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一篇很好的阐述物联网的文档,高度概括性 一篇很好的阐述物联网的文档,高度概括性一篇很好的阐述物联网的文档,高度概括性
THE INTERNET OF THINGS MAPPING THE VALUE BEYOND THE HYPE JUNE 2015 James Manyika San Francisco Michael Chui San Francisco Peter Bisson Stamford Jonathan Woetzel Shanghai Richard Dobbs London Jacques Bughin Brussels Dan Aharon New York IN BRIEF THEINTERNET OF THINGS: MAPPING THE VALUE BEYOND THEHYPE The Internet of Things-digitizing the physical world-has received enormous attention. In this research, the McKinsey global Institute set out to look beyond the hype to understand exactly how lot technology can create real economic value. Our central finding is that the hype may actually understate the full potential of the Internet of Things-but that capturing the maximum benefits will require an understanding of where real value can be created and successfully addressing a set of systems issues, including interoperability Viewing loT applications through the lens of the physical settings in which these systems will be deployed creates a broader view of potential benefits and challenges. Rather than just analyzing loT uses in vertical industries, we also look at settings, such as cities and worksites. This shows how various lol systems can maximize value, particularly when they interact. We estimate a potential economic impact-including consumer surplus-of as much as $ 11. 1 trillion per year in 2025 for loT applications in nine settings nteroperability between loT systems is critically important to capturing maximum value on average, interoperability is required for 40 percent of potential value across loT applications and by nearly 60 percent in some settings Most lol data are not used currently. For example, only 1 percent of data trom an oil rig with 30,000 sensors is examined. The data that are used today are mostly for anomaly detection and control, not optimization and prediction, which provide the greatest value Business-to-business(B2B)applications can create more value than pure consumer applications. While consumer applications such as fitness monitors and self-driving car attract the most attention and can create significant value, we estimate that B2B uses can generate nearly 70 percent of potential value enabled by loT There is large potential for loT in developing economies Over the next ten years, we estimate higher potential value for lot in advanced economies because of higher value per use. However, nearly 40 percent of value could be generated in developing economies a Customers will capture most of the benefits We estimate that the users of loT (businesses, other organizations, and consumers) could capture 9o percent of the value that loT applications generate. For example, the value of improved health ot chronic disease patients through remote monitoring could be as much as$1. 1 trillion per year in 2025 A dynamic industry is evolving around loT technology. Like other technology waves, there are opportunities for both incumbents and new players. Digitization blurs the lines between technology companies and other types of companies: makers of industrial machinery, for example, are creating new business models by using loT links and data to offer their products as a service To realize the full potential from loT applications, technology will need to continue to evolve, providing lower costs and more robust data analytics. In almost all settings, loT systems raise questions about data security and privacy. And in most organizations taking advantage o the lot opportunity will require leaders to truly embrace data-driven decision making Where is the value potential of the Internet of Things? <1% of data currently used Interoperability mostly for alarms or real-time required to capture control; more can be used for 40 of total value optimization and prediction 2X more value S from B2B applications Developing: 40% t Developed: 60% than consumer Home Chore automation Vehicles and security Offices Autonomous vehicles and 200B-350B Security and condition-based maintenance energy $210B-740B 70B-150B 下。 9 settings citie gave us a cross-sector view Factories Public health of a total potential impact of Operations and and transportation S3.9 trillion-11.1 trillion equipment optimization s930B-1.7T per year in 2025 s1.2T-3.7T SHOP Outside Retail environments Logistics and navigation Automated checkout 560B-850B S410B-1.2T Human Worksites Health and Operations optimization fitness health and safety 170B-1.6T $160B-930B Types of opportunities Transform business processes Enable new business models Predictive maintenance, better asset For example, remote monitoring enables utilization, higher productivity anything-as-a-service o Getty Images EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Internet of Things has the potential to fundamentally shift the way we interact with our surroundings. T he ability to monitor and manage objects in the physical world electronically makes it possible to bring data-driven decision making to new realms of human activity-to optimize the performance of systems and processes, save time for people and businesses and improve quality of life(see BoX E1, Defining the Internet of Things"). From monitoring machines on the factory floor to tracking the progress of ships at sea, sensors can help companies get far more out of their physical assets-improving the performance of machines, extending their lives, and learning how they could be redesigned to do even more With wearable devices and portable monitors, the Internet of Things has the potential to dramatically improve health outcomes, particularly in the treatment of chronic diseases such as diabetes that now take an enormous human and economic toll Manufacturers, oil and gas companies, and other businesses have already begun to see the initial payoff from loT technologies in their operations A great deal has been written about the Internet of Things in the past five years, including by McKinsey, which began publishing its research on the emerging technology in 2010. loT- enabled developments such as self-driving cars have captured the popular imagination, and with fitness bands to monitor physical activity and Internet-connected devices to manage HVAC systems, appliances, entertainment, and