be h

ββ

−

denotes

the productivity of learning process and

(

)

0,1

∈

the elasticity of human cap-

ital accumulation with respect to education investment. The conventional as-

sumptions of diminishing returns to scale in

and constant returns to scale in

both et and

are applied here.

A working parent with 1 unit of time endowment considers sacrificing

frac-

tion of time raising each child, earning labor wage at

, paying social security

tax at

( )

0,1

∈

, saving for his own old age consumption, and investing child-

ren’s education. His budget constraints are

(

)( )

t t t tt t tt

S n wh c en

τδ

=− − −−

(4)

( )

1 11 1 1

t tt t t t

d wlh M

+ ++ + +

= + −+

(5)

where

denotes the amount of social security benefit and working parents

participate in the actuarially fair type of saving.

This working parent maximizes Equation (3) subject to (4) and (5). His op-

timal decisions are

( )

( ) (

)

( )(

)

1 11 1

1 12 3

11 1

t t tt t t t t

r whp whpM

rp p

ττ

σσ σ

+ ++ +

+ − ++ +

+ + ++

(6)

DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.815214 3483 Theoretical Economics Letters

剩余10页未读，继续阅读

评论收藏

内容反馈

论文研究 - 社会保障，退休与经济增长

评论0

最新资源

论文研究 - 社会保障，退休与经济增长

评论0

最新资源

相关推荐

通货膨胀和退休年金-研究论文

就业与社会保障问题研究-论文.zip

社会保障制度改革研究-论文.zip

老年人的工作，退休和社交网络-研究论文

弱势群体的社会保障问题研究-论文.zip

论文研究-人力资源素质与经济增长:一个模型分析.pdf

论文研究 - 尼日利亚工业行动与经济增长之间的因果关系

论文研究-论人口增长与经济发展的协同机制.pdf

论文研究 - 重新审视进出口，经济增长联系：来自孟加拉国的经验证据（1981-2017年）

弱势群体的社会保障问题研究(1)-论文.zip

论大兴区城市农民工社会保障问题分析与研究-论文.zip

论文研究 - 通过休闲活动改善城市退休人员的幸福感

论文研究 - 衡量韩国退休住宅社区对医疗服务的需求

财务顾问对退休投资组合的选择和结果有何影响？-研究论文

论文研究-基于能源投入的经济增长模型的消费路径.pdf

论文研究-中国多部门经济增长因素分析.pdf

论文研究-我国技术进步对经济增长贡献的定量研究.pdf

论文研究 - 农产品出口与经济增长：加纳的分类分析

论文研究-社会经济适度增长率和直接效益指标——效益和速度的定量统一.pdf

论文研究 - 墨西哥公司员工退休意识的策略

论文研究 - 劳动合同和工会对社会保障权的影响

重塑社会保障上诉（再次）：在线法庭的出现-研究论文

论文研究-基于投机执行的两级退休机制.pdf

论文研究 - 退休会影响居住模式吗？

论文研究-科技进步对经济增长作用的分析.pdf

论文研究 - 斯里兰卡公共债务与经济增长之间的长期关联

论文研究 - 产业集聚与区域经济增长

论文研究-企业环境绩效与经济绩效关系的理论研究与模型构建.pdf

论文研究-社会系统的研究问题.pdf