Nate Silver The Signal and the Noise why so many predictions fai...

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Copyright © Nate Silver, 2012

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Illustration credits

Figure 4-2: Courtesy of Dr. Tim Parker, University of Oxford

Figure 7-1: From “1918 Influenza: The Mother of All Pandemics” by Jeffery Taubenberger and David Morens,

Emerging Infectious Disease Journal, vol. 12, no. 1, January 2006, Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention

Figures 9-2, 9-3A, 9-3C, 9-4, 9-5, 9-6 and 9-7: By Cburnett, Wikimedia Commons

Figure 12-2: Courtesy of Dr. J. Scott Armstrong, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

5. Knowledge, Theory of. I. Title.

519.5'42—dc23 2012027308

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Introduction

1. A CATASTROPHIC FAILURE OF PREDICTION

2. ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A TELEVISION PUNDIT?

3. ALL I CARE ABOUT IS W’S AND L’S

4. FOR YEARS YOU’VE BEEN TELLING US THAT RAIN IS

GREEN

5. DESPERATELY SEEKING SIGNAL

6. HOW TO DROWN IN THREE FEET OF WATER

7. ROLE MODELS

8. LESS AND LESS AND LESS WRONG

Acknowledgments