security systems, consumers are getting a glimpse of what the loT-enabled future may bring. Manufacturers, oil and gas companies and other businesses have already begun to see the initial payoff from lot technologies in their operations And technology suppliers are ramping up lot businesses and creating strategies to help customers design, implement, and operate complex systems-and working to fill the gap between the ability to collect data from the physical world and the capacity to capture and analyze it in a timely way 1 See, for example, "The Internet of Things, "McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010, and Disruptive technologies Aavances that wll transform ife, business, and the global economy, McKinsey global Institute, May 2013 Box E1. Defining the Internet of Things We define the Internet of Things as sensors and actuators connected by networks to computing systems. These systems can monitor or manage the health and actions of connected objects and machines Connected sensors can also monitor the natural world people, and animals For the purposes of this research, we exclude systems in which all of the sensors primary purpose is to receive intentional human input, such as smartphone apps where data input comes primarily through a touchscreen, or other networked computer software where the sensors consist of the standard keyboard and mouse We conducted this research to examine in detail how the Internet of Things can create value, and in the process we have uncovered novel findings about how that value can be captured by companies, people, and economies. Building on our earlier work, the McKinsey Global Institute, in collaboration with McKinsey's Telecommunications, Media, and high Technology Practice and the mcKinsey business Technology office, analyzed more than 150 loT use cases across the global economy. Using detailed bottom-up economic modeling, we estimated the economic impact of these applications by the potential benefits they can generate, including productivity improvements, time savings, and improved asset utilization, as well as an approximate economic value for reduced disease, accidents, and deaths. These estimates of potential value are not equivalent to industry revenue or GDP, because they include value captured by customers and consumers An important contribution of this research has been to demonstrate the importance of analyzing the applications of the Internet of Things in the context of settings-the physical environments in which these systems are deployed, such as homes, offices, and factories A key insight from analyzing the benefits of loT applications within settings is the critical contribution made by interoperability among loT systems. On average, interoperability is necessary to create 40 percent of the potential value that can be generated by the Internet of Things in various settings. We also see that making lol applications interoperable-linking a patient's home health monitor to the hospitals health informatics system, for example-is a complex systems design challenge that requires coordination on many levels (technology, capital investment cycles, organizational change, and so forth For the applications that we size, we estimate that the Internet of Things has a total potential economic impact of 3.9 trillion to $11. 1 trillion per year in 2025. On the top end, the value of this impact-including consumer surplus-would be equivalent to about 11 percent of the world economy in 2025. 2 Achieving this level of impact will require certain conditions to be in place and overcoming technical, organizational, and regulatory hurdles. In particular organizations that use loT technology will need better tools and methods to extract insights and actionable information from lot data, most of which are not used today It will take time for companies to create systems that can maximize loT value and, more importantly, for management innovations, organizational changes, and new business models to be developed and implemented. This could lead to a new"productivity paradox"a lag between investment in technology and productivity gains that can be seen at a macroeconomic level. a Determining the settings where the Internet of Things will create impact $11T In reviewing nearly 300 loT applications, we discovered that using only a conventional approach to categorizing the potential impact by vertical industry markets-such as Maximum potential automotive or consumer electronics-made it more difficult to analyze all the ways in value of sized which value could be created. If we look at how lot technology is creating value from the applications in perspective of the automaker, for instance, we would see how it improves manufacturing efficiencies and reduces costs. However, by viewing lot applications through the lens of 2025 settings, we capture a broader set of effects, particularly those that require the interaction of loT systems and often produce the greatest impact. For example, by examining the ties setting, we discover that not only can sensors in individual vehicles be used to save Based on World Bank projection of $99. 5 trillion per year in global GDP in 2025 3 The productivity paradox was observed by economists Robert Solow and Stephen Roach, who in 1987 noted that despite the widespread adoption of computers to automate office functions, there was no evidence of their impact on productivity. Subsequent research found problems in how government statistics measured the impact of computers and a lag between investment in technology and the organizational adjustments required to realize significant productivity gainS. See Erik Brynjolfsson and Lorin M. Hitt, "Beyond the productivity paradox, Communications of the ACM, volume 41, issue 8, August 1998. See also US Productivity growth 1995-2000, McKinsey Global Institute, October 2001 McKinsey Globa InstiTute Executive summary maintenance costs by predicting when maintenance is needed but we also see that sensors can be linked to broader systems that help to manage traffic congestion across the city We have identified nine settings, capturing loT use in environments such as homes, offices, factories, worksites (mining, oil and gas, and construction), retail environments, cities, vehicles, and the outdoors. We have also included a"human "setting for tor systems that attach to the human body and enable such health and wellness applications as monitoring chronic disease or exercise, and productivity-enhancing applications such as use of augmented-reality technology to guide workers in performing complex physical tasks (Exhibit E1) Exhibit E1 a settings"lens helps capture all sources of value; we identify nine settings where lot creates value Setting Description Examples Human Devices attached to or Devices (wearables and ingestibles)to monitor and maintain inside the human body human health and wellness; disease management, increased itness, higher productivity Home Buildings where people Home controllers and security systems ve Retail Spaces where Stores, banks, restaurants arenas-anywhere consumers environments consumers engage in consider and buy; self-checkout, in-store offers, inventory commerce optimization Offices Spaces where Energy management and security in office buildings; improved knowledge workers productivity, including for mobile employees work Factories Standardized Places with repetitive work routines, including hospitals and farms production operating efficiencies, optimizing equipment use and inventory environments Worksites Custom production Mining, oil and gas, construction; operating efficiencies, predictive environments maintenance, health and safety Vehicles Systems inside moving Vehicles including cars, trucks, ships, aircraft, and trains; condition- vehicles based maintenance, usage-based design, pre-sales analytics Cities Urban environments Public spaces and infrastructure in urban settings; adaptive traffic control, smart meters, environmental monitoring, resource management Outside Between urban Outside uses include railroad tracks, autonomous vehicles(outside environments(and urban locations ), and flight navigation; real-time routing, connected outside other settings) navigation, shipment tracking SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey Global Institute The Internet of Things: Mapping the value beyond the hype Overall findings Through our work studying individual use cases and estimating their potential economic impact, we have developed insights into how the Internet of Things is likely to evolve These findings include perspectives on how the potential benefits of lot technologies are likely to be distributed among advanced and developing economies, how much loT value is likely to be created in business-to-business Vs consumer markets, and which players in the value chain will capture the most value from loT applications. We find that when loT systems communicate with each other, their value is multiplied, which makes interoperability essential for maximizing benefits. Our research also generated findings about how the industry that supplies loT technology is likely to evolve. Our key findings Interoperability among loT systems is required to capture 40 percent of the potential value In our analysis, of the total potential value that can be unlocked through the use of loT, 40 percent of this value on average, requires multiple loT systems to work together. In the worksite setting, 60 percent of the potential value requires the ability to integrate and analyze data from various loT systems Interoperability is required to unlock more than $4 trillion per year in potential economic impact from loT use in 2025, out of a total potential impact of $11. 1 trillion across the nine settings that we analyzed u Most of the lot data collected today are not used at all, and data that are used are not fully exploited. For instance, less than 1 percent of the data being generated by the 30,000 sensors on an offshore oil rig is currently used to make decisions. And of the data that are actually used-for example, in manufacturing automation systems on factory floors-most are used only for real-time control or anomaly detection. a great deal of additional value remains to be captured, by using more data, as well as deploying more sophisticated loT applications, such as using performance data for predictive maintenance ar to analyze workflows to optimize operating efficiency. Indeed, loT can be a key source of big data that can be analyzed to capture value, and open data, which can be used by more than one entity The amount of loT value that can be realized in developing economies is comparable to that of advanced economies. Overall, over the next ten years,more loT value is likely to be created in advanced economies because of the higher value associated with each deployment. However, the potential number of loT uses is likely to be higher in developing economies. The level of value in advanced and developing economies will vary depending on setting, industry, and application. The applications that drive the most value in developing economies differ from those in advanced economies and, in some cases, because there are no legacy technologies to displace developing economies can"leapfrog in loT implementations. Nevertheless, we estimate that 62 percent of the potential annual economic impact of loT applications in 2025 will be in advanced economies and that 38 percent will be in developing economies. The higher value in advanced economies reflects higher wage rates and costs, which raise the economic value of increased efficiency(Exhibit E2). As the values in developing economy markets rise, the economic impact associated with lot also will grow The high volume of estimated installations in developing economies reflects the shift of global economic growth to those areas, which has important implications for companies that compete in loT equipment and service markets. China will be one of the largest users of loT systems in factories as well as in other settings. Countries with oil and gas operations -among the most important early adopters of loT-will also be major geographic markets A See Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity, McKinsey Global Institute, Ma 2011, and Open data: Unlocking innovation and performance with liauid information, McKInsey Globayvlay Institute. October 2013 McKinsey Globa InstiTute Executive summary

